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Here’s Part I of my evaluation of the Dolphins’ draft. Except as otherwise noted, I am not addressing the health issues associated with the guys we picked, as I have not examined any of these guys, nor have I reviewed their x-rays, MRIs, etc. If I had done any of those things, I’d probably be chased down for practicing medicine without a license. I have no more experience as an NFL coach than I do as an orthopedic surgeon, but fortunately I don’t need a license to opine about the Dolphins.
Jason Allen – First, I felt that secondary help was our greatest defensive need, with safety the position where I felt we needed the most help. With the addition of Capers to our staff, I assume we will continue to move toward more and more 3-4 formations. In the modern 3-4, with heavy use of zone blitz packages, safety has become a potential impact position. While conventional wisdom values CBs much more than safeties, I’m not sure that’s the case in a zone-blitz 3-4 defense. In recent years, guys like Polamalu, Ed Reed, Roy Williams, etc. have been true impact players at the safety position. Because these defenses are premised on confusing the offense with shifting coverages and blitzers from several different locations, the safety has a significant advantage over the opposing QB – he knows where the rush is coming from and where the defense may need coverage help. A smart safety has a good opportunity to know where the QB will likely be looking once he sees where the blitz is coming from. Another reason a safety can be an impact player in these 3-4 defenses, is the opportunity to blitz himself. Yeremiah Bell had 3 sacks in relatively limited playing time. Third, with so many 3 and 4 receiver sets being used in the NFL, having a safety who can actually cover a WR gives the defense great flexibility in that it isn’t forced into a nickel or dime package whenever the offense brings in a 3rd receiver. When was the last time the Dolphins had a safety with whom you felt comfortable in coverage on a WR? There hasn’t been one in my lifetime.
Assuming he is healthy, Jason Allen was a very good pick. Judging from his combine performance, Allen appears to be healthy. If he is not, then he is an absolutely unbelievable athlete. Allen had one of the best combine performances for any DB in the last 5-10 years. At 6-1, 209, he ran the 40 between 4.34 and 4.41 (I’ve seen his times listed throughout that range, with 4.39 the most oft-cited number), had a 39.5 inch vertical jump, a 10’11†broad jump, did 17 reps at 225, ran the short shuttle in 3.83 and the 3-cone drill in 6.77 seconds. All of those measurements were top notch. CKparrothead did a DB athleticism analysis of guys over the last several years based solely on measurables, and Allen came out on top by a significant margin. That included Pro Bowlers like Champ Bailey and Chris McAllister. Allen’s performance is even more notable in some of the measurables that people pay less attention to, but which are probably more relevant than 40 time and bench reps: 10-yard split, short shuttle and cone drill.
Allen ran the first 10 yards of the 40 in 1.50 seconds, which is phenomenally fast – faster than all but 1 DB in this year’s draft (Tim Jennings at 1.48). This, along with his very good size, bodes very well for Allen’s ability to be effective as a blitzer. Allen did the short shuttle in 3.83 seconds, which was the best of any DB in this year’s draft and was one of only 2 guys to crack 4 seconds. His 3-cone time was fifth best among DBs in this draft. This kind of performance at the Combine suggests that he is healthy. If this performance was at only 90% strength, i.e., if you increased/decreased his numbers by 10%, his numbers would be superhuman.
As a player, Allen was extremely productive. As a CB in 2005, he had 35 tackles in 4.5 games, an average of about 8 per game, which is excellent for a CB. Don’t worry, that was not because he was being picked on – the WRs he was primarily responsible for caught only 15 passes for 136 yards in those 4.5 games. Chad Jackson caught 8 of those, but for only 53 yards, an average of less than 7 yards per reception.
In 2004, he played 12 games at safety and averaged nearly 10 tackles per game (7 solo). His total tackle numbers led the SEC. That compares very well to the 2 safeties taken before Allen: Huff (8.5 tackles per game in 2005, 4 solo) and Whitner (6.5 tackles per game in 2005, 5 solo). In 2004, Allen also had 2 sacks, 3 tackles for losses, 2 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, and 5 passes defensed. These impact play numbers are pretty comparable to what Huff and Whitner did last year.
Where Allen starts to distinguish himself even more from Huff and Whitner is in coverage. Allen has played meaningful time at CB, whereas Huff and Whitner have not. While there has been talk that Huff and Whitner might be able to play CB, they haven’t really done it, even at the college level (except for a few games early in Huff’s college career). Russ Lande (GM Jr.) had Allen rated not only as the top safety in the draft, but also the top corner.
Did we get value at 16? That’s hard to say. Two safeties were already off the board. One of the other big corners (Jimmy Williams) fell to the second round, so he wouldn’t have been a value pick at 16. Antonio Cromartie would have been a possibility, but I think there are a lot more questions about him than Allen due to Cromartie’s more limited playing time. Cromartie has never played safety and, while he has the size to do it, that would have been a pure projection. No defensive players who were expected to go in the top 10-12 were still available at 16. Lawson and Greenway were other options, but I think safety is the greater need for this defense. Could we have traded back and still gotten Allen? It’s possible, but would be pure speculation at this point.
Next: Part II (Hagan)
Jason Allen – First, I felt that secondary help was our greatest defensive need, with safety the position where I felt we needed the most help. With the addition of Capers to our staff, I assume we will continue to move toward more and more 3-4 formations. In the modern 3-4, with heavy use of zone blitz packages, safety has become a potential impact position. While conventional wisdom values CBs much more than safeties, I’m not sure that’s the case in a zone-blitz 3-4 defense. In recent years, guys like Polamalu, Ed Reed, Roy Williams, etc. have been true impact players at the safety position. Because these defenses are premised on confusing the offense with shifting coverages and blitzers from several different locations, the safety has a significant advantage over the opposing QB – he knows where the rush is coming from and where the defense may need coverage help. A smart safety has a good opportunity to know where the QB will likely be looking once he sees where the blitz is coming from. Another reason a safety can be an impact player in these 3-4 defenses, is the opportunity to blitz himself. Yeremiah Bell had 3 sacks in relatively limited playing time. Third, with so many 3 and 4 receiver sets being used in the NFL, having a safety who can actually cover a WR gives the defense great flexibility in that it isn’t forced into a nickel or dime package whenever the offense brings in a 3rd receiver. When was the last time the Dolphins had a safety with whom you felt comfortable in coverage on a WR? There hasn’t been one in my lifetime.
Assuming he is healthy, Jason Allen was a very good pick. Judging from his combine performance, Allen appears to be healthy. If he is not, then he is an absolutely unbelievable athlete. Allen had one of the best combine performances for any DB in the last 5-10 years. At 6-1, 209, he ran the 40 between 4.34 and 4.41 (I’ve seen his times listed throughout that range, with 4.39 the most oft-cited number), had a 39.5 inch vertical jump, a 10’11†broad jump, did 17 reps at 225, ran the short shuttle in 3.83 and the 3-cone drill in 6.77 seconds. All of those measurements were top notch. CKparrothead did a DB athleticism analysis of guys over the last several years based solely on measurables, and Allen came out on top by a significant margin. That included Pro Bowlers like Champ Bailey and Chris McAllister. Allen’s performance is even more notable in some of the measurables that people pay less attention to, but which are probably more relevant than 40 time and bench reps: 10-yard split, short shuttle and cone drill.
Allen ran the first 10 yards of the 40 in 1.50 seconds, which is phenomenally fast – faster than all but 1 DB in this year’s draft (Tim Jennings at 1.48). This, along with his very good size, bodes very well for Allen’s ability to be effective as a blitzer. Allen did the short shuttle in 3.83 seconds, which was the best of any DB in this year’s draft and was one of only 2 guys to crack 4 seconds. His 3-cone time was fifth best among DBs in this draft. This kind of performance at the Combine suggests that he is healthy. If this performance was at only 90% strength, i.e., if you increased/decreased his numbers by 10%, his numbers would be superhuman.
As a player, Allen was extremely productive. As a CB in 2005, he had 35 tackles in 4.5 games, an average of about 8 per game, which is excellent for a CB. Don’t worry, that was not because he was being picked on – the WRs he was primarily responsible for caught only 15 passes for 136 yards in those 4.5 games. Chad Jackson caught 8 of those, but for only 53 yards, an average of less than 7 yards per reception.
In 2004, he played 12 games at safety and averaged nearly 10 tackles per game (7 solo). His total tackle numbers led the SEC. That compares very well to the 2 safeties taken before Allen: Huff (8.5 tackles per game in 2005, 4 solo) and Whitner (6.5 tackles per game in 2005, 5 solo). In 2004, Allen also had 2 sacks, 3 tackles for losses, 2 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, and 5 passes defensed. These impact play numbers are pretty comparable to what Huff and Whitner did last year.
Where Allen starts to distinguish himself even more from Huff and Whitner is in coverage. Allen has played meaningful time at CB, whereas Huff and Whitner have not. While there has been talk that Huff and Whitner might be able to play CB, they haven’t really done it, even at the college level (except for a few games early in Huff’s college career). Russ Lande (GM Jr.) had Allen rated not only as the top safety in the draft, but also the top corner.
Did we get value at 16? That’s hard to say. Two safeties were already off the board. One of the other big corners (Jimmy Williams) fell to the second round, so he wouldn’t have been a value pick at 16. Antonio Cromartie would have been a possibility, but I think there are a lot more questions about him than Allen due to Cromartie’s more limited playing time. Cromartie has never played safety and, while he has the size to do it, that would have been a pure projection. No defensive players who were expected to go in the top 10-12 were still available at 16. Lawson and Greenway were other options, but I think safety is the greater need for this defense. Could we have traded back and still gotten Allen? It’s possible, but would be pure speculation at this point.
Next: Part II (Hagan)
