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Miami Dolphins Have the 3rd-Most Imbalanced Offense in the League

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Shouright

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The average team in the NFL runs the ball on 41.25% of its offensive plays.

The standard deviation from that average is 5.45%.

The Miami Dolphins run the ball on 33.82% of their offensive plays, which is 1.36 standard deviations below the mean, and which places it in the 8.7th percentile in the league, third worst in the league, behind only the Atlanta Falcons (30.35%) and the Cleveland Browns (31.29%).

One might think that teams that run the ball more poorly also run the ball less, and that is supported somewhat by the 0.41 correlation between yards per carry and the percentage of offensive plays accounted for by runs. However, the Dolphins' 4.1 yards per carry is the same as the league average, which suggests the Dolphins are not running the ball less because they're significantly less effective than the average team running the ball.

One might also think that teams that pass the ball more effectively run the ball less, but that isn't supported by the 0.14 correlation between net yards per pass attempt and the percentage of offensive plays accounted for by runs.

The correlation between winning percentage and offensive rushing attempts is 0.55, which is moderately strong, though the difference in rushing attempts for and against is correlated with winning percentage at 0.71, which is very strong.

In my opinion the Dolphins' offense hasn't featured the running game this year enough to: 1) have a rushing attempts differential that is associated with winning, or 2) optimally support the development of Ryan Tannehill.
 
That's the offense we run and I like it. I hated the running offense we had before.
 
ProStyle said:
That's the offense we run and I like it. I hated the running offense we had before.
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Well, be aware that rushing attempts differential is correlated with winning percentage a whole lot more strongly than "ProStyle's offensive preferences." ;)

And that differential holds true even for first half play, when it can't be argued that a comfortable lead encourages a greater percentage of runs.

The Dolphins were out-rushed 29 attempts to 17 just the other day against Carolina, in fact, despite the fact that the game was close throughout, and one could easily argue that a ball control running game might have been the winning recipe in the second half of that game.
 
meh, I am not convinced.

We need better playmakers in the passing game. A deep ball, a breakaway catch, more consistency, it should be fun and OK.
Pats, NO, GB pass a lot, and look great. I'd rather see that than 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Good move hiring Philbin and this offensive coaching staff imo.
 
You can be a passing team and still run the ball effectively. Balance is important, imo. Especially when you have a QB who is still developing.
 
ProStyle said:
I disagree with you, and I hope we stick with this system.
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Well, again, be aware that the system as it's currently being run isn't associated with winning.

Disagree if you'd like, but if you want the team to win, then you're at odds with yourself.
 
shouright said:
Well, again, be aware that the system as it's currently being run isn't associated with winning.

Disagree if you'd like, but if you want the team to win, then you're at odds with yourself.
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I disagree with you again. This system won the SB in GB. This is a great system and Dolphins need to stick with it. Not only do I disagree with you, but I think you are completely wrong.
 
If you are going to play outdoors in Dec and Jan you better have a team that can move the ball on the ground as well as through the air. Balance is not necessarily an equal number of carries to passes but being effective when you either run or pass. Simply attempting to run more often doesn't necessarily guarantee success but certainly improves your chances.
 
ProStyle said:
I disagree with you again. This system won the SB in GB. This is a great system and Dolphins need to stick with it. Not only do I disagree with you, but I think you are completely wrong.
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The Packers didn't run the ball any less than the average team in the league the year it won the Super Bowl with the system.
 
MadDog 88 said:
If you are going to play outdoors in Dec and Jan you better have a team that can move the ball on the ground as well as through the air. Balance is not necessarily an equal number of carries to passes but being effective when you either run or pass. Simply attempting to run more often doesn't necessarily guarantee success but certainly improves your chances.
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Well the Dolphins are actually more effective compared to the league average when they run than when they pass, yet they run the ball significantly less than the average team in the league.

Furthermore, rushing attempts differential is much more strongly correlated with winning (0.71) than either yards per carry differential (0.28) or yards per carry on offense (0.19).

So it actually is attempting to run the ball more often, rather than being effective when running, that much more strongly predicts winning.
 
ProStyle said:
I disagree with you again. This system won the SB in GB. This is a great system and Dolphins need to stick with it. Not only do I disagree with you, but I think you are completely wrong.
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They used a good balance in beating Philly in the WC round, had 96 yards indoors at Atlanta, was somewhat balanced at Chicago and was pass happy at Cowboys Stadium.

Do you see a pattern?
 
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