Miami Dolphins Should Consider Trading Down

[DKphin]

The Miami Dolphins spent costly picks in the 2016 NFL Draft to trade up and select WR Leonte Carroo. Dolphins Report thinks they should do the opposite this year.
There is no other way to say it: the Miami Dolphins have a lot of needs heading into their 2017 campaign. Most of these needs will be shown even more after free agency and key players are either acquired or leave for greener pastures. As of now, the Dolphins desperately need help at the LB, DE, TE, and OG position.
The good news for the Dolphins is that this draft is rich in DE, LB, and TE, and there are plenty of viable options at OG in Free Agency. The bad news is the Miami Dolphins made a costly error in last year´s draft, giving up a 6th round pick last year and a 3rd and 4th round pick in this year´s draft to select WR Leonte Carroo, who was receiving comparisons to Jarvis Landry this time last year. Whether it was because of the Dolphins obvious depth at the position, or because of a lack of growth on Carroo´s part as rookie, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights standout produced little in his rookie season. I am not saying he can´t get better in year two and produce, but giving up a valuable 3rd and 4th round pick in this upcoming draft could prove costly considering the team´s defensive needs.
There is a bright side for the Dolphins. They could acquire compensatory picks this year because of deals made earlier in the season. However, imagine if they had not moved up for Carroo and had extra 3rd and 4th round picks that they could turn into a TE or LB.
This is why I think it might be valuable for the Dolphins to consider trading back in Round 1 of this year´s draft. The Dolphins are currently slotted at 22nd overall, and will likely have their pick of a highly coveted, NFL ready DE or LB. They may decide to stay at 22 and pull the trigger on one of these players who can make in immediate impact on defense.
I would also not mind seeing the team stay put at 22 if an elite talent were to drop out of the Top 10 or 20, much like Laremy Tunsil did last year when he fell into the Dolphins lap after being considered the top overall prospect. The terrible beauty of the NFL Draft is its unpredictability.

http://www.scout.com/nfl/dolphins/story/1752017-miami-dolphins-should-consider-trading-down

 

[phinfan33]

I hope they can/do trade down. We could use more picks, and this is a good draft to have a few extra picks in imo.

 

[ckparrothead]

I would not trade down. I don't see how it would be worth it.

At #22 overall you're going to have a crack at good players from across a multitude of positions. But those players will start coming off the board one by one with every pick starting around that area. If you enter the draft with a need or two, which is usually the case, you may find yourself victim of a talent drop because you went down 7 spaces in exchange for what, a late 3rd round pick? Then you're stuck either dealing with the talent drop at the position you needed, or moving off that position altogether and taking an equivalent talent player at a position you didn't need (i.e. "best player available"), a guy who probably isn't going to play that much now because he's not at a position of need, and then you have to try and circle back at picks #54 or one of the two late-3rd round picks to try and grab a body at the position of need and of course it just ends up being a body.

And the other thing you do is basically preclude yourself from taking advantage of a superior talent unexpectedly tumbling to your pick. We trade down last year, we don't get Laremy Tunsil. Pure and simple.

This draft sets up more for a trade UP from pick #54 than a trade DOWN from pick #22.

 

[phinfan33]

I get what you're saying ck, but trading up from 54 like you say it's setting up makes me wanna beat Tannenbaum over his head with Lucille (Walking Dead reference). Trading away possibly current and future assets is going to bite us in our a$$ imo. Going into these drafts with less than a full contingent of picks is not how we're going to build a team. But again, this is jmo.

 

[Fin Thirteen]

CK is 100% correct on this.

 

[Travis34]

Definitely with ck.

 

[Snoop]

I think they'll move down in the 2nd.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I would not trade down. I don't see how it would be worth it.

At #22 overall you're going to have a crack at good players from across a multitude of positions. But those players will start coming off the board one by one with every pick starting around that area. If you enter the draft with a need or two, which is usually the case, you may find yourself victim of a talent drop because you went down 7 spaces in exchange for what, a late 3rd round pick? Then you're stuck either dealing with the talent drop at the position you needed, or moving off that position altogether and taking an equivalent talent player at a position you didn't need (i.e. "best player available"), a guy who probably isn't going to play that much now because he's not at a position of need, and then you have to try and circle back at picks #54 or one of the two late-3rd round picks to try and grab a body at the position of need and of course it just ends up being a body.

And the other thing you do is basically preclude yourself from taking advantage of a superior talent unexpectedly tumbling to your pick. We trade down last year, we don't get Laremy Tunsil. Pure and simple.

This draft sets up more for a trade UP from pick #54 than a trade DOWN from pick #22.

I agree with this. The Dolphins traded up at the wrong section of the draft last year. In those rounds it's basically one moderate percentage stab instead of another one. Might as well double or triple your opportunity as opposed to trying to force a specific player as desperately needed. You might get away with that once in a while but not enough to justify as a trend. Far better to identify a specific position, or several of them, as the depth of the draft and allow guys at those positions to fall to you. Or have a specific trait or physical characteristic in mind, like Seattle does with SPARQ ratings or arm length at cornerback. Create your own value.

I like picks within the top 40. Since this year's draft looks deeper than most you can probably extend that a few spots. I wouldn't go overboard and say it drags all the way to 50, or whatever. That's 25% more. Not logical. But 10% or nearby might make sense so if a trade up is available to 44 or 45 or higher I'd certainly entertain it. Preferably top 40 so we don't have to adjust at all.

We need great players. I haven't seen any evidence we're special enough in the front office to forfeit that opportunity at 22 and allow other teams to vault ahead of us.

Package Dion Jordan if we want to move down. That's the way they do it in the NBA draft, at certain stages. The contract aspects vary so wildly from first round to second round that you actually have to surrender players/cash to be allowed to slide down.

 

[ckparrothead]

Based on what I've seen we're going to have a shot at a lot of genuinely good players at pick #22 but by the time we roll around to #54 we'll get a shot at perhaps only 4 or 5 good player, many of whom play the same position. It is significantly limiting.

That's why I say moving up from #54 could be a good idea. It gives you the potential for a real 2-for-1. Trade up to #40 and you very literally might pick up the guy you were considering taking at #22 overall, instead of the guy you did take at #22 overall.

If you wait until #54, yes you'll get a crack at 4 or 5 good players available for you, but not necessarily at positions of need and it may not even fit well with what you did at #22.

 

[ckparrothead]

When I say Miami will get a crack at a lot of quality players at #22 overall this is what I mean. Just run a Fanspeak simulation with the CBS rankings (most accurate, though they have a few individual players here and there that they've got very wrong) and the user-voted needs. Here are some of the quality players commonly available at #22:

QB Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
RB Dalvin Cook, Florida State
RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma
WR Corey Davis, Western Michigan
WR Taywan Taylor, Western Kentucky
TE David Njoku, Miami
OT Cam Robinson, Alabama
OT Ryan Ramczyk, Wisconsin
OL Forrest Lamp, Western Kentucky
OL Pat Elflein, Ohio State
OG Dan Feeney, Indiana
OG Dorian Johnson, Pittsburgh
DL Malik McDowell, Michigan State
DT Chris Wormley, Michigan
DT Carlos Watkins, Clemson
DE Charles Harris, Missouri
DE Carl Lawson, Auburn
DE Jordan Willis, Kansas State
DE Demarcus Walker, Florida State
DE Taco Charlton, Michigan
DE Tim Williams, Alabama
OLB T.J. Watt, Wisconsin
OLB Ryan Anderson, Alabama
OLB Takkarist McKinley, UCLA
LB Zach Cunningham, Vanderbilt
LB Jarrad Davis, Florida
LB Haason Reddick, Temple
CB Quincy Wilson, Florida
CB Sidney Jones, Washington
CB Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State
CB Marlon Humphrey, Alabama
CB Gareon Conley, Ohio State
DB Jabrill Peppers, Michigan
DB Budda Baker, Washington
DB Desmond King, Iowa

But those guys start going pick by pick by pick, and when you get down to pick #54 in the simulations...very commonly only 4 to 7 of them are left, with at least half of those being edge players. If you've already taken an edge player at pick #22 then you're screwed that way. Also consider that some of the guys on that list play positions that are among the last Miami would target. What if those guys are the ones left at #54?

What if you've taken yourself a pass rusher at pick #22 and the quality players left at pick #54 are Patrick Mahomes, Joe Mixon, Carl Lawson, Jordan Willis, Ryan Anderson, and Taywan Taylor? That helps us not at all. We're stuck bumping down a level in talent.

This is why you trade up from #54, to control who you get.

 

[hoops]

our comp 3 might and I stress might get us from 54 to 45

I doubt it would get you any further forward

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

A lot depends on how the draft actually unfolds. If you've got five players you want and can trade down five spots then that makes sense to do it and get more draft picks.

Generally, though, I agree with CK. If Miami can get two good starters out of this draft I'd be happy. It's hard to find more than that in most drafts. I think most of us consider last years' draft a big success and there were two starters in Tunsil and Howard. A couple of other guys made contributions, but hard to see anyone else emerging as a starter...Carroo maybe if Stills isn't kept.

Trading up from #54, if it nets one more good player, makes a ton of sense.

 

[Snoop]

When I say Miami will get a crack at a lot of quality players at #22 overall this is what I mean. Just run a Fanspeak simulation with the CBS rankings (most accurate, though they have a few individual players here and there that they've got very wrong) and the user-voted needs. Here are some of the quality players commonly available at #22:

QB Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
RB Dalvin Cook, Florida State
RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma
WR Corey Davis, Western Michigan
WR Taywan Taylor, Western Kentucky
TE David Njoku, Miami
OT Cam Robinson, Alabama
OT Ryan Ramczyk, Wisconsin
OL Forrest Lamp, Western Kentucky
OL Pat Elflein, Ohio State
OG Dan Feeney, Indiana
OG Dorian Johnson, Pittsburgh
DL Malik McDowell, Michigan State
DT Chris Wormley, Michigan
DT Carlos Watkins, Clemson
DE Charles Harris, Missouri
DE Carl Lawson, Auburn
DE Jordan Willis, Kansas State
DE Demarcus Walker, Florida State
DE Taco Charlton, Michigan
DE Tim Williams, Alabama
OLB T.J. Watt, Wisconsin
OLB Ryan Anderson, Alabama
OLB Takkarist McKinley, UCLA
LB Zach Cunningham, Vanderbilt
LB Jarrad Davis, Florida
LB Haason Reddick, Temple
CB Quincy Wilson, Florida
CB Sidney Jones, Washington
CB Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State
CB Marlon Humphrey, Alabama
CB Gareon Conley, Ohio State
DB Jabrill Peppers, Michigan
DB Budda Baker, Washington
DB Desmond King, Iowa

But those guys start going pick by pick by pick, and when you get down to pick #54 in the simulations...very commonly only 4 to 7 of them are left, with at least half of those being edge players. If you've already taken an edge player at pick #22 then you're screwed that way. Also consider that some of the guys on that list play positions that are among the last Miami would target. What if those guys are the ones left at #54?

What if you've taken yourself a pass rusher at pick #22 and the quality players left at pick #54 are Patrick Mahomes, Joe Mixon, Carl Lawson, Jordan Willis, Ryan Anderson, and Taywan Taylor? That helps us not at all. We're stuck bumping down a level in talent.

This is why you trade up from #54, to control who you get.

If we do this and say we get up to the early 40s that comp 3 is gone so we wouldn't be back on the clock until pick #148, that's a long wait, over 100 picks that's like 3 whole rounds lol....I know it's very early but I think there's a good chance we move down at least once in the first couple rounds, not just so Mike T can get back a pick or two, but also to give him some flexibility later if he wants to move up like he did in the 2nd for Howard and 3rd for Carroo

 

[MP-Omnis]

1 blue chip player is worth more than 3 extra risks. Think about the linebackers, the secondary, the o-line, the tight ends... so many groups on this team could be totally turned around with the addition of one really good, solid player. To build a team, you LOCK away one solid pick and then go after the risks and projects.

 

[dolphintodd]

IDK, with that list of players available at 22, wouldn't it make more sense to trade down? knowing you will get a good player 5-10 spots back. I don't accept that those are the only impactful players. We have so many needs I just can't see moving up unless w are super active in FA.