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Miami Dolphins: No love from the Football Outsiders

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The Outsiders, who did all the projections, came in with a projected record of 6-10 for Miami. That would put the Dolphins in a second-place tie with the Jets, and only slightly ahead of the Bills (5-11).

The dreaded Patriots? They are projected for an 11-5 season. Fair enough.

Here's my problem/concern with the Outsiders' projections. They give the Dolphins just a 2 percent probability of winning 11 or more games. However, they also give the Dolphins an 8 percent chance -- EIGHT PERCENT! -- of dropping all the way back to three wins or fewer.
The rest of the breakdown for Miami: 46 percent chance of falling in the 4-6 win range, 29 percent chance of falling in the 7-8 win range and a 15 percent chance of winning 9-10 games.

Much of this drop-off is based on the notion last year's Dolphins were ridiculously healthy. No team in the NFL missed fewer games from its starters than the 46 Dolphins starters missed in '08.
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http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sport...hins-no-love-from-the-football-outsiders.html
 
I saw a stat from NFL.com that showed the Jets as the healthiest team last season. They had it up right after the super bowl.

Maybe football outsiders isn't counting Donald Thomas as a starter. But he was, and he would have been our starter all season if not for the injury in the first game of the season.
 
There is a 100% chance I don't give a **** what the "football outsiders" say. NFL prognostication is a foolhardy pursuit, and trying to spiffy it up with percentages is patently ridiculous.
 
How many teams lost their two starting guards and their leading WR? I'm not saying we had the worst luck with injuries, but we were far from injury free. Also, had a team like the Patriots suffered those injuries, people would not count them lucky.
 
The "football outsiders" are just trying to sell their publications.
They really don't do any homework and just regurgitate the prevailing notion.
The Fins had a great season last year, a surprising season. The media will not catch on until the have no other option and they will have to pay attention.
I am surprised that because the current Fins are the creation of a Bill Parcells lead organization, that we do not get more respect for the results that have been achieved.
I dont mind it though, let us play the games as the underdog, I got my Vegas $$ riding on 7+ wins. The fins will win the east, and to those of us fans that follow the team closely, it will not be a surprise. 11-5 !!!
 
phinman1 said:
There is a 100% chance I don't give a **** what the "football outsiders" say. NFL prognostication is a foolhardy pursuit, and trying to spiffy it up with percentages is patently ridiculous.
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I agree.

Nice headlights on the avatar!
 
phinman1 said:
There is a 100% chance I don't give a **** what the "football outsiders" say. NFL prognostication is a foolhardy pursuit, and trying to spiffy it up with percentages is patently ridiculous.
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I think the percentages make a lot more sense than making one single prediction since the football season is such a small sample size.
 
Greyboy said:
I saw a stat from NFL.com that showed the Jets as the healthiest team last season. They had it up right after the super bowl.

Maybe football outsiders isn't counting Donald Thomas as a starter. But he was, and he would have been our starter all season if not for the injury in the first game of the season.
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All 11 offensive starters on the Jets played all 16 games and the 11 defensive starters only missed a combined 11 games. I highly doubt they'll have that much luck this year with injuries.
 
LANGER72 said:
The "football outsiders" are just trying to sell their publications.
They really don't do any homework and just regurgitate the prevailing notion.
The Fins had a great season last year, a surprising season. The media will not catch on until the have no other option and they will have to pay attention.
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The Football Outsiders actually do a ton of homework. They watch every single play of every single football game. Just because they don't expect great things from Miami doesn't mean that they are merely regurgitating anything. They actually do really great work and say some great things about the Dolphins in their book.

I can understand why the Dolphins aren't expected to do as well as last year. They played the easiest schedule in the NFL last year and now will play that hardest; that makes a difference.
 
Rhody Phins Fan said:
The Football Outsiders actually do a ton of homework. They watch every single play of every single football game. Just because they don't expect great things from Miami doesn't mean that they are merely regurgitating anything. They actually do really great work and say some great things about the Dolphins in their book.

I can understand why the Dolphins aren't expected to do as well as last year. They played the easiest schedule in the NFL last year and now will play that hardest; that makes a difference.
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Exactly. The ignorance on these boards astounds me. Footballoutsiders.com is the only source for football information I trust.

They could be wrong about the Dolphins, but their low opinion of the 2009 Fins is mostly based on regression to the mean.
 
I put more trust in football outsider's numbers than any other football prognosticators. While there will always be much conjecture and opinion concerning predicting pretty much anything, I would by far prefer to crunch numbers and averages compared to staring into crystal balls or using gut instinct.

I think specifically what football outsiders is missing in this particular prediction is that this 2009 team is dramatically different from the horrific Dolphins teams of the last decade. Complete roster overhaul and coaching staff overhaul, 2nd season stability with less question marks and less turnover.

Numbers can be deceiving and impromptu conclusions can be made without all relevant variables and facts. While I don't expect us to remain as healthy as last year based on odds, or have a better completions % based on odds, or have as few turnovers, based on odds, or the strength of schedule to be as easy, this team is still a better team than it is given credit for.

I do expect Ginn to step up, a 2nd WR to emerge, and our O-line and running game to flourish along with a much solidified defense and spiffy new secondary.

Perhaps I ask too much, but I see a lot of potential in this year's Fins. I'm guessing not very many pundits pay as much attention to the fins as people like me and others on this forum do.
 
Gardenhead said:
Exactly. The ignorance on these boards astounds me. Footballoutsiders.com is the only source for football information I trust.

They could be wrong about the Dolphins, but their low opinion of the 2009 Fins is mostly based on regression to the mean.
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Ignorance? Please. Tell me, what were these geeks projection for the 2008 phins? Was it close to 11? I think not.

Like you said, they could be wrong. Though they could be right. Who knows whether they are right or wrong. Therefore, as I insinuated before--who cares.
 
Gardenhead said:
Exactly. The ignorance on these boards astounds me. Footballoutsiders.com is the only source for football information I trust.

They could be wrong about the Dolphins, but their low opinion of the 2009 Fins is mostly based on regression to the mean.
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To call someone ignorant just because you are enamored with FO is a bit harsh. They can only make their projections, as we all do.
How right were their projections about the Fins for the 2008 season?
Have a nice day.
 
They must have watched our preseason game against the Bucs right before they wrote this article.
 
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