You are probably right!
Most positive season prediction article I’ve seen
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mwestberry
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I'm not looking for an argument.
The team has to play better against top competition. Whether it's primetime, in cold weather, or any given Sunday.
The rub with primetime is that everyone is watching, and that is the time to shine.
This is the week to get juiced up, pumped up, and ready to put on a show.
If the team not only doesn't shine but continually lays an egg during primetime, then there's a disconnect somewhere.
Can playing top competition be a deterrent? Can injuries play a part?
Sure, but 2-9 feels like a bad trend at this point.
It feels like the team folds a bit under the spotlight. It's like a string gets pulled, and it all unravels.
Here's to turning it around by winning at least 3 of the 5 spotlight games this season.
Im not trying to argue, just pointing out that a lot of these media narratives… “primetime”… “.500 teams”… “the 3rd Tuesday of every month that ends in a “Y” and after 4:36pm”…. lol… It’s nothing but a talking point for ratings.I'm not looking for an argument.
The team has to play better against top competition. Whether it's primetime, in cold weather, or any given Sunday.
The rub with primetime is that everyone is watching, and that is the time to shine.
This is the week to get juiced up, pumped up, and ready to put on a show.
If the team not only doesn't shine but continually lays an egg during primetime, then there's a disconnect somewhere.
Can playing top competition be a deterrent? Can injuries play a part?
Sure, but 2-9 feels like a bad trend at this point.
It feels like the team folds a bit under the spotlight. It's like a string gets pulled, and it all unravels.
Here's to turning it around by winning at least 3 of the 5 spotlight games this season.
Do the Dolphins need to play better? Sure, but can’t that be said about every team that hasn’t won a SB recently? We WANT them to play better because they are our team. There’s nothing wrong with that, but we should use a little context and reality.
A lot of the primetime games over the last 3 seasons were against the actual SB winner for that year or against SB favorites for that year. Not to mention the other factors involved. I mean, the Bills haven’t won a road playoff game in forever. Are they soft and do they suck? Why don’t we hear that as a narrative? Mahomes has looked like absolute dog crap in 2 of his 5 SB appearances. Does he suck? Neither are true… the Bills are very good and Mahomes may go down as the GOAT.
There are actual contextual reasons why the Bills haven’t won a road playoff game and why Mahomes looked like crap in those 2 SB’s that don’t involve either the Bills or Mahomes sucking. It takes a “little” bit of objectivity, reasonableness, and objectivity to see what those reasons are and it doesn’t seem like most want to take the time to see that. They’d rather spew the new sports media jargon or narratives and pretend that they’re smart.
A lot of teams are built on “ifs” this time of year.
Yes, all teams have "ifs". The difference with the '25 Fins is that almost all of the position groups are "ifs" at this point. Read all the posts, it reads like a beginner's guide to programming...if this, then that!
All players have been and may once again get hurt. I agree that Tua’s past injuries (mainly due to his own behavior) makes him a bigger “if” than most, but the rest of the ifs can be asled about nearly all teams. Lamar, for example, had 2 straight seasons where he missed 4-5 games in each not long ago and a couple of other seasons where he missed a few games due to injuries. What if he goes down? JA has been a rock, but he’s human and with the way he plays an injury is bound to happen some point. Maybe he’ll get lucky, but if he goes down? Mahomes has been banged up frequently over the past couple of seasons… what if he misses 5-6 games? I could go on and on.
I think the bottom line is, if the Dolphins can stay relatively healthy, something that seems they’ve been unlucky about, they should be pretty good. But that can be said about every team. “If” any top team has their QB, or multiple skill players get hurt, they will fall way off, too.
No doubt. It's a QB driven league with the rules set up to ensure that. You lose your number one, you're in trouble. I don't know off the top of my head who all the back-up QBs in the league are, but I know that if Tua goes down yet again, the Fins are done. Wilson and/or Ewers are not taking the Fins to The Promised Land.
CaptDolphins
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Springveldt
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Quick question, I'm assuming you believe Tua is going to be injured for more than half the season then? This team won 8 games last year with Tua missing 6 games, no pass rush off the edges outside of a rookie, probably the worst guard play in the league, maybe the worst safety play in the league as well. If they weren't the worst, they must have been pretty damn close.
In what area have they collapsed so much that they only win 6 games next season?
If (big if I know) the OL can stay relatively healthy then they should be able to run the ball better this season, that alone will mean a top 5 offense. The defense would have to be last in the league to only win 6 games then.
I get people being pessimistic, hating everything about the team etc but I just honestly can't see a 6 game season unless the team is hit by massive injuries yet again. There is too much offensive talent alone to only win that many games if guys are healthy.
Springveldt
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Hard to disagree with this.
That's the frustrating part about this "build". There is talent there, quite a lot actually but you are just waiting on them missing a bunch of games.
mwestberry
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I'm not one of those you describe.Im not trying to argue, just pointing out that a lot of these media narratives… “primetime”… “.500 teams”… “the 3rd Tuesday of every month that ends in a “Y” and after 4:36pm”…. lol… It’s nothing but a talking point for ratings.
Do the Dolphins need to play better? Sure, but can’t that be said about every team that hasn’t won a SB recently? We WANT them to play better because they are our team. There’s nothing wrong with that, but we should use a little context and reality.
A lot of the primetime games over the last 3 seasons were against the actual SB winner for that year or against SB favorites for that year. Not to mention the other factors involved. I mean, the Bills haven’t won a road playoff game in forever. Are they soft and do they suck? Why don’t we hear that as a narrative? Mahomes has looked like absolute dog crap in 2 of his 5 SB appearances. Does he suck? Neither are true… the Bills are very good and Mahomes may go down as the GOAT.
There are actual contextual reasons why the Bills haven’t won a road playoff game and why Mahomes looked like crap in those 2 SB’s that don’t involve either the Bills or Mahomes sucking. It takes a “little” bit of objectivity, reasonableness, and objectivity to see what those reasons are and it doesn’t seem like most want to take the time to see that. They’d rather spew the new sports media jargon or narratives and pretend that they’re smart.
Comparing similar traits from other teams ... I get the point, but the Dolphins have been consistently questionable in weather cooler than 50 degrees for more than 20 YEARS.
Yes, other teams lose big games. It's a bummer, a downer ...
But if the team seems to trend in a certain direction under similar conditions, it becomes more noticeable ... less tolerable.
Losing a primetime game against the Super Bowl winners might be expected, but is losing 9 of 11 an acceptable ratio for those circumstances?
With that in mind, the team is already 1-4, in theory.
Sure, the other teams have similar issues, but the teams you mentioned don't have a history of underperforming when the atmosphere isn't perfect.
For me, I don't see the team moving forward from year to year. I see new faces, new "wrinkles," and at the end of the day, a mediocre record.
It's not because the players suck.
Springveldt
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So, I've just had a look at the prime time games since McDaniel took over.I'm not looking for an argument.
The team has to play better against top competition. Whether it's primetime, in cold weather, or any given Sunday.
The rub with primetime is that everyone is watching, and that is the time to shine.
This is the week to get juiced up, pumped up, and ready to put on a show.
If the team not only doesn't shine but continually lays an egg during primetime, then there's a disconnect somewhere.
Can playing top competition be a deterrent? Can injuries play a part?
Sure, but 2-9 feels like a bad trend at this point.
It feels like the team folds a bit under the spotlight. It's like a string gets pulled, and it all unravels.
Here's to turning it around by winning at least 3 of the 5 spotlight games this season.
2022
| Opponent | Score |
| @ Bengals | L 27-15 |
| Steelers | W 16-10 |
| @ Chargers | L 23-17 |
| @ Bills | L 32-29 |
| @ Bills | L 34-31 |
Bengals were 8-1 at home that season (including playoffs and one cancelled game against the Bills). They lost on the first day of the season to the Steelers in overtime despite losing the turnover battle 5-0 and outgaining them 432 yards to 267 and 32 first downs to 13. This was also a short week, Thursday night game.
Steelers ended the season 9-8.
Chargers ended the season 10-7 but were only 5-3 at home. Offense wasn't great (Tua was terrible) but the defense gave up over 400 yards.
Bills were 8-1 at home, 13-3 overall. Their only home loss was in overtime to the Vikings and that ridiculous Jefferson catch and Allen fumbling at the goal line. Both games were close, even the second one without Tua but again the defense gave up over 400 yards in both games. 2nd game though the defense forced turnovers which kept it close as Skylar was complete ass, completing less than 50% of his passes.
2023
| Opponent | Score |
| @ Patriots | W 24-17 |
| @ Eagles | L 31-17 |
| @ Jets | W 34-13 |
| Titans | L 28-27 |
| Bills | L 21-14 |
| @ Chiefs | L 26-7 |
Patriots were 1-8 at home, finished 4-13 and just a bad team. Score was closer than it should have been.
Eagles were 6-2 at home and finished 11-6 overall. Might be the worst officiated game I've ever seen. They went on a massive losing streak at the end of the season, until the 49ers demolished them in early December they were 10-1 and looked like the best team in the league.
Jets was the Black Friday game, they suck.
Titans was inexcusable, lots of injuries and a historic defensive collapse.
Bills and KC the roster was decimated by injuries by that point. I think we had 9 starters missing and others hobbling around.
I've left the Dallas game off as it was Christmas Eve but I was told it wasn't a prime time game as there was another game at the same time.
2024
| Opponent | Score |
| Bills | L 31-10 |
| Titans | L 31-12 |
| @ Rams | W 23-15 |
| @ Packers | L 30-17 |
Bills - Tua gets injured but they are kicking our asses before that anyway. Tua stunk and the defense stunk.
Titans - backup QB who couldn't complete a pass. Just a disgusting game all round, a game we should be embarrassed about.
Rams - that was a good win and one the defense played well. The Rams finished 10-7 but weren't a good home team only going 6-4 at home.
Packers - defense set an NFL record for the number of missed tackles (20) and the team was down 17-3 before Tua had his first incompletion. Packers finished 11-6 and 6-3 at home. Home loses were all to division rivals.
So I make that 5 home games, 10 road games for prime time games for a record of 4-11. Most of those road games have been against winning teams, the only 2 poor teams on the road they actually won those games. Good teams don't lose many games at home.
Both home loses to the Titans are disgusting.
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mwestberry
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Thanks for the work.
By the way, I'm not arguing a point. I'm curious if this is a trend we need to even think about.
This all started with a "way too early" prediction lol.
Predictions for the Dolphins make me think of where the team falls short.
Tough competition
cold weather
primetime
It's not a game here and there.
It's a trend the team can't seem to change, no matter who is calling the shots or on the field.
Two consistencies for the team during a span of around the last 20 years would be the owner and GM ... but I digress.
All three of the issues above are related to the management of the team.
Yes, other teams face similar problems, but they rebound and move forward.
There are a handful of teams that don't and instead wallow in it. Like the Browns. And the Dolphins.
We have seen the Dolphins play well. We know how they look when they are executing at a high level.
The team does not look like that when playing under the spotlight.
Not to my eyes.
The individual stats are really cool but the team looks like crap a lot of the time when a big moment is in play.
Is primetime a real problem? Is primetime THE real problem?
But with 5 games coming this season, there's a good chance we find out.
The Dolphins have had trouble in colder weather since their creation. It’s definitely an issue, but other than changing divisions (which should have happened decades ago) I don’t see how that can be fixed. Other teams, including cold weather teams like the Jets and a few others, have had worse success in colder weather.I'm not one of those you describe.
Comparing similar traits from other teams ... I get the point, but the Dolphins have been consistently questionable in weather cooler than 50 degrees for more than 20 YEARS.
Yes, other teams lose big games. It's a bummer, a downer ...
But if the team seems to trend in a certain direction under similar conditions, it becomes more noticeable ... less tolerable.
Losing a primetime game against the Super Bowl winners might be expected, but is losing 9 of 11 an acceptable ratio for those circumstances?
With that in mind, the team is already 1-4, in theory.
Sure, the other teams have similar issues, but the teams you mentioned don't have a history of underperforming when the atmosphere isn't perfect.
For me, I don't see the team moving forward from year to year. I see new faces, new "wrinkles," and at the end of the day, a mediocre record.
It's not because the players suck.
Losing 9 of 11 isn’t acceptable, but it also doesn’t mean that this team, this season, can’t win in primetime. Making predictions about future things based off of something like the time of day isn’t a reliable metric. Over the past three years, which is what we should look at in regard to timeframe, this team has suffered abnormal injuries, extremely good teams, and some pretty bad weather that affected both teams, in prime time games. I think those things have been a greater factor to the win/loss ratio than the time of day.
Ouch!