Miami's emphasis on metrics and possible front office division of labo

[Austin Tatious]

We've had a number of threads where several astute posters have noted Miami's increased use of analytics in the player evaluation process. These comments have been dispersed in numerous threads throughout the main forum and the draft forum. I noted in a thread somewhere that there may be synergy in the building on this front.

My observation was based on the facts that (1) Hickey was said to have hit his interview with Ross "out of the park." (2) In his introductory presser, Hickey kept coming back to innovation and how he liked that the Dolphins were receptive to these ideas such that it felt like a "fit" for him. (3) Tannenbaum was hired in August 2014 as a consultant to work on analytics, innovation, and injuries.

Other posters such as Awsi and J-Off have pointed out that the Seattle folks have been ahead of the curve in this regard. The Seattle websites have been following along with the moves of the organization and analyzing their player acquisitions accordingly based on various metrics.

I wanted to point out an interesting link here. His name is Eric Stokes, Miami's assistant General Manager. One of Dennis Hickey's first moves was bringing in Stokes. I recall how glowing Hickey was about Stokes at the time. Stokes was in Tampa Bay with Hickey at the time that Hickey came over. However, where did Stokes come from before that?

You guessed it. Seattle.

Stokes worked in the Seahawks front office from 2002 to 2011, and served as director of college scouting for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2012 to 2013.[SUP][2][/SUP]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Stokes_(American_football)

Now, I don't know if Carroll installed the analytics into the Seattle mindset or inherited it, but certainly Stokes was exposed to it. If I had to guess, based on Seattle being in the software zone with computer fanatics everywhere, they may have had a bias toward it already, and Stokes was immersed in it for years. Interestingly, he went to Tampa Bay and when Hickey came to Miami, Hickey raved about Stokes and decided he needed him with the Dolphins. It's making sense.

I will say, at one point, I looked at Tannenbaum, Hickey, Stokes, Grier, and even Aponte, and thought, jeez, those are a lot of bodies. But it is starting to come into focus for me. We've got the tape grinders and we've got the analytics people. They don't have to be exclusive but you may have different perspectives.

The cloud is lifting, and the plan and structure is making more sense. Time will certainly tell. But the last two off seasons seem to be an upgrade in business.

 

[Travis34]

Seems like everyone has a part and contributes.

not this nonsense of dictator Tannenbaum.

 

[Digital]

I definitely believe in metrics. At the end of the day I'm using my eye to evaluate technique, reading the game, vision, work ethic and a thousand other things.

But at the end of the day there is a heavy physical component of the game. Metrics can help us view these things more accurately.

However, garbage in, garbage out.

So, when looking at a 40 time it's significant to note that people's play speed I different in pads. It's different with the ball in their hands. It's different in the 4th quarter and it's different in the snow. So, it's important to know what exactly you are looking at and what the context is.

Forty times are skewed towards people who understand and practice sprinters starts. Their 10 yard split is very related to that. It doesn't really show you how quickly a WR or RB running at 75% speed can explode out of a cut. Neither does the reach and bend oriented 3-cone drill. So, the film's should be he real information.

There are many measures of power ... how many times you can bench press 225 is only one of them. Squats, broad jump, technique, hand position, hand jolt, can all make a decently strong guy a powerful one, or rob a workout warrior of functional power a a lineman.

But, when all the metrics point one way or another. ... it would be foolish to ignore them IMHO.

 

[nick1]

You look at the draft and idk how you can say Tannenbaum ran things. Hickey traded down and went BPA which Hickey has been preaching. Tannenbaum probably would have traded up and/or reached for a DB

 

[tcdrover]

I've posted it before. It certainly appears like Hickey really is running the draft.

This draft was very similar to last year's.

The organizational structure looks very good, I have to agree.

The thing is, when they have a press conference and Ross is the center piece,

and then he opens his mouth.... :unsure: :err: :rotfl1: ossum4286: :finnasty:

 

[Hc90]

We've had a number of threads where several astute posters have noted Miami's increased use of analytics in the player evaluation process. These comments have been dispersed in numerous threads throughout the main forum and the draft forum. I noted in a thread somewhere that there may be synergy in the building on this front.

My observation was based on the facts that (1) Hickey was said to have hit his interview with Ross "out of the park." (2) In his introductory presser, Hickey kept coming back to innovation and how he liked that the Dolphins were receptive to these ideas such that it felt like a "fit" for him. (3) Tannenbaum was hired in August 2014 as a consultant to work on analytics, innovation, and injuries.

Other posters such as Awsi and J-Off have pointed out that the Seattle folks have been ahead of the curve in this regard. The Seattle websites have been following along with the moves of the organization and analyzing their player acquisitions accordingly based on various metrics.

I wanted to point out an interesting link here. His name is Eric Stokes, Miami's assistant General Manager. One of Dennis Hickey's first moves was bringing in Stokes. I recall how glowing Hickey was about Stokes at the time. Stokes was in Tampa Bay with Hickey at the time that Hickey came over. However, where did Stokes come from before that?

You guessed it. Seattle.



http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Stokes_(American_football)

Now, I don't know if Carroll installed the analytics into the Seattle mindset or inherited it, but certainly Stokes was exposed to it. If I had to guess, based on Seattle being in the software zone with computer fanatics everywhere, they may have had a bias toward it already, and Stokes was immersed in it for years. Interestingly, he went to Tampa Bay and when Hickey came to Miami, Hickey raved about Stokes and decided he needed him with the Dolphins. It's making sense.

I will say, at one point, I looked at Tannenbaum, Hickey, Stokes, Grier, and even Aponte, and thought, jeez, those are a lot of bodies. But it is starting to come into focus for me. We've got the tape grinders and we've got the analytics people. They don't have to be exclusive but you may have different perspectives.

The cloud is lifting, and the plan and structure is making more sense. Time will certainly tell. But the last two off seasons seem to be an upgrade in business.

All of this ......But the ability to build this team with a positive outlook comes down to one guy we hit on .

Ryan Tannehill baby .

Because without a qb .... Non of this would matter

 

[Brazzi]

Stokes owns the stage in pressers, he is really impressive.

 

[Roman529]

You look at how it has helped teams like the Oakland A's in Moneyball, and how teams play into a defensive shift, something nobody did twenty years ago. If it works in baseball I know it can work in football.

 

[spiketex]

Austin - I understand that Joe Philbin is also supportive of the analytics in identifying and selecting talent. You should also be aware that the team has invested heavily in personnel and highly sophisticated equipment to analyze the physical condition of every player. Statistics generated from the performance metrics are seen as the path to optimizing the physical condition eg recovery times from injury, etc.
What you see as the use of the analytics in the draft process is only part of the picture. The analytics of the players' performance at training and in games. The analytics of their physical condition at all times (eg how many hours sleep), analysis of their diet, etc.
Mr Ross sent Mike Tannenbaum overseas as a consultant to better understand what was being done in other sports and he has learned a lot and we're only just beginning to apply it.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Every day recently I learn something new by reading those Seattle websites, including older links. Today's nugget was that Seattle hasn't drafted a cornerback with less than 77.5 inch wingspan in the Carroll/Schneider era. That may actually be their cutoff point, even though there's a natural correlation to 32 inch arms, and that 32 inch arms aspect has been the reference point and assumed criteria on Seahawky websites for years.

That's the term they use, BTW, that this guy is a Seahawky type cornerback, and that guy isn't.

I applaud those sites for identifying the trends and using them to isolate specific players Seattle is interested in. The connect rate is terrific. One top guy on a Seattle website correctly predicted 4 Seattle picks. How often does that happen via subjective methods alone?

Schneider apparently has mentioned specific things they prioritize based on position, whether it's a 3-cone or 10 yard split or whatever. He dropped the tidbits over the years, mostly to local outlets. The Seattle guys were sharp enough to compile it instead of letting it drift in the wind. And now Seahawk fans, or at least a specialized chunk of them, are reaping the benefit. I've read many comments that the Seahawk draft interest has peaked sharply and is more enjoyable since those fans can anticipate who Seattle is interested in, and deep in the draft not merely the first round or so.

This is inevitable, IMO. For years I've been disgusted at NFL Network. For a specialized focus the caliber is pathetic, and that's being far too kind. They want the Bar Stool type blather with excuse that it's being delivered by former players, so called experts. Meanwhile it's standard fare and this era deserves much more. It's about time that some DNA clarity entered the sport.

If you want an example, golf academics has exploded recently, with dozens of new stats that are available on PGA.com and elsewhere. We now have Strokes Gained Putting and Strokes Gained Tee to Green and countless more examples. Previously the categories were very basic. It's absurd that NFL football lags golf these days. The golf commentators are actually much more comfortable mentioning and embracing the new stats than the NFL analysts are.

Same with metrics. There were brief and hesitant mentions on ESPN and NFL Network. I watched both versions all three days. Kiper dipped there a little bit and so did Mayock. Not specifically, but something like, "flunked the combine" or "did great in the short shuttle." The audience deserved so much more. I kept thinking that those Seahawky viewers knew 10x what Kiper and Mayock did, even if it was restricted to a small sample of players. When SPARQ dynamos like Davis Tull and Kristan Sokoli came off the board they should have been set aside as freaks, like test cases of emerging theory, but they were not. No mention.

For betting purposes I've used primitive versions of categorization for 30 years. I'm convinced primitive and simplistic is best for sports betting because the margins are so low. No matter now much time I invest I'm not going to hit 80%. In spring 1984 I discovered my Cream/Crowd and later Crap categories for NFL teams, and that taking +4 points among teams in equal categories triggered the advantage. That holds true to this day. That same spring I drove back from Las Vegas to Los Angeles briefly, and watched the NFL Draft. I'll never forget that day. The Dolphins took Jackie Shipp and then Jay Brophy. First and second round. Unbelievable. Same position but otherwise nothing matched. I was an Oklahoma fan in that wishbone era, along with allegiance to the Canes and USC. Shipp was an awesome looking athlete who couldn't find the ball. Brophy was a fan favorite with great instincts but I didn't know any Canes fan, no matter how biased, who thought he projected to the NFL.

When I drove back to Las Vegas a few days later I remember thinking that at least I have a logical plan of attack. The Dolphins have no plan. No coordinated logical belief system can spit out Jackie Shipp and Jay Brophy one round apart on the same day. They got lucky with Marino a year earlier but mostly it's spinning wheels and throwing darts. And that's held true for three more decades.

Naturally there will be skeptics. I've dealt with that on golf forums regarding the 5-6 ideal height for female golfers. The subjective version prefers to believe that taller is better....more powerful. I walked alongside Jessica Korda's parents at an event in Naples in November 2013. They were chatting with famous instructor David Leadbetter, who was commenting on how tall young Nellie Korda had grown. "Yes, we feed them well," Mrs. Korda said. It was all I could manage to shut up. Nellie Korda is closing in on 6 feet, just like her older sister Jessica. That basically means they have no chance to be long term consistent players. A hot streak and big win here and there, but otherwise the natural weaknesses will attach, same with Lexi Thompson and Michelle Wie.

Meanwhile, the South Korean players have ideal golf metrics because that country has taller than average females for an Asian population. The average South Korean female is 5-4. Top athletes are generally a few inches taller than the population at large. Therefore South Korea has a massive section to draw from, of 5-5 to 5-7 females taking up golf. It's a SPARQ golf nation, if you will. Not complicated. Lydia Ko the current world number 1 is South Korean born even though her parents relocated to New Zealand. Ko is listed at 5-5 to 5-6, depending on what source you trust. Number 2 Inbee Park is 5-6. World number 3 Stacy Lewis is 5-5. Prior to Lewis winning Player of the Year at 5-5 recently, every player who won that award dating to the late '90s had a listed height of 5-6. Annika Sorenstam, Lorena Ochoa, Karrie Webb, and so forth. I don't mind betting the matchups that way and collecting more often than not on the 5-6 dynamos while everybody else prefers to hunt and peck using one subjective stab after another.

Whatever the Dolphins are doing, it appears to be an altered course. More evidence required. I hope the local reporters inquire.

 

[oasis]

For those interested in an interesting snippet of history of analytics with respect to the NFL, check out the Cowboys and the Indian, an ESPN 30 for 30 short.

Link: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12037311

ps. don't mean to derail the thread, just saw this recently and thought it was interesting and historically related :)

 

[Bob512]

OP....great read and very interesting. Thanks for posting....

 

[ReppinThe941]

This thread is classic....

Hickey also said in his opening presser that they data is fun, but the tape is the tell all.

They didn't draft these guys based off of what some nerds excel spread sheet read, they watch the tape and draft football players.

The reason we have some sort of focus (Even Though an Educated Fan Could Poke holes in almost every Move made this offseason) is because of Tannehill (Previously Stated). And that Ireland's not here to piss picks away.

Hickey doesn't reach? His first pick as GM was a reach.

And, our front office power structure is moronic...

But, don't let me tread on the annual post draft FH high....

 

[LDaniel7]

I definitely believe in metrics. At the end of the day I'm using my eye to evaluate technique, reading the game, vision, work ethic and a thousand other things.

But at the end of the day there is a heavy physical component of the game. Metrics can help us view these things more accurately.

However, garbage in, garbage out.

So, when looking at a 40 time it's significant to note that people's play speed I different in pads. It's different with the ball in their hands. It's different in the 4th quarter and it's different in the snow. So, it's important to know what exactly you are looking at and what the context is.

Forty times are skewed towards people who understand and practice sprinters starts. Their 10 yard split is very related to that. It doesn't really show you how quickly a WR or RB running at 75% speed can explode out of a cut. Neither does the reach and bend oriented 3-cone drill. So, the film's should be he real information.

There are many measures of power ... how many times you can bench press 225 is only one of them. Squats, broad jump, technique, hand position, hand jolt, can all make a decently strong guy a powerful one, or rob a workout warrior of functional power a a lineman.

But, when all the metrics point one way or another. ... it would be foolish to ignore them IMHO.

A very balanced approach to metrics -- and right, I would say.

For all of Seattle's high metrics players, by rights they should not have gone to the SB last year. They won the championship game by complete and utter fluke, with their QB single-handedly giving the game away only to be rescued by quirks of fate -- zero to do w. metrics, and lots to do w. coach/player stupidity on the other team. And then, this same "high metrics" QB simply gave the SB away.

For all of Seattle's high metrics, etc. (that are continually lifted up as the standard), take away a single player -- Lynch (who is in his own class) -- and Seattle is a slightly above-average team with a QB who suddenly is very average.

I love what Seattle is doing this off-season and draft, though. No question that they have a plan.

LD

 

[dlockz]

Good post but the money ball concept is quite overrated at least in the Oakland case. I think over the years it had its merits but gives way too much credence to so called advanced metrics and forget that 3 stud starters were much more important than the first baseman numbers versus left and right.