Miami Favored by 4 Points vs KC

[DolfanISS]

So it means nothing that this offense with the same QB for the past 3 years has failed to be at the league average in scoring because we have a different coordinator now? I think it's been pretty obvious this team has had a good, but not elite defense and a below average offense for 2 straight years and possibly going on 3. Forgive me if I'm skeptical but we really haven't done anything on offense thus far to make me feel like that will change (the defense and ST was very helpful to us reaching 33 vs NE). Hopefully this offense proves me wrong but what have we seen that would lead anyone to believe that so far?

 

[datruth55]

So it means nothing that this offense with the same QB for the past 3 years has failed to be at the league average in scoring because we have a different coordinator now? I think it's been pretty obvious this team has had a good, but not elite defense and a below average offense for 2 straight years and possibly going on 3. Forgive me if I'm skeptical but we really haven't done anything on offense thus far to make me feel like that will change (the defense and ST was very helpful to us reaching 33 vs NE). Hopefully this offense proves me wrong but what have we seen that would lead anyone to believe that so far?

I suppose it means nothing that we scored 33 points while not playing our best...with the same QB. Forgive me if I'm optimistic from what I've seen from our offense and play design...while the execution is lacking so far...the plays have been there to be had. When we do finally execute on both ends, QB and receiver, it will be an explosion of points.

 

[psfign]

So it means nothing that this offense with the same QB for the past 3 years has failed to be at the league average in scoring because we have a different coordinator now? I think it's been pretty obvious this team has had a good, but not elite defense and a below average offense for 2 straight years and possibly going on 3. Forgive me if I'm skeptical but we really haven't done anything on offense thus far to make me feel like that will change (the defense and ST was very helpful to us reaching 33 vs NE). Hopefully this offense proves me wrong but what have we seen that would lead anyone to believe that so far?

Fine to be skeptical, but using statistics that aren't relevant is the issue for me. We may not get to the league average, but it's hard to say based on two games one way or the other. And you really can't go beyond that due to new OC and a completely revamped OL. Plus we'll have Pouncy back in a couple weeks it seems and then Moreno (that loss hurts the most, I think) come back, it could be even better. So I think you're getting this kind of feedback for making such an assumption with not enough to back it up. I will admit, I was devastated by the blowout and thought 'same ol, same ol', but it really isnt.

 

[AFCMiamiEast]

I wouldn't touch this line at -4.5. I'd be all for it at -3 (different story if it was at Arrowhead), but both Kansas City and Miami have been too inconsistent early on in weeks 1&2 for me to think of this game than anything other than a crapshoot.

Yes, Miami should win, but I wouldn't trust them to cover the spread this time. I'm not saying they won't outscore them by a TD or more, but I don't like the odds. Both teams are hurting, and on paper, our defensive front should eat that ravaged Kansas offensive line up throughout the game (just like Cam Wake should have made his match up against Seantrel Henderson in Buffalo last week a laughable one for viewers). Oh, and anyone on this Miami team going up against our man Sean Smith one on one should be a win in our favor. This should be a close game between two middle of the road teams, definitely one of the forgotten match ups this week. Miami will get the W straight up.

Take the Chiefs! I see a typical Dolphins game where we lose like 20-17 and finheaven blames the defense even though we once again fail to score the league average. It's a broken record, if the D was healthier our 17 points may stand a chance.


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How funny that you post that in regards to the past 2 weeks. Have you been reading the boards at all? Ryan Tannehill is the next Chad Henne, and shoulders the blame himself for all of this team's defensive, and special teams woes.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Meh, after the first two weeks, I don't put any stock into who's favored or not.

We were underdogs against the Pats and we beat 'em.

We were slight favorite against the Bills and lost.

Actually Buffalo was favored at kickoff. Closing line was Bills -1.5. There are late moves courtesy of a major betting outfit. They took Buffalo last week. It doesn't take as much to move a game from 1 on on side to 1.5 the other way compared to let's say 3 to 5.5, so the number moved quickly before settling at -1.5.

This Chiefs game was -4.5 until yesterday when the 4.5 started to disappear. I grabbed +4.5 -108 when the big joints started to drop to 4. Today all the 4.5s are gone. It still could go the other way in the late going. But the next key number is 6. I didn't want to miss 4.5 and get stuck with 4 since there's a considerable difference in those two numbers compared to 5 and 5.5. Not many games fall 5.

Among equal bracket teams, there's an advantage playing the home team at -1 or better, and taking the road team at +4 or better. That's the basis for the wager, along with an 0-2 team in a favorable spot as road underdog. As always I'm not trying to handicap Miami vs. Kansas City as opposed to applying blanket formulas with proven historical percentages and that can apply to any team. Two Crowd teams, you're giving me +4.5, I'll take my chances. Regardless of result, move on to the next example. No second guessing or overreaction that way.

 

[datruth55]

Actually Buffalo was favored at kickoff. Closing line was Bills -1.5. There are late moves courtesy of a major betting outfit. They took Buffalo last week. It doesn't take as much to move a game from 1 on on side to 1.5 the other way compared to let's say 3 to 5.5, so the number moved quickly before settling at -1.5.

This Chiefs game was -4.5 until yesterday when the 4.5 started to disappear. I grabbed +4.5 -108 when the big joints started to drop to 4. Today all the 4.5s are gone. It still could go the other way in the late going. But the next key number is 6. I didn't want to miss 4.5 and get stuck with 4 since there's a considerable difference in those two numbers compared to 5 and 5.5. Not many games fall 5.

Among equal bracket teams, there's an advantage playing the home team at -1 or better, and taking the road team at +4 or better. That's the basis for the wager, along with an 0-2 team in a favorable spot as road underdog. As always I'm not trying to handicap Miami vs. Kansas City as opposed to applying blanket formulas with proven historical percentages and that can apply to any team. Two Crowd teams, you're giving me +4.5, I'll take my chances. Regardless of result, move on to the next example. No second guessing or overreaction that way.

Sounds like you put your money on the Chiefs.

 

[AFCMiamiEast]

Among equal bracket teams, there's an advantage playing the home team at -1 or better

That's why I jumped all over that -1 for Dallas this week at St. Louis, not to mention the parity in talent between the two teams. By far the easiest spread of the week. Indy @ Jags was another no brainer.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

That system took a drubbing tonight. I had Tampa Bay +6.5. Same deal...two supposedly mid pack teams with the home team favored by 4 or more, and the road team entering at 0-2.

This happens frequently. Road team is injured and simply not capable at this point in the season. Gerald McCoy was out tonight, among others. It could happen to Kansas City also. But over the years I've learned not to go overboard and throw teams into the higher category or lower category without considerably more evidence. I've won lots of bets that I expected to lose on stumbling teams.

Painless loss. I was thrilled for Devin Hester. I was worried he'd get stuck on 19. Made zero sense for Chicago to give up on him as receiver. I remember posting two years ago that Hester had more left at receiver than returner. He's quite clever out there and now has the perfect quarterback for his style, dropping it barely over the defensive back. This could extend Hester's career 2 seasons, perhaps 3. The indoor turf also provides just enough bounce to help his return game.

 

[zach attach]

I definately feel that this is a winnable game. I'm curious to the see if they bounce back from last week. There was Tannehill saying how he needs to be better, Lazor saying the lack of scoring is his fault, and Philbin saying they just played bad. We have heard all of te apologizing since the loss, I'm ready to see the fixes, and man do I hope there are fixes.

 

[Gonzo]

That system took a drubbing tonight. I had Tampa Bay +6.5. Same deal...two supposedly mid pack teams with the home team favored by 4 or more, and the road team entering at 0-2.

This happens frequently. Road team is injured and simply not capable at this point in the season. Gerald McCoy was out tonight, among others. It could happen to Kansas City also. But over the years I've learned not to go overboard and throw teams into the higher category or lower category without considerably more evidence. I've won lots of bets that I expected to lose on stumbling teams.

Painless loss. I was thrilled for Devin Hester. I was worried he'd get stuck on 19. Made zero sense for Chicago to give up on him as receiver. I remember posting two years ago that Hester had more left at receiver than returner. He's quite clever out there and now has the perfect quarterback for his style, dropping it barely over the defensive back. This could extend Hester's career 2 seasons, perhaps 3. The indoor turf also provides just enough bounce to help his return game.

I just missed getting Atlanta at -6.5 (literally ran to the desk from my room, time difference ****ed me up, but luckily got KSU at +9 last night, though their kicker tried his best to destroy that). Dome team with a high-powered offense at home on Thursday night? I'm still mad about it.

 

[Hayden Fox]

My take:
1. The Chiefs are the more desperate team.
2. The Chiefs are MUCH better coached.
3. They get a big boost from Charles returning.
4. KC has steadier QB play.
KC wins it late on a FG and makes me writhe on the floor in anger.

I DO think the Fins pull things together in London and go 2-2 into the bye which is not terrible, but I think they drop the GB and Chicago games, so….

 

[Fins1971]

That system took a drubbing tonight. I had Tampa Bay +6.5. Same deal...two supposedly mid pack teams with the home team favored by 4 or more, and the road team entering at 0-2

Was driving home and they were saying Atlanta was giving up 450 yards a game. I figured this was one of those games where the stats come back to a more reasonable average. I laid 25 on Atlanta about 5 minutes before kick off. By the time I got home and turned the tv on it was 28-0. Atlanta ended up only giving up 217 yards. So they brought there yards allowed back to a more reasonable number and I won my bet.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Offshore outfits are now mostly -3.5 while Las Vegas is holding steady at -4.

If it remains at -3.5 or goes lower I would say that's probably good news toward the Dolphins covering. Over the years when I grab an early number that fits my system, and then the betting line moves in my direction and outside the parameter of the system, the win percentage is actually lower than normal, not higher.

 

[Fins1971]

Offshore outfits are now mostly -3.5 while Las Vegas is holding steady at -4.

If it remains at -3.5 or goes lower I would say that's probably good news toward the Dolphins covering. Over the years when I grab an early number that fits my system, and then the betting line moves in my direction and outside the parameter of the system, the win percentage is actually lower than normal, not higher.

Took your advice and was able to get Chiefs +5 at the last minute before game. Was hoping the Fins would pull it out and win by a FG.
No such luck but thanks for your crowd vs crowd theory. I'll keep it in mind in the future.

Was going to pull the trigger on a money line bet on Steelers last night but backed off at the last minute. DuH!

 

[Fins1971]

Looks like the Dolphins are an early 4 1/2 point favorite against the Raiders.

I have no idea why after our last two games.