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Joe Toledo – I think the Allen and Hagan picks were very solid, but I do not like the Toledo pick. He looks like he might be a nice “toy†for Houck to play with, but the 4th round was simply too high for a guy who played only a handful of games on the offensive line and has had a history of assorted injuries. To make matters worse, the games he did play at OL were at OT, but it looks like we’ve got him at guard. Because of his relatively short arms, guard may be the better fit for him, but he has no experience at the position. To me, a 4th round pick should be a guy who contributes his rookie year, yet I see little chance of that happening with Toledo. I’d have been happy with him in the 6th or 7th, but the 4th seems too high. I have heard anecdotally that Dallas was ready to take him in the 4th and that he wouldn’t have been there if we passed on him in the 4th, but I still think it’s too high for a project.
I have seen very little tape of Toledo and what I have seen was largely at TE. He was not as big then as he is now, but looked like a pretty impressive athlete for a guy who is now near 340 pounds. His measurables testing was very good, but not so unique to warrant the reach. That said, those measurables may be skewed somewhat due to his rapid weight gain (nearly 50 pounds) over the past year. It may well be that he would be more comfortable at a lighter weight and his measurables at 315-325 might be unique. He reportedly ran a 4.76 40 earlier in his college career at a lighter weight and may well be right around a 5.0 40 at 320 pounds, which is pretty impressive.
In looking at a project like this, you really can only go on athleticism, work ethic and the glimpses of what you’ve seen so far. Since I’ve seen so little of him, and even scouts haven’t seen that much, I’m going to focus on athleticism and work ethic/coachability. The laws of physics indicate that force is measure of mass times acceleration. For all practical purposes (on earth), mass is equivalent to weight. Vertical jump and 10-yard splits are pretty good measures of acceleration. Gravity causes all objects to accelerate to the earth at a rate of 9.8 m/s/s. To jump (against gravity), one must overcome that level of acceleration over the distance of the jump. Thus, without regard to units, a player’s weight times his vertical jump provides a measure of the force he is able to generate with his lower body. Similarly, the 10-yard split provides a pretty good measure of acceleration from a stop over a short distance, which when multiplied by the player’s weight gives a good measure of force as well.
Taking an average of these two measures of force provides a useful look at the force that an OL can generate at the snap over a short distance. To avoid overweighing one or the other, I am setting the unit of measurement for acceleration at yds/s/s, and I am assuming constant acceleration over the 10 yards of the 10-yard split.
Toledo weighed 337 at the Combine and ran the 10-yard split in 1.80 seconds. He had a 29 inch vertical jump at his Pro Day. 10 yards divided by 1.8 seconds equals a velocity of 5.55 yards per second (which can be used as a measure of acceleration assuming acceleration is constant over that short area). His “force factor†based on the 10-yard split would be 337 * 5.55 = 1870.35.
Measured in yards/s/s, the acceleration caused by gravity is 10.72 yds/s/s. Assuming no “bounce,†when an object hits the ground from a given height, its force of impact is its mass times its acceleration times the height. Accordingly, the force required to lift an object to a given height is the mass times the acceleration times the height. For Toledo to lift his 337 pounds to a height of 29 inches required a “force factor†of (337)(10.72)(.8055) = 2910. Averaging Toledo’s 10-yd split force factor and his vertical force factor gives an average force factor of 2390. Below is a comparison of Toledo’s average “force factor†of 2390 to other prominent big men in this draft:
Ngata 2561
McNeil 2505
Whitworth 2419
DJoseph 2375
Bunkley 2375
Lutui 2288
ISowells 2255
Jean-Gilles 2219
Watson 2209
On this scale of lower body force potential, Toledo ranks pretty well with the top “people movers†in the draft. Not at the very top, but right there in the second tier with Whitworth, Joseph and Bunkley.
This is just a measure of lower body explosion potential, it does not factor in upper body strength. It’s also important to note that technique plays a big role in how well this lower body force potential is realized on the field. This is hopefully where Houck comes in.
I’m not terribly satisfied with bench reps as a measure of upper body strength. Reps is as much a measure of stamina and endurance as of pure strength. On the other hand, stamina and endurance are important qualities for an OL. The other major deficiency in the bench numbers is that it doesn’t itself account for differences in arm length. Short-armed guys have an advantage. Why? Because it takes less work to move the bar 31 inches than it does to move it 36 inches. Physics can once again shed some light on this issue. Just as lower body force can be measured/estimated by factoring in weight and distance, so can upper body strength. It just so happens that this also provides a measure of “work†and is related to the measure for torque. For this, I looked at upper body strength as the product of the number of reps at 225 and the player’s arm length.
Toledo did a respectable 31 reps, but his relatively short arms hurt him here. His arm length measured at 32.75 in., which is relatively short for an OL. His upper body strength factor comes out to 1048. Here’s how Toledo’s 1048 upper body strength factor compares with the other big men in the draft:
Bunkley 1485
Watson 1192
Whitworth 980
Jean-Gilles 945
DJoseph 843
Winston 704
Sowells 688
I am missing some of the necessary data to get a measure for Ngata, McNeil and Justice, although I think they would all come out ahead of Toledo. As with the lower body force factor above, Toledo does well here, but not at the very top of the list.
In short, Toledo appears to have the raw physical ability to develop into a good or very good OL. If it happens though, it is likely to be at least a year or two down the road. I would have liked to have seen a 4th round pick who has a little more chance of making a meaningful contribution this year. There were at least a dozen other players I'd have preferred to see the Fins take in the 4th.
I have seen very little tape of Toledo and what I have seen was largely at TE. He was not as big then as he is now, but looked like a pretty impressive athlete for a guy who is now near 340 pounds. His measurables testing was very good, but not so unique to warrant the reach. That said, those measurables may be skewed somewhat due to his rapid weight gain (nearly 50 pounds) over the past year. It may well be that he would be more comfortable at a lighter weight and his measurables at 315-325 might be unique. He reportedly ran a 4.76 40 earlier in his college career at a lighter weight and may well be right around a 5.0 40 at 320 pounds, which is pretty impressive.
In looking at a project like this, you really can only go on athleticism, work ethic and the glimpses of what you’ve seen so far. Since I’ve seen so little of him, and even scouts haven’t seen that much, I’m going to focus on athleticism and work ethic/coachability. The laws of physics indicate that force is measure of mass times acceleration. For all practical purposes (on earth), mass is equivalent to weight. Vertical jump and 10-yard splits are pretty good measures of acceleration. Gravity causes all objects to accelerate to the earth at a rate of 9.8 m/s/s. To jump (against gravity), one must overcome that level of acceleration over the distance of the jump. Thus, without regard to units, a player’s weight times his vertical jump provides a measure of the force he is able to generate with his lower body. Similarly, the 10-yard split provides a pretty good measure of acceleration from a stop over a short distance, which when multiplied by the player’s weight gives a good measure of force as well.
Taking an average of these two measures of force provides a useful look at the force that an OL can generate at the snap over a short distance. To avoid overweighing one or the other, I am setting the unit of measurement for acceleration at yds/s/s, and I am assuming constant acceleration over the 10 yards of the 10-yard split.
Toledo weighed 337 at the Combine and ran the 10-yard split in 1.80 seconds. He had a 29 inch vertical jump at his Pro Day. 10 yards divided by 1.8 seconds equals a velocity of 5.55 yards per second (which can be used as a measure of acceleration assuming acceleration is constant over that short area). His “force factor†based on the 10-yard split would be 337 * 5.55 = 1870.35.
Measured in yards/s/s, the acceleration caused by gravity is 10.72 yds/s/s. Assuming no “bounce,†when an object hits the ground from a given height, its force of impact is its mass times its acceleration times the height. Accordingly, the force required to lift an object to a given height is the mass times the acceleration times the height. For Toledo to lift his 337 pounds to a height of 29 inches required a “force factor†of (337)(10.72)(.8055) = 2910. Averaging Toledo’s 10-yd split force factor and his vertical force factor gives an average force factor of 2390. Below is a comparison of Toledo’s average “force factor†of 2390 to other prominent big men in this draft:
Ngata 2561
McNeil 2505
Whitworth 2419
DJoseph 2375
Bunkley 2375
Lutui 2288
ISowells 2255
Jean-Gilles 2219
Watson 2209
On this scale of lower body force potential, Toledo ranks pretty well with the top “people movers†in the draft. Not at the very top, but right there in the second tier with Whitworth, Joseph and Bunkley.
This is just a measure of lower body explosion potential, it does not factor in upper body strength. It’s also important to note that technique plays a big role in how well this lower body force potential is realized on the field. This is hopefully where Houck comes in.
I’m not terribly satisfied with bench reps as a measure of upper body strength. Reps is as much a measure of stamina and endurance as of pure strength. On the other hand, stamina and endurance are important qualities for an OL. The other major deficiency in the bench numbers is that it doesn’t itself account for differences in arm length. Short-armed guys have an advantage. Why? Because it takes less work to move the bar 31 inches than it does to move it 36 inches. Physics can once again shed some light on this issue. Just as lower body force can be measured/estimated by factoring in weight and distance, so can upper body strength. It just so happens that this also provides a measure of “work†and is related to the measure for torque. For this, I looked at upper body strength as the product of the number of reps at 225 and the player’s arm length.
Toledo did a respectable 31 reps, but his relatively short arms hurt him here. His arm length measured at 32.75 in., which is relatively short for an OL. His upper body strength factor comes out to 1048. Here’s how Toledo’s 1048 upper body strength factor compares with the other big men in the draft:
Bunkley 1485
Watson 1192
Whitworth 980
Jean-Gilles 945
DJoseph 843
Winston 704
Sowells 688
I am missing some of the necessary data to get a measure for Ngata, McNeil and Justice, although I think they would all come out ahead of Toledo. As with the lower body force factor above, Toledo does well here, but not at the very top of the list.
In short, Toledo appears to have the raw physical ability to develop into a good or very good OL. If it happens though, it is likely to be at least a year or two down the road. I would have liked to have seen a 4th round pick who has a little more chance of making a meaningful contribution this year. There were at least a dozen other players I'd have preferred to see the Fins take in the 4th.
