I particularly appreciated when Philbin mentioned Passer Rating Differential, in fact it blew me away. I might have changed my vote pre-hire if I had heard Philbin emphasize that previously.
That's one of the great wiseguy categories, along with YPPA Differential, ones I became aware of and started tinkering with after Dick Vermeil wrote a column on the 10 most significant stats in pro football in the August 1987 issue of the old Inside Sports magazine. I was on a golfing vacation in Whistler, British Columbia at the time but after stumbling upon that issue in the Whistler Village I basically was on walkabout the remainder of the trip, hitting shots out of turn, and toward the wrong fairway without knowing it.
Then a year later when I was asked to be a regular guest analyst on the Stardust Line radio program I was very careful to give the audience the second tier stuff, like Points Per Pass Attempt and Plays Per Touchdown. You wanted to sound sharp but not blow your edge. Michael Roxborough, the chief linesmaker, was co-host of the show at that point. He'd literally write down something and say, "Thanks, Gary, I'll make sure you never make any money on that again."
Passing stats are fantastic when used in conjunction with situational factors, particularly early season before the relevant stats have settled toward reliability. I used to detail some of those trends on this site and elsewhere, like road non-division after Monday Night. Not every week is the same expectation from a scheduling standpoint but the media, for whatever reason, doesn't pick up on those trends. That's easily the biggest different when I'm talking sports in a Las Vegas sportsbook compared to when I'm in Miami or on a website. A guy in Las Vegas will sit down and enthusiastically detail a situational trend but elsewhere it's all Xs and Os.
I despise Roger Goodell because I can't be lazy anymore. The old research stood up to everything until that moron started to alter the game so significantly that the parameters no longer fit, like rushes per game, categories that have been a fantastic buffer to net passing.
Many posters here like ckparrothead understand the importance of yards per pass. No doubt it will be more in focus now that Philbin spotlighted it. In many ways I prefer the base YPPA Differential beyond Passer Rating Differential because interceptions can come in bunches and skew the passer rating stat. Green Bay's number only stood out this year if you included defensive interceptions. Otherwise they were very ordinary, not remotely close to the +2.3 YPPA Differential which led every playoff team last season. Pittsburgh was second, BTW. Sacks are more dependable to transfer to playoffs than interceptions so I have a separate category that uses that category but not interceptions. So far it's spit out a 5-2 vs. the number in the playoffs, losing on Pittsburgh vs. Denver and Saints vs. 49ers. I have a low rating on San Francisco in the top categories so if they win out I'm in trouble. Tomorrow I have Giants plus the points over 49ers and no play on Patriots/Ravens. In the Super Bowl it would be either AFC team vs. 49ers, Giants over Ravens, and no play on Giants/Patriots. Systems are fantastic because there's no subjectivity or second guessing, and other than morons like Roger Goodell they are supposed to last decades minus need for revision.
