My case for Matt Ryan over John Beck | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

My case for Matt Ryan over John Beck

dlockz

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I will address the Ryan issues as someone said the questions have been avoided. There are alot of fallacies that I will dispel as not looking at the total picture and can be blamed on just looking at simple stat lines without looking deeper.

High number of interceptions- he threw 19 interceptions in 654 attempts
that is one interception every 35 attempts, hardly a high percentage of interceptions compared to other good prospects in fact his all time interception percentage is basically the same as Peyton Manning's.
Basically same percentage of interceptions as Jay Cutler and better than
Carson Palmer's and Drew Brees. Marino threw twice as many interceptions per attempt as Ryan. Edwards was higher also. No Qb comes close to Alex Smith 1 int every 72 attempts Colt Brennan 1 in 37 attempts, beck 1 in 41


Poor completion percentage- he completed 59.9 percent of his passes, thats hardly a poor percentage. He has a higher college completion percentage than Jay Cutler 57, slightly lower than eli Manning 60.8, slightly better than Carson Palmer 59.2, slightly less than Drew Brees 60.5, Marino 57.6, Edwards 56.2, Bruce Gradowski 68 percent, Alex Smith 66.3,Charlie Frye 63.6, Colt Brennan 70.4 Beck completed 62.4,


Yards per attempt - 6.91 for his college career Becks 7.8 , carson palmer 7.5,Eli Manning 7.4, Drew Brees 7.2, David carr 8.4, Phil Rivers 7.9, Jay Cutler 7.0, Jamarcus Russel 8.3, Marino 7.1, Kolb 8.3, Edwards 6.3, Troy Smith 8.5
Vince Young 8.4, Reggie Mc neal 8.0, Bruce Gradowski 8.2, Alex Smith 8.9
Aaron rodgers 8.2,Charlie Fry 7.7, Colt Brennan 8.9 Dan Marino 7.1
So yes Its slightly lower than some of the other qb's and almost exactly the same Jay Cutler's but you can see there are some qb's with real high numbers here that have been less than successful. Prob worst indicator of success.


As for dumpoffs to RB
that is a complete fallacy and if you are going to knock Ryan for his number one receiver than you might as well start knocking Beck for the same thing.

Okay lets explore his receivers

#1 RB Andre Callender sr 76 receptions 9.5 a catch, pretty high yards per catch for a runningback

#2 Rich Gunnel So WR 64 receptions 14.5 a catch , mid level recruit not highly ranked nationally three stars by rivals 5.5

#3 Brandon robinson Jr Wr 56 receptions 14.2 a catch , low level recruit

#4 Ryan Purvis TE Jr 54 receptions for 10.2 a catch mid level recruit

#5Kevin Challenger WR sr 45 receptions for 12.2 a catch mid level recruit

# 6 Clarence Megwa WR so 30 receptions for 11.8 a catch mid level rec

# 7 Justin Jarvis Jr WR 19 receptions for 14.5 low level recruit


John Beck

#1 Curtis Brown RB 62 catches for 9.1 avg

# 2 Johhny Harline TE 58 catches for 16 .1 mid level recruit

# 3 Mackay Jacobson WR 28 catched 19.5 mid level recruit

#4 Matt Allen Wr Low level recruit 27 catches 14.6

# 5 Zac Collie WR ranked 69th in country 26 catches 16.8

# 6 Michael Reed Wr mid level recruit 25 catches 13.6

#7Manase Tonga RB low level recuit 23 catches 10.0

Recruiting class rankings

BYU 2002(36) 2003(108) 2004

BC since joining the Acc has not finished higher than 7th and has averaged about 8th in class rankings within conference

BYU since 2002 has averaged 3rd in thier conf in recruiting and finished 1st twice

Ryan is just a higher rated prospect that has all the tools to be a very good quarterback. Beck may have a stronger arm but there is much debate if he has an elite arm(not on this board of course lol) , and is considered very accurate. Yes I think Beck may have a stronger arm and is a little more accurate but Ryan can make all the throws and just seems a better leader plus is about 3 inches taller with a slightly bigger frame. Ryan played in a better conferance with teams that the majority of which had higher rated talent than Boston College, while Beck played in a conferance where his team is always among the top 3 in talent. Ryan had more success versus ranked competition 4-4 versus Becks 1-7. I just feel that every year that Ryan was quarterback for BC the team exceeded expectations(Preseason ranked only once and it was low, was ranked in top 20 all three seasons including being ranked the highest in half a century and finishing 11th overall.)and he was undefeated in bowl games. His playing a great portion of his junior season with a broken foot and the adversity of the Va Tech game in bad conditions
just show me that he is a very tough football player who keeps his head in the games at all times. Alot of Qb's would have lost confidence when they called back the one touchdown with seconds left but he just went ahead and
did what was needed. I dont think Beck is a bad prospect, just that Ryan is a better prospect and would make for a perfect leader of our offense. People may not want to accept it on this board but Ryan is a higher graded prospect than our own Beck by most so called experts thats why Ryan is being considered near the top of the first round and Beck was considered near the top of the second round. Does this mean that Ryan will be a better Qb, of course not, just that most scouts expect him to be.

6-5 225 Some scouting reports from Warroom: http://www.mymockdraft.com/Scouting-Report/Matt-Ryan.aspx

Good size and a big frame...Smart and understands how to read a defense...Is a natural born leader...Solid technique and mechanics...Displays great poise...Good touch and timing...Able to buy time in the pocket...Throws well on the run...A hard worker...Has experience running a pro style offense...Top-notch competitor and a winner...Is tough, strong and fearless...Productive and had an outstanding senior campaign...Very dedicated and extremely passionate about the game of football.
Negatives:
Arm strength is only average...Still throws too many interceptions...Accuracy can be streaky...Struggles with the deep ball...A bit of a gunslinger who will play too recklessly at times...Not very mobile and won't beat you with his feet...May have some minor durability issues...Isn't a great athlete...May not have a huge upside.

http://warroomreport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=61&Itemid=1
Strengths: Took his game to a whole new level in 2007…strong leadership abilities…complete control of offense…does not lock on to one receiver…cerebral quarterback…solid arm strength…savvy in the pocket…smooth delivery and throwing motion…prototypical frame…continues to progress…underrated athleticism…

Weaknesses: Limited upside…arm strength is good, but not great…has he maxed out on his abilities?…lacks mobility outside the pocket… struggles to at times throwing on the run...

From MVN scouting report
Matt Ryan will be the number one quarterback on the board of every team. The senior from Boston College has the best physical tools of any quarterback in this upcoming draft. He is a great leader and remains calm under pressure. There might be other quarterbacks with stronger arms or better mobility, but Ryan has no weaknesses in any category and that will make him the safest quarterback to draft.

Note from Celtkin: Mel Kiper's chat was deleted because there was not URL citation. You have to tell us the URL where you got the material !

Now I know I am not going to change one person's mind that is set on Beck with this post, but you cannot deny that this guy coudl be a very good NFL quarterback. If our leadership feels that Beck is a special guy, I have no problem if they decide to go other places with this pick but if the plan is to take a Flacco or somebody in second why not get the best prospect if not draft Colt Brennan later as a project. I dont understand the logic Beck will be a great Qb so we draft a second round Qb, if we feel he will be so good why are we still drafting another Qb so high. I still would rather take the Jimmy Johnson dart approach with Qb and throw darts at two strong targets rather than trying to catch lightning in a bottle with a project later on with a developmental guy like Flacco much too early.
 
Nice assessment, you obviously put some work into that.

I don't think most people on here think John Beck is as good as Matt Ryan, just that Matt Ryan is not worth the first pick of the draft and the draft pick could be better used elsewhere. I don't want Matt Ryan with the first pick but I do think he is a much better QB than John Beck.
 
nice post dlockz.. still doesn't mean he's so much better that he's worth the first overall pick... nothing is there that screams franchise qb.. all "I" see is a guy worthy of the mid first round and no better.
 
I'll be honest, I didn't read the entire thing but I probably read about half and you made some good points.
My take on Ryan: He doesn't seem that good to me, plain and simple. I'm so opposed to taking a QB early (not to mention first overall) just for the sake of taking a QB. There are better players than Ryan in this draft and you don't want to pay a decent to good QB first overall money if you're not completely sure he'll pan out.
 
nice post dlockz.. still doesn't mean he's so much better that he's worth the first overall pick... nothing is there that screams franchise qb.. all "I" see is a guy worthy of the mid first round and no better.


I can buy that arguement as for first overall as to whether he is worth it but unless we take Jake Long or Dorsey(which I doubt because of our defense and health) i feel that none of the other guys are that much more special than other players at thier position in the draft. I do feel Qb is a special position where the talent pool for players to actually contribute in a good way in the NFL is so thin in any given year that Qb somewhat deserves to be overdrafted. Realistically I doubt anybody thought Russel was an overall higher rated prospect than Johnson but his physical attributes for the position was too much for a Qb hungry team. I do think successful qb's though seem to succeed on thier mental attributes as well as thier toughness and leadership more than any other position over standard measurables .
 
I don't think that anyone is denying that Ryan won't be good QB at the next level. But to address your argument here, why spend another high draft pick on a QB that, by your own post, may be as good at or the least, only a slightly better prospect than the one that we have ??

If we were one or two players away, I'd agree that you may have an argument for drafting Ryan, but we certainly are not anywhere near that close. There is no certainty that Ryan will be our next Marino. There is no certainty that Beck is that guy either, but we've already paid the big bonus and a years' salary, have him under contract and he's not a total wash by any stretch of the imagination. In fact many, including our FO, feel he is quite worthy to be our QB going forward. Many draftniks have Ryan closer to Alex Smith at this point than Carson Palmer or Peyton so why spend the draft pick and money on a QB when we can, by most assessments, get thru this with Beck and we can spend the pick on a replacement for JT or an OL or an OLB ???

I don't see that you have enough argument here. I'm not sold on Beck just yet, but I'm even less sold on Ryan at this point...
 
I am totally against Matt Ryan as the #1 overall . . . now if he slides to 32, thats another story . . . and if I do like Ryan over Beck, its more due to his height . . . because I think Beck has a better arm and is more accurate. There is NO WAY I would take Ryan in this draft with the #1 pick . . . just not going to happen . . . there is just too many holes on this team to draft a QB #1 overall who at BEST is marginally better than what we have, and that is very debatable.
 
beck and ryan are both going to be good quarterbacks, i think. i just wish people would give a beck a chance to show us something. he only played in 4 games, in horrible circumstances. the question is, do you think ryan wouldve done any better being thrown into the same situation as beck last year?? i think not. i dont even think tom brady would have done any better being thrown into that situation either.
 
Only a few odd balls here are saying M.Ryan won't be any good, most of us just think there shouldn't have to be a debate why Ryan should be draft with such a high pick when we already have a QB. It's not like M.RYAN is a sure fire franchise guy, if he was there would be zero debate of course we'd take him. The majority are okay taking a QB later in the draft we want a stud OT or DL/OLB now with that pick. Which also would result in giving Beck a fair shake at starters job. Nobody really needs to prove their case because a player of this nature should speak of himself no extra proof needed. I truely believe J.Long and C.Long speak for themselves and the only real debatable player would be DMac. Only because RB hasn't finished a season yet and DMac is great at the RB postion (there's no debating that).
 
Only a few odd balls here are saying M.Ryan won't be any good, most of us just think there shouldn't have to be a debate why Ryan should be draft with such a high pick when we already have a QB. It's not like M.RYAN is a sure fire franchise guy, if he was there would be zero debate of course we'd take him. The majority are okay taking a QB later in the draft we want a stud OT or DL/OLB now with that pick. Which also would result in giving Beck a fair shake at starters job. Nobody really needs to prove their case because a player of this nature should speak of himself no extra proof needed. I truely believe J.Long and C.Long speak for themselves and the only real debatable player would be DMac. Only because RB hasn't finished a season yet and DMac is great at the RB postion (there's no debating that).


Hah.. I was with you till this last sentence.

I could EASILY debate that all day long..and show you irreuptable proof why he isnt even the best back in the draft...not even second best (And that does include Stewart who will be out 4-6 months because of toe surgery).

Do this for me..go watch all the Youtube footage of D-mac. Tell me how many times you see him actually break a tackle in all those highlight reels...

Dmac is gonna really really struggle at the next level, and because of his build, probably wont be in the league very long.:up:
 
I could EASILY debate that all day long..and show you irreuptable proof why he isnt even the best back in the draft...not even second best (And that does include Stewart who will be out 4-6 months because of toe surgery).

The only thing debatable is that the RB selection this year is really deep. Which also means if we wait 3 years there could be someone other than DMac as the best RB statistics wise.
Let's let DMac play first before we give him a can't play at the NFL level yet. Every college analyist can't be wrong can they. I have a hard time believing this kid will struggle in NE or NYJ system if that's where he ends up going, Oakland well maybe. AP was put in the greatest situation for a RB, dominant O-Lineman,run 1st, 2nd and 3rd options.
 
If you honestly can say DMac is not a great back coming out of college then you can debate that all day long but you'll be doing that with yourself.
 
Nice assessment, you obviously put some work into that.

I don't think most people on here think John Beck is as good as Matt Ryan, just that Matt Ryan is not worth the first pick of the draft and the draft pick could be better used elsewhere. I don't want Matt Ryan with the first pick but I do think he is a much better QB than John Beck.
you summed up my feelings to a tee..why waste yet another high draft pick before beck even gets a chance to show he has it or not? and on a qb who is only a "franchise qb" this year because nobody else is good enough. we went out and signed mcnown this offseason as well so qb this year isn't a presser. theres a whole lot better qb class coming up in about 2 yrs and i would rather have the oppurtunity to get one then(still need to draft a qb this yr just not with the 1). lets do what we can to give beck the best oppurtunity to succeed on this team and bring in jake long/go d with the first and pick up a t in the second as talent will be there.

as for the post dlocks yes thank you for the read as it brought some things to my attention that i was not concidering.
 
I will address the Ryan issues as someone said the questions have been avoided. There are alot of fallacies that I will dispel as not looking at the total picture and can be blamed on just looking at simple stat lines without looking deeper.

High number of interceptions- he threw 19 interceptions in 654 attempts
that is one interception every 35 attempts, hardly a high percentage of interceptions compared to other good prospects in fact his all time interception percentage is basically the same as Peyton Manning's.
Basically same percentage of interceptions as Jay Cutler and better than
Carson Palmer's and Drew Brees. Marino threw twice as many interceptions per attempt as Ryan. Edwards was higher also. No Qb comes close to Alex Smith 1 int every 72 attempts Colt Brennan 1 in 37 attempts, beck 1 in 41


Poor completion percentage- he completed 59.9 percent of his passes, thats hardly a poor percentage. He has a higher college completion percentage than Jay Cutler 57, slightly lower than eli Manning 60.8, slightly better than Carson Palmer 59.2, slightly less than Drew Brees 60.5, Marino 57.6, Edwards 56.2, Bruce Gradowski 68 percent, Alex Smith 66.3,Charlie Frye 63.6, Colt Brennan 70.4 Beck completed 62.4,


Yards per attempt - 6.91 for his college career Becks 7.8 , carson palmer 7.5,Eli Manning 7.4, Drew Brees 7.2, David carr 8.4, Phil Rivers 7.9, Jay Cutler 7.0, Jamarcus Russel 8.3, Marino 7.1, Kolb 8.3, Edwards 6.3, Troy Smith 8.5
Vince Young 8.4, Reggie Mc neal 8.0, Bruce Gradowski 8.2, Alex Smith 8.9
Aaron rodgers 8.2,Charlie Fry 7.7, Colt Brennan 8.9 Dan Marino 7.1
So yes Its slightly lower than some of the other qb's and almost exactly the same Jay Cutler's but you can see there are some qb's with real high numbers here that have been less than successful. Prob worst indicator of success.


As for dumpoffs to RB
that is a complete fallacy and if you are going to knock Ryan for his number one receiver than you might as well start knocking Beck for the same thing.

Okay lets explore his receivers

#1 RB Andre Callender sr 76 receptions 9.5 a catch, pretty high yards per catch for a runningback

#2 Rich Gunnel So WR 64 receptions 14.5 a catch , mid level recruit not highly ranked nationally three stars by rivals 5.5

#3 Brandon robinson Jr Wr 56 receptions 14.2 a catch , low level recruit

#4 Ryan Purvis TE Jr 54 receptions for 10.2 a catch mid level recruit

#5Kevin Challenger WR sr 45 receptions for 12.2 a catch mid level recruit

# 6 Clarence Megwa WR so 30 receptions for 11.8 a catch mid level rec

# 7 Justin Jarvis Jr WR 19 receptions for 14.5 low level recruit


John Beck

#1 Curtis Brown RB 62 catches for 9.1 avg

# 2 Johhny Harline TE 58 catches for 16 .1 mid level recruit

# 3 Mackay Jacobson WR 28 catched 19.5 mid level recruit

#4 Matt Allen Wr Low level recruit 27 catches 14.6

# 5 Zac Collie WR ranked 69th in country 26 catches 16.8

# 6 Michael Reed Wr mid level recruit 25 catches 13.6

#7Manase Tonga RB low level recuit 23 catches 10.0

Recruiting class rankings

BYU 2002(36) 2003(108) 2004

BC since joining the Acc has not finished higher than 7th and has averaged about 8th in class rankings within conference

BYU since 2002 has averaged 3rd in thier conf in recruiting and finished 1st twice

Ryan is just a higher rated prospect that has all the tools to be a very good quarterback. Beck may have a stronger arm but there is much debate if he has an elite arm(not on this board of course lol) , and is considered very accurate. Yes I think Beck may have a stronger arm and is a little more accurate but Ryan can make all the throws and just seems a better leader plus is about 3 inches taller with a slightly bigger frame. Ryan played in a better conferance with teams that the majority of which had higher rated talent than Boston College, while Beck played in a conferance where his team is always among the top 3 in talent. Ryan had more success versus ranked competition 4-4 versus Becks 1-7. I just feel that every year that Ryan was quarterback for BC the team exceeded expectations(Preseason ranked only once and it was low, was ranked in top 20 all three seasons including being ranked the highest in half a century and finishing 11th overall.)and he was undefeated in bowl games. His playing a great portion of his junior season with a broken foot and the adversity of the Va Tech game in bad conditions
just show me that he is a very tough football player who keeps his head in the games at all times. Alot of Qb's would have lost confidence when they called back the one touchdown with seconds left but he just went ahead and
did what was needed. I dont think Beck is a bad prospect, just that Ryan is a better prospect and would make for a perfect leader of our offense. People may not want to accept it on this board but Ryan is a higher graded prospect than our own Beck by most so called experts thats why Ryan is being considered near the top of the first round and Beck was considered near the top of the second round. Does this mean that Ryan will be a better Qb, of course not, just that most scouts expect him to be.

6-5 225 Some scouting reports from Warroom: http://www.mymockdraft.com/Scouting-Report/Matt-Ryan.aspx



http://warroomreport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=61&Itemid=1


From MVN scouting report


offensive Line: Once a staple of BC teams the offensive line play in recent years has declined significantly. The injury to underrated LG Ryan Poles really hurt the offensive line last season, resulting in myriad struggles during the latter stages of the season.


Now I know I am not going to change one person's mind that is set on Beck with this post, but you cannot deny that this guy coudl be a very good NFL quarterback. If our leadership feels that Beck is a special guy, I have no problem if they decide to go other places with this pick but if the plan is to take a Flacco or somebody in second why not get the best prospect if not draft Colt Brennan later as a project. I dont understand the logic Beck will be a great Qb so we draft a second round Qb, if we feel he will be so good why are we still drafting another Qb so high. I still would rather take the Jimmy Johnson dart approach with Qb and throw darts at two strong targets rather than trying to catch lightning in a bottle with a project later on with a developmental guy like Flacco much too early.

I edited your post to eliminate the plagiarism and add citations, as I asked you twice to do and I deleted quotes that I was unable to find sources for.
 
I edited your post to eliminate the plagiarism and add citations, as I asked you twice to do and I deleted quotes that I was unable to find sources for.


Both times I tryed to edit my post appropriately, I thank you for your help but its not like I ignored you twice as the way your post seems to imply.
 
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