My draft thoughts | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

My draft thoughts

KendallCat

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A couple of things I think we will see next weekend....

* Miami will do one of two things with their # 1 pick. We will either trade up to #6 with our 1st and 3rd going to the Redskins for Quinn, or we will move down to between #12-16 and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd.

* The boards that you see with all of the mocks will have around half of their selections correct, but you will see several picks in the top 10-12 that are not what is projected. Look for positions with little depth going early like LB (Willis and Polsuzny) of which one of them will be in the top 10 - most likely Willis.

* Ginn will drop in the 1st round along with Jarrett, and with the depth of WR's in this draft teams will take a WR later because they can. Same goes for Defensive end.

* Anthony Spencer the DE from Purdue will go much higher than expected

* Jamarcus Russell will be a decent QB in the NFL, but given the fact he has only had one decent year at LSU and his best game was against Notre Dame in the bowl game he is being overvalued by 8-10 spots right now. He has a cannon of an arm without question, but do did Jeff George coming out in 1990

* If Oakland was smart they would take Calvin Johnson with the #1 pick, and then take the best QB available in the 2nd (Stanton, Kolb, or Edwards), and then go with Doug Free from N. Illinois or Marten from BC at LT.

* Cleveland will take Peterson at #3 because he is the BPA and Crennel and his staff better win this year or they are gone. Usually RB's and DE's can have the most impact as rookies.

* Our best move would be to move down to around #12-14 and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd, and then use the extra pick along with the 2nd rounder for Welker to move up and get a late 1st rounder. With our middle 1st rounder we can go with the BPA - possibly Willis, Ginn, Kalil, Brown, Branch, Olsen, or Revis, and with our late 1st rounder we can go with either Rice, Jarrett, Blaylock, or Meachem.

* With our #40 we get our QB with either Kolb or Stanton, and with our #71 we go BPA (Beekman, Solai, Higgins, or Free.

Ultimately we need to come out of this draft with help at the QB spot, a game-breaker on offense, help on the o-line, and a good young DB.
 
A couple of things I think we will see next weekend....

* Miami will do one of two things with their # 1 pick. We will either trade up to #6 with our 1st and 3rd going to the Redskins for Quinn, or we will move down to between #12-16 and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd.

* The boards that you see with all of the mocks will have around half of their selections correct, but you will see several picks in the top 10-12 that are not what is projected. Look for positions with little depth going early like LB (Willis and Polsuzny) of which one of them will be in the top 10 - most likely Willis.

* Ginn will drop in the 1st round along with Jarrett, and with the depth of WR's in this draft teams will take a WR later because they can. Same goes for Defensive end.

* Anthony Spencer the DE from Purdue will go much higher than expected

* Jamarcus Russell will be a decent QB in the NFL, but given the fact he has only had one decent year at LSU and his best game was against Notre Dame in the bowl game he is being overvalued by 8-10 spots right now. He has a cannon of an arm without question, but do did Jeff George coming out in 1990

* If Oakland was smart they would take Calvin Johnson with the #1 pick, and then take the best QB available in the 2nd (Stanton, Kolb, or Edwards), and then go with Doug Free from N. Illinois or Marten from BC at LT.

* Cleveland will take Peterson at #3 because he is the BPA and Crennel and his staff better win this year or they are gone. Usually RB's and DE's can have the most impact as rookies.

* Our best move would be to move down to around #12-14 and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd, and then use the extra pick along with the 2nd rounder for Welker to move up and get a late 1st rounder. With our middle 1st rounder we can go with the BPA - possibly Willis, Ginn, Kalil, Brown, Branch, Olsen, or Revis, and with our late 1st rounder we can go with either Rice, Jarrett, Blaylock, or Meachem.

* With our #40 we get our QB with either Kolb or Stanton, and with our #71 we go BPA (Beekman, Solai, Higgins, or Free.

Ultimately we need to come out of this draft with help at the QB spot, a game-breaker on offense, help on the o-line, and a good young DB.
I see alot of people including Boomer keep mentioning this guy Doug Free.. is he really that good??
 
i would like to see them trade down pick up a few extra pics and select d. bowe later in the 1st round...do u think Beck would fall to the 3rd?
 
Ultimately we need to come out of this draft with help at the QB spot, a game-breaker on offense, help on the o-line, and a good young DB.

Updated my mock just for you man. It solves the game breaker w/ Ginn . . . Free as an OT (been hearing his name alot on this site and other sites, guy has the skills), Merriweather as a young DB and Stanton as a QB . . . and gives us Zach Miller as a big time receiving threat in Cam's offense. Hell on Day 2, We need Houck and Capers to work their magic and get us some more OLine help and a hybrid player on Defense . . . maybe even take a look @ Michael Bush w/ our 4th rounder (if Ricky can't come back tho). We gotta get a punter . . . . but you can't go wrong with Ginn, Merriweather, Zach Miller, Stanton and Free on Day 1.
 
Look for positions with little depth going early like LB (Willis and Polsuzny) of which one of them will be in the top 10 - most likely Willis.

* Our best move would be to move down to around #12-14 and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd, and then use the extra pick along with the 2nd rounder for Welker to move up and get a late 1st rounder. With our middle 1st rounder we can go with the BPA - possibly Willis,

Quite the contradiction there.. On one hand you say Willis will go early in the top 10.. Then in another sentence you say it would be wise for Miami to trade down into the middle of the 1st round to take Willis..
 
Willis COULD go in the 1st 10 picks, but if he is still there at #13 we would be smart to take him.
 
Our best move would be to move down to around #12-14 and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd, and then use the extra pick along with the 2nd rounder for Welker to move up and get a late 1st rounder. With our middle 1st rounder we can go with the BPA - possibly Willis, Ginn, Kalil, Brown, Branch, Olsen, or Revis, and with our late 1st rounder we can go with either Rice, Jarrett, Blaylock, or Meachem.

For a rebuilding team we need as many picks as possible but trading down is strictly dreaming. Every team wants to trade down! NFL rookies are the most overpriced, overhyped rookies in pro sports. If it happens... great, but a waste of speculation. Only the most part desperate teams or really good teams that are one or two players away trade up. We fall into the desperate category.
 
It is harder than it looks to trade down. Dolphins tried to trade up last year and when that didn't go they tried to trade down. No takers. There may be a few extra trades this year because most teams have salary cap space, but I wouldn't count on the ability to trade up or down. It just doesn't happen that often
 
The Dolphins will draft Beck at QB before Stanton or Kolb.
He is the more intelligent decision maker of those 3 and has decent mobility.
 
Just to deal with the first point; The Dolphins aren't trading up, period. Mueller's mantra, quantity not quality, in other words we aren't giving up any of our 1st day picks.

As far as trading down, the Dolphins will trade down with whoever offers them the best deal, and they will trade down as far as necessary to get the best deal even if it means trading completely out of the 1st round. A good deal is a good deal and when the philosophy is quantity over quality don't be surprised by an unusual deal.
 
One other thing to add to my post. I think Miami would be smart to use one of the 6th or 7th round picks on the WR from Notre Dame - Jeff Smardjiza(sp). I realize he got a huge bonus from the Cubs to play baseball, but if that does not work out in 1-2 years having his rights cannot hurt. He is a 1st round talent that could come back to football if baseball does not work out, and the risk with a 6th-7th rounder is minimal.
 
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