Our most recent game is a victory. That makes me less confident that we'll play inspired football. For all the talk about consolidating as a unit to make some type of statement, nothing naturally motivates a team like memory of a recent failure, and now playing on the road.
We need to hold the rookie quarterback to field goals. That's what it boils down to.
I was more confident a few days ago. This game really doesn't fit my most reliable systems, although the spread of -2 to -2.5 is a bit low. In my examination of similar games (road class, home class) at this point of the season over the past 20+ years, the road team wins by an average of 3.3 points.