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Is Miami a playoff contender?
Improved QB play from Chad Henne and a strong defense could mean a playoff berth
Al Messerschmidt/Getty ImagesChad Henne needs to cut down on his interception total this season.
Prevailing logic will tell you that the Miami Dolphins aren't a real challenger for a playoff spot this season. Most of this logic comes from the perception that Chad Henne isn't a good quarterback, and that likely stems from Brandon Marshall's very public discontent with Henne's performance last season. Marshall, naturally, has problems with all quarterbacks who do not follow Rule No. 1 of playing with Marshall: If he's in single coverage, he's open.
Henne did have a poor season by traditional statistics last year, as long as the only traditional statistic you look at is "interceptions." But Henne was also quite unlucky. Nineteen interceptions seems like a lot, but with the help of our game charting project, we track the number of interceptions that a defender drops -- and the quarterbacks who throw those same dropped interceptions. Henne threw 19 picks, but had only one ball marked as a dropped interception.
For the sake of comparison, Mark Sanchez threw 13 picks, but had an additional 15 balls marked as dropped interceptions. It seems rather likely that both of those numbers will regress to the mean, making Henne a good bet to lower his interception total. As former FO staffer Bill Barnwell recently pointed out on Grantland, Henne's 2010 season smacks of the third season that Drew Brees had for the Chargers in 2003. We're not saying the Henne tale ends with him being an elite quarterback, but there is more bounce-back potential than you might think. Especially since Henne actually improved his completion percentage and yards per attempt in his disaster season.
Beyond that, Miami suffers from a lack of star power, which is somewhat ironic given all the famous minority investors the club has. On the field, the Dolphins' best players are probably left tackle Jake Long, who is anonymous by virtue of playing offensive tackle, and Pro Bowl linebacker Cameron Wake, who was a complete unknown until coming over from the CFL before the 2009 season. The public faces? Marshall, the diva wide receiver who has endured a number of off-field problems, was probably the biggest name prior to free agency. Now that honor may belong to Reggie Bush, who is dangerously close to becoming a less-relevant athlete than Nets forward and fellow honorary Kardashian Kris Humphries.
Despite that, our preseason simulations in Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 give the Dolphins an average of 8.3 wins. While that's hardly elite, it certainly marks a team capable of securing a playoff spot.
The gulf in public perception, aside from Henne, is probably just a lack of appreciation for the solid defense that Miami has played over the years. Wake is the engine that makes the Bill Parcells-engineered 3-4 run, but the Dolphins might have the best defensive line of any 3-4 team in the NFL. Randy Starks is one of the NFL's most underrated players, and someone who can play any spot on the line; Miami was so concerned about losing nose tackle Paul Soliai that it gave him the franchise tag before the lockout went into effect; Kendall Langford is solid at the point of attack; and the Dolphins have a pair of high-round picks trying to break the rotation behind those three in Jared Odrick and Phillip Merling. That group helped lead Miami to a minus-16.6 percent DVOA rating against the run in 2010, good for fourth in the NFL.
Behind that defensive line is middle linebacker Karlos Dansby, who has a complete skill set, though he is aging. Koa Misi was decent against the run last year, and will be pushed for work on passing downs by the ageless Jason Taylor. Miami also imported Kevin Burnett from the Chargers, where he finished the season as one of the better linebackers in our pass coverage stats. In Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, the Dolphins have a pair of solid young cornerbacks to anchor their secondary.
The other side of the coin in Miami is that the team didn't really do much to address the holes in its roster from last season. With Yeremiah Bell at one safety position, a combination of Chris Clemons and Reshad Jones at the other and Benny Sapp at nickelback, the Dolphins were among the worst teams in the NFL at defending passes thrown at slot receivers, fourth receivers and tight ends. The list of new players the Dolphins brought in to compete with Bell, Clemons, Jones and Sapp for time in the secondary is nonexistent.
Likewise, Miami's offense held the team back last season: Not only did Henne throw all those interceptions, but both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown stopped producing at previous levels. The Dolphins finished 2010 right in the middle of the pack in adjusted line yards, but finished first in power situations and dead last in open-field yards and second-level yards. Those stats show part of the story, but the poor running also hurt Miami in the passing game -- despite running play-action on 20 percent of their passes, the Dolphins weren't effective at it at all. They had a 28.6 percent DVOA on regular passing plays, but a minus-7.3 percent DVOA on play-action passes -- that gulf of 35.9 percent ranked third-to-last in the NFL, and only the Carolina Panthers were appreciably worse.
The changes Miami made on offense were minor touches rather than the complete makeover that it probably needed. The Dolphins have been looking for a deep threat at receiver since they goofed up by drafting Ted Ginn 10th overall in 2007, and they again didn't address that this offseason. Marshall is one of the most physically skilled wideouts in the NFL, and Davone Bess is a great slot option, but Henne would definitely benefit from a reliable third receiver, even if it was just another one who did his best work underneath. The Dolphins also shuffled their offensive line a bit by drafting Mike Pouncey 15th overall, sliding Vernon Carey inside and adding Parcells favorite Marc Colombo at right tackle. Carey's knee injury may have hurt his odds of sticking at right tackle, but at this point in his career, the only thing Colombo should be an answer for is the question "Who will be out of the league by 2013?"
For that matter, there are also concerns about the running back duo of Bush and second-rounder Daniel Thomas. Miami should be given credit for not sticking with Williams or Brown, but Bush has never held up to a real NFL workload, nor has he shown himself to be much of a running back at this point in his career. Thomas has struggled in training camp, and head coach Tony Sparano recently noted that he hasn't learned to pass block at an NFL level yet.
But despite these offensive issues, there is some hope for Miami this year, behind a likely comeback year from Henne and a solid defense. Or at least, there is more hope than the Dolphins seem to be getting credit for.
Rivers McCown is a writer for Football Outsiders.
Improved QB play from Chad Henne and a strong defense could mean a playoff berth
Prevailing logic will tell you that the Miami Dolphins aren't a real challenger for a playoff spot this season. Most of this logic comes from the perception that Chad Henne isn't a good quarterback, and that likely stems from Brandon Marshall's very public discontent with Henne's performance last season. Marshall, naturally, has problems with all quarterbacks who do not follow Rule No. 1 of playing with Marshall: If he's in single coverage, he's open.
Henne did have a poor season by traditional statistics last year, as long as the only traditional statistic you look at is "interceptions." But Henne was also quite unlucky. Nineteen interceptions seems like a lot, but with the help of our game charting project, we track the number of interceptions that a defender drops -- and the quarterbacks who throw those same dropped interceptions. Henne threw 19 picks, but had only one ball marked as a dropped interception.
For the sake of comparison, Mark Sanchez threw 13 picks, but had an additional 15 balls marked as dropped interceptions. It seems rather likely that both of those numbers will regress to the mean, making Henne a good bet to lower his interception total. As former FO staffer Bill Barnwell recently pointed out on Grantland, Henne's 2010 season smacks of the third season that Drew Brees had for the Chargers in 2003. We're not saying the Henne tale ends with him being an elite quarterback, but there is more bounce-back potential than you might think. Especially since Henne actually improved his completion percentage and yards per attempt in his disaster season.
Beyond that, Miami suffers from a lack of star power, which is somewhat ironic given all the famous minority investors the club has. On the field, the Dolphins' best players are probably left tackle Jake Long, who is anonymous by virtue of playing offensive tackle, and Pro Bowl linebacker Cameron Wake, who was a complete unknown until coming over from the CFL before the 2009 season. The public faces? Marshall, the diva wide receiver who has endured a number of off-field problems, was probably the biggest name prior to free agency. Now that honor may belong to Reggie Bush, who is dangerously close to becoming a less-relevant athlete than Nets forward and fellow honorary Kardashian Kris Humphries.
Despite that, our preseason simulations in Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 give the Dolphins an average of 8.3 wins. While that's hardly elite, it certainly marks a team capable of securing a playoff spot.
The gulf in public perception, aside from Henne, is probably just a lack of appreciation for the solid defense that Miami has played over the years. Wake is the engine that makes the Bill Parcells-engineered 3-4 run, but the Dolphins might have the best defensive line of any 3-4 team in the NFL. Randy Starks is one of the NFL's most underrated players, and someone who can play any spot on the line; Miami was so concerned about losing nose tackle Paul Soliai that it gave him the franchise tag before the lockout went into effect; Kendall Langford is solid at the point of attack; and the Dolphins have a pair of high-round picks trying to break the rotation behind those three in Jared Odrick and Phillip Merling. That group helped lead Miami to a minus-16.6 percent DVOA rating against the run in 2010, good for fourth in the NFL.
Behind that defensive line is middle linebacker Karlos Dansby, who has a complete skill set, though he is aging. Koa Misi was decent against the run last year, and will be pushed for work on passing downs by the ageless Jason Taylor. Miami also imported Kevin Burnett from the Chargers, where he finished the season as one of the better linebackers in our pass coverage stats. In Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, the Dolphins have a pair of solid young cornerbacks to anchor their secondary.
The other side of the coin in Miami is that the team didn't really do much to address the holes in its roster from last season. With Yeremiah Bell at one safety position, a combination of Chris Clemons and Reshad Jones at the other and Benny Sapp at nickelback, the Dolphins were among the worst teams in the NFL at defending passes thrown at slot receivers, fourth receivers and tight ends. The list of new players the Dolphins brought in to compete with Bell, Clemons, Jones and Sapp for time in the secondary is nonexistent.
Likewise, Miami's offense held the team back last season: Not only did Henne throw all those interceptions, but both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown stopped producing at previous levels. The Dolphins finished 2010 right in the middle of the pack in adjusted line yards, but finished first in power situations and dead last in open-field yards and second-level yards. Those stats show part of the story, but the poor running also hurt Miami in the passing game -- despite running play-action on 20 percent of their passes, the Dolphins weren't effective at it at all. They had a 28.6 percent DVOA on regular passing plays, but a minus-7.3 percent DVOA on play-action passes -- that gulf of 35.9 percent ranked third-to-last in the NFL, and only the Carolina Panthers were appreciably worse.
The changes Miami made on offense were minor touches rather than the complete makeover that it probably needed. The Dolphins have been looking for a deep threat at receiver since they goofed up by drafting Ted Ginn 10th overall in 2007, and they again didn't address that this offseason. Marshall is one of the most physically skilled wideouts in the NFL, and Davone Bess is a great slot option, but Henne would definitely benefit from a reliable third receiver, even if it was just another one who did his best work underneath. The Dolphins also shuffled their offensive line a bit by drafting Mike Pouncey 15th overall, sliding Vernon Carey inside and adding Parcells favorite Marc Colombo at right tackle. Carey's knee injury may have hurt his odds of sticking at right tackle, but at this point in his career, the only thing Colombo should be an answer for is the question "Who will be out of the league by 2013?"
For that matter, there are also concerns about the running back duo of Bush and second-rounder Daniel Thomas. Miami should be given credit for not sticking with Williams or Brown, but Bush has never held up to a real NFL workload, nor has he shown himself to be much of a running back at this point in his career. Thomas has struggled in training camp, and head coach Tony Sparano recently noted that he hasn't learned to pass block at an NFL level yet.
But despite these offensive issues, there is some hope for Miami this year, behind a likely comeback year from Henne and a solid defense. Or at least, there is more hope than the Dolphins seem to be getting credit for.
Rivers McCown is a writer for Football Outsiders.
