Miami Dolphins’ on-field decisions raising questions

[zachblitz54]

At first I was in the get the 15 yds and kick the damn FG camp. But, rethinking it, Carpenter hasn't exactly been Mr. Automatic lately. Taking a shot down the field with one on one coverage on our fastest WR, hard to pass up.

 

[Shouright]

In your opinion

You disagree?

 

[fishfanmiami]

" Pro Football Focus ranks Carroll’s play this season 100th of 101 cornerbacks. He has been targeted 16 times and allowed 11 catches for 155 yards."

good job Nolan.

 

[13mademeafan13]

I was all for the deep pass to Gates, I actually was hoping when that series started they would take a shot downfield. As you can see though the other 3 plays just trying to get the 15 yards didn't work either and they were expecting those. Why not take that chance when you feel you have it.

 

[rent this space]

You disagree?

In my opinion throwing it away from where the defense is focused isn't a bad idea. Everyone in the stadium knew the Dolphins only needed 15 yards, Cleveland was no doubt sitting on all the short stuff which I think greatly reduces the odds in that situation. The longer throw is a good choice because it's throwing into single verses double coverage

 

[Shouright]

In my opinion throwing it away from where the defense is focused isn't a bad idea. Everyone in the stadium knew the Dolphins only needed 15 yards, Cleveland was no doubt sitting on all the short stuff which I think greatly reduces the odds in that situation. The longer throw is a good choice because it's throwing into single verses double coverage

You can't double-cover everybody. You can still throw into single coverage by throwing a shorter, higher-percentage pass.

Again, we needed only 15 yards here.

 

[roy_miami]

In my opinion throwing it away from where the defense is focused isn't a bad idea. Everyone in the stadium knew the Dolphins only needed 15 yards, Cleveland was no doubt sitting on all the short stuff which I think greatly reduces the odds in that situation. The longer throw is a good choice because it's throwing into single verses double coverage

Yeah but Henne can't hit the broad side of a barn 20 yards plus so thats a moot point. And does Gates have a reception yet this season?

 

[Dolph N.Fan]

If CLE can go 80 yds for a td (with ease I might add) than Miami should have been able to go 15 yds for a FG. Hell, Miami just needed a 1st down to give themselves a chance to win it on a 54 yd FG. Much better to end the game on a missed FG than a Henne int.

 

[dolphone]

In your opinion

No, actually, it's a statistically demonstrable fact. I don't have the data ATM but I can easily get it when I get home.

However it's got nothing to do with "several receivers in different areas" but rather with QBs accuracy, which decreases by length, and coverage, which is usually easier in shorter passes (cuts allow for more separation, and middle-of-the-field routes can put the receiver against LBs).

I think, however, that you shouldn't consider just the percentages of the playcall (as it might be - it could just be a read by Henne, but whatever). You should consider the percentages of the pass AND the percentages of the resulting field goal.

Say we advance 15 yards. It's higher percentage, yes, but we also face a 51 yard figgie - if you remember, Carpenter missed a figgie just as long earlier in the game. The probability of making that field goal are small.

If we advance 30 yards, it's now a 36 yarder - much better odds.

If we assign arbitrary odds to the plays:

Long completion: 30%
Short completion(s) for 15 yards: 80%
Long figgie: 30%
Short figgie: 90%

It's slightly better, odds wise, to go for the long ball.

Assign probabilities as you see fit, or wait until I get the data

 

[Shouright]

No, actually, it's a statistically demonstrable fact. I don't have the data ATM but I can easily get it when I get home.

However it's got nothing to do with "several receivers in different areas" but rather with QBs accuracy, which decreases by length, and coverage, which is usually easier in shorter passes (cuts allow for more separation, and middle-of-the-field routes can put the receiver against LBs).

I think, however, that you shouldn't consider just the percentages of the playcall (as it might be - it could just be a read by Henne, but whatever). You should consider the percentages of the pass AND the percentages of the resulting field goal.

Say we advance 15 yards. It's higher percentage, yes, but we also face a 51 yard figgie - if you remember, Carpenter missed a figgie just as long earlier in the game. The probability of making that field goal are small.

If we advance 30 yards, it's now a 36 yarder - much better odds.

If we assign arbitrary odds to the plays:

Long completion: 30%
Short completion(s) for 15 yards: 80%
Long figgie: 30%
Short figgie: 90%

It's slightly better, odds wise, to go for the long ball.

Assign probabilities as you see fit, or wait until I get the data

I think you also have to factor in the idea that higher-percentage plays could've also gotten us into the range of an easier field goal. We didn't necessarily have to get there with a downfield pass.

Really the argument comes down to this: you play conservatively when you should, and you play aggressively when you should.

This team has it backwards. It plays aggressively when it should play conservatively, and vice-versa.

 

[LikeUntoGod]

We should be playing and throwing to C Gates more often but I expect it will come in time. We played him hard during preseason and we need to throw him in the games a little more then we are. The other way to handle the redzone is to score from beyond it. Only Gates, Bush and to a lesser extent Hartline are the only WRs we have who can make those chunk TDs.

R Bush is another question. On one hand, we should not be surprised at this poor numbers. They have been decreasing since he came in the league. Carries per game, yards per carries, catches per game, yards per catch etc etc have all went down. It seems to me that R Bush might be a WR playing at RB.

IMO, we are slowly adding plays to our playbook. We know that Bush in practice started out as a RB and then moved to a WR in certain formations/plays. But we have been very vanilla in the first 3 games.

Last thing is I'd resign PR/KR P Livas. Gates and Bess are almost last in the NFL doing returns.

The biggest problem our offense has?

RT Colombo of course.

It would be one thing if he was a rookie and might improve, but this is the best he is ever going to be, it is all even more downhill. As time goes the teams we are going to play are going to come more and more at Henne from that side. I think that RT is the worse position on this team and we should do anything to correct it. I'd look to trade for a young RT and offer a future draft pick. Something like a 3rd rounder.

 

[BigCityCat]

I have to agree. That long pass was a low percentage play. A wasted play in that scenario. All we needed was a first down. It was a dumb play. Find a better time to be more aggressive.

 

[dolphone]

I think you also have to factor in the idea that higher-percentage plays could've also gotten us into the range of an easier field goal. We didn't necessarily have to get there with a downfield pass.

Really the argument comes down to this: you play conservatively when you should, and you play aggressively when you should.

This team has it backwards. It plays aggressively when it should play conservatively, and vice-versa.

Sure, but you have to consider the probability of gaining 15 yards versus the probability of gaining 30, both with the high percentage plays. I think the clock may not allow it, but it's a good exercise.

 

[LikeUntoGod]

I have to agree. That long pass was a low percentage play. A wasted play in that scenario. All we needed was a first down. It was a dumb play. Find a better time to be more aggressive.

It was a killer strike. The kind that Brady or Manning would throw. But we do not have Brady or Manning and our WR is a rookie. 6-8 weeks from now that might be the play, but not yet.

That last drive showed a couple of our many problems. The pass we needed was a 12 yard over the middle to the TE. But not only were we not sending a TE like Fasano out in pass patterns, we were using LT N Garner as a TE just for blocking. Not the "3rd" TE in a power running formation, but in normal formations, Garner took Fasano's spot I think 13 times.

Why? Our RT Colombo.

The thing is, Chad Henne was still under pressure and he has less WRs out in the pattern.

That is how bad our OL and Colombo is. Henne and the Dolphins are on their way to the most sacks since 1969.

 

[Shouright]

Sure, but you have to consider the probability of gaining 15 yards versus the probability of gaining 30, both with the high percentage plays. I think the clock may not allow it, but it's a good exercise.

The deal is, you have a QB with mediocre to relatively poor downfield accuracy, throwing to a rookie, versus using the great YAC guys we have (Marshall, Bess, Bush) to try to get the same yardage on higher-percentage plays.

Of course, part of the problem is that Sparano used two of the three timeouts by that time, in usual idiot fashion, so we were hamstrung into being a one-dimensional pass offense, which of course is easier to defend.

If you need 15 to 25 yards and you have three timeouts, you can line up in a run formation and keep the defense honest. You can even run a draw or a stretch play.