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My Final Pre-Draft Mock

FinPhan54

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Going into draft week, there will only be more smoke and mirrors. I tried to compile one last mock draft on what I believe we are going to do next weekend, and then I am excited to sit back and enjoy the next week.

I hope you all enjoy this as much as me. One of my favorite things to do is talk draft, especially with you all - Here goes nothing. I used a simulator to take other picks.


Picks 1-4 of the mock draft were Burrow, Young, Simmons, Thomas


5. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama - To me, the best move is to sit at 5 and take either Tua or Herbert (in that order). I think we need our picks to maneuver in other spots (spoiler alert), however Tua will have an opportunity to sit and get stronger for a year behind Fitzpatrick. I'm interested to see whether they suit Tua up or if they find a reason to sneak him on the PUP and keep Rosen as a backup. If Rosen is okay with the potential of being a backup for the next few year, fine, if not cut him or trade him for a 6th/7th in 2094. Either way, the next few years lies in the hands of Tua. We have enough future picks to get out of this okay if he busts, but his upside is just too real and Grier sends a message to everyone that we are taking the next step as an organization.

**Dolphins trade 18, 56, 173, and a 2021 3rd round pick to the Jaguars for pick 9**

9. Jedrick Wills, RT, Alabama - With the capital we saved on not moving up to get Tua, I have a very strong feeling that we are going to make a play at one of the top 4 OL. To me Jedrick is the most well rounded prospect, and he fits in at Right tackle on what will eventually be Tua's blindside. He's also someone Tua will obviously feel comfortable with. Thomas and Wirfs went at 4 and 8, but even if not I don't think we need to play around and wait and see if someone falls to us, we can go get our guy. Grier said he sees 8-9 players that can be in the top 5 so I think we will try to walk away with 2 of those players.

26. Cesar Ruiz, iOL, Michigan - We have an opportunity to come out of Thursday night feeling very good about our OL. After the trade, we still have 9 picks left to fill the rest of our needs. We need guys on day 1 that can come in and play. Whether Ruiz plays Center with Karras at Guard or vice versa, I think going into Friday with an OL of Jesse Davis - Ereck Flowers - Cesar Ruiz - Ted Karras - Jedrick Wills makes me feel comfortable enough to not NEED to add someone else (maybe a swing tackle to upgrade Davenport).

**Dolphins trade 39 to the Chiefs for 63, 177 and a 2021 2nd round pick - Reminds me of last years trade, turn 1 high 2nd into 2 late 2nds, and continue to build for the future. This is possible especially after there was a huge safety run before we picked and the top 4 are off the board.**

63. JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State - The only other RB went at 53 (Taylor). In the trade down, we are hoping one of Taylor and Dobbins make it to us at 63. With our revamped offensive line, we all of a sudden have a nice looking young backfield in Dobbins/Howard. Again, Dobbins is the swap if Taylor goes earlier. Dobbins is explosive in every aspect out of the backfield, and will add a ton of excitement. I can also see us adding a pass catching back on a 1 year deal (Chris Thompson?)

70. Jeremy Chinn, S, Southern Illinois - Jeremy Chinn as a prospect reminds me a ton of former Pats Safety Patrick Chung. I see Chinn as a player that can play either safety spot, and will pair well with Eric Rowe in our backfield. This is great value after missing out on the top 4 earlier.

**Dolphins trade 141, 185, 246 to Seattle for 101 - I don't see us drafting 8 players after pick 141, especially with the UDFA success last year. I think we will target a player or 2 that we want in the mid rounds and go get him**

101. Lynn Bowden Jr, WR/OW, Kentucky - This is a weapon that our staff is going to see as a necessity to get on this roster, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went MUCH earlier than this. Seeing that he was there, and we didn't pick for 40 slots, I saw an opportunity to jump up and get our guy. Bowden will add an immediate burst of mystique to our offense as he has the ability to impact the game in a number of ways. I could see us running some Wildcat with him too (and David Lee back in the fold).

**Dolphins trade 151 to New Orleans for 169 and a 2021 4th round pick**

153. Tyree Phillips, OL, Mississippi State - Mammoth of a swing tackle with guard potential, Phillips is a guy who I could see our staff targeting as a potential Davenport replacement. We're familiar with the Mississippi State OL with Shaq Calhoun, and I think Phillips is much better than Calhoun and won't be asked to do too much too quickly.

169. Antoine Brooks, S, Maryland - Hard hitter, built like a brick wall. Our safety unit needs some more depth, and I see Brooks being able to learn quickly. OL, Safety and Running back are the 3 positions I see us possibly doubling up on in the draft.

177. Devin Asiasi, TE, UCLA - Tight End was a position I was eyeing through the middle round, but could never find great value. Asiasi has a ton of potential and with a year of NFL weight training could be a great #2 tight end behind Gesicki. This could also be an area where we add someone post draft.

227. Michael Turk, P, Arizona State - Dolphins family lineage is the main reason for this pick, and I think Matt Haack could definitely use some competition.

251. Alex Taylor, OL, South Carolina State - 6'8 former basketball player, I could see us being willing to take on this project. Drafting 4 OL may seem like a lot, but between Wills and Taylor we have a solid starter and a project at tackle, Ruiz will start on the interior on day 1 and Phillips will be able to learn 4 different spots.
 
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I am not sure i would be willing to pay that price to get all the way up to #9. I would be good with trading up not quite as high and just spending the #70 pick. You might not get Wills but I would be happy with any of the Top 4 OT. IF they love one of them then the deal you came up with seems fair to me.Not sure JAX is looking to trade down though, they have almost as many picks as Miami already.


Other than that minor quibble I like the Ruiz, Dobbins and Chinn picks quite a bit. I like Bowden but i don't know if he lasts that long. I have been moving up from the bottom of R4 with some of their 5ths for him in quite of few of the simulations. I like doubling up on the Safety spot as well.

Asiai is kind of a poor man's Gesicki.I would prefer a 2 way TE to pair with him, but this is a crappy TE Draft.We might have to wait until next year to look for one.

All in all I would walk away from the Draft with this group of players and another 2021 2nd rounder very happy.

Next FA period and Draft would be aimed at Pass Rusher and adding another top OL. With 5 picks in the 1st 64 and a decent amount of cap space they should be well on schedule to be a legit playoff team.

Well done.
 
I am not sure i would be willing to pay that price to get all the way up to #9. I would be good with trading up not quite as high and just spending the #70 pick. You might not get Wills but I would be happy with any of the Top 4 OT. IF they love one of them then the deal you came up with seems fair to me.Not sure JAX is looking to trade down though, they have almost as many picks as Miami already.


Other than that minor quibble I like the Ruiz, Dobbins and Chinn picks quite a bit. I like Bowden but i don't know if he lasts that long. I have been moving up from the bottom of R4 with some of their 5ths for him in quite of few of the simulations. I like doubling up on the Safety spot as well.

Asiai is kind of a poor man's Gesicki.I would prefer a 2 way TE to pair with him, but this is a crappy TE Draft.We might have to wait until next year to look for one.

All in all I would walk away from the Draft with this group of players and another 2021 2nd rounder very happy.

Next FA period and Draft would be aimed at Pass Rusher and adding another top OL. With 5 picks in the 1st 64 and a decent amount of cap space they should be well on schedule to be a legit playoff team.

Well done.

Really appreciate the feedback.

On the trade - I have actually been reading that Jax is looking to move down a bit and pick up 2021 picks. They're doing a lowkey tank for Trevor. I think we are going to make a move somewhere in the 7-10 range.
 
I don’t see chin available at pick 70 or Dobbins at 63
 
Sign me up for some of that. Don’t love giving up that second but that deal with KC makes some sense.
 
OK. Let's break this trade down. The premium for trading into the top 10 is a 50% mark up on the difference between the 2 first round picks being traded.
In this specific case, the difference the difference between 9 and 18 is 450 in draft capitol. The 50% mark up means we should be paying the Jags 675 worth of draft capitol
Pick 56 = 340 which means we still owe them 335.
Pick 173 = 21 which means we still owe them 314

RE: Next Years 3rd rounder
Pick 70 = 240 which means we still owe them 74 in draft capitol
Pick 110 = 74. which means this is our discount.
If we have a better year than last year, our discount grows, probably to the equivalent of a 3rd round pick.

So I can trade up and get Tua's college blindside protector to make his NFL transition that much easier and I get the trade done at a discount equaling the value of a late 3rd to early 4th round pick?
Where can I sign?
Do it quickly before the cops charge you with theft.
 
Now let's look at the picks you made.

5 --- I agree QB at 5. I like both Tua and Herbert so it doesn't matter to me. Although, just for fun, I did a 1st round mock where I took a tackle at 5 (Wirfs) and trade 18 and 56 to the Niners at 13 for Love.
9 --- I think my previous post shows how supportive I am of your trade.
26 --- I love Ruiz at 26 but don't think he will be available. The Vikings need guard help bad. They need 2 of them and ave 2 picks before 26, so I would be very surprised if Ruiz is there but would pick him if he was. Ordinarily, with Ruiz gone, I would take either Jackson or Jones, if one of them was available here and double up at tackle. However, in this mock you are trading pick 39. so I may decide to overdraft Swift, if he is available. I do like you trade with KC. My other consideration might be to trade down if all players with a 1st round only grade are taken as there are plenty of players with a late 1 - early 2 grade this year and we could afford to trade down and still fill a need.
63 --- Dobbins won't be there. I doubt that Taylor or Edwards - Helaire will be either. There are too many RB needy teams picking before 63. If we go RB here we could over draft Akers, Dillon or Moss. If we trade up from 18, we are probably missing out on 1st round pass rushers. Why not draft a guy like Greenard here, if he is available and Akers, Dillon or Moss at 70?
70 --- If Chinn is your #5 safety, then the top 5 safeties will be gone by 63. I like Chinn and other safeties and would draft one at 63, if available, but I don't think they will be. I usually draft Dillon here as I love his size for short yardage and goal line. Other possibilities for me are guard like Kindley, CB like Pride or TE like Trautman.

I agree with your assessment that there will be too many good football players taken between 70 and 141 and we need to get multiple pieces of that pie.
101 --- I like Bowden a lot and agree we could run some gadget plays with him. However, he will be gone by the end of the 80's. If we are taking a receiver here, Tyler Johnson or Duvernay might be available here. Other players in play for me here would be OT Driscoll from Auburn or G Stenberg from Kentucky, if available.
153 --- The guy I like here, might be long gone by this point, but if Antonio Gibson from Memphis is available here then he would be my pick. Some talking heads have this guy as a late 2 or early 3, but not me. Love the position versatility, but the fact that he hasn't mastered either WR or RB lowers his grade for me.
169 --- I like Brooks and the range is right so let's go with that.
177 --- Actually, I am really high on Alex Taylor from South Carolina State and take him here instead of 251 as he will be long gone by then. Hell, he may get picked by a team like Baltimore before pick 153.
227 --- If i haven't double dipped at RB earlier, backs like Michael Warren, James Robinson and Rico Dowdle appeal to me here.
251 --- I agree regarding punter competition. Mann, Charlton or Turk work for me.
 
Minnesota also needs WR and CB help, especially CB. They surely traded Diggs in part because they knew they could replace him in this strong WR draft.

They went IOL in Round 1 last year so I am not sure you do that back to back.

I think Minn goes WR/CB in some combo, the value should be there for them so it looks like a no brainer to me.They could have some combo platter of Jefferson/Reagor/Shenault/Mimms and Fulton/Gladney/Henderson.
 
Great job. Getting Wills and Ruiz is the key to the draft.
Dobbins and Chinn will never be there at those picks.
Rather have Moss over Akers if they need a RB.
 
Now let's look at the picks you made.

5 --- I agree QB at 5. I like both Tua and Herbert so it doesn't matter to me. Although, just for fun, I did a 1st round mock where I took a tackle at 5 (Wirfs) and trade 18 and 56 to the Niners at 13 for Love.
9 --- I think my previous post shows how supportive I am of your trade.
26 --- I love Ruiz at 26 but don't think he will be available. The Vikings need guard help bad. They need 2 of them and ave 2 picks before 26, so I would be very surprised if Ruiz is there but would pick him if he was. Ordinarily, with Ruiz gone, I would take either Jackson or Jones, if one of them was available here and double up at tackle. However, in this mock you are trading pick 39. so I may decide to overdraft Swift, if he is available. I do like you trade with KC. My other consideration might be to trade down if all players with a 1st round only grade are taken as there are plenty of players with a late 1 - early 2 grade this year and we could afford to trade down and still fill a need.
63 --- Dobbins won't be there. I doubt that Taylor or Edwards - Helaire will be either. There are too many RB needy teams picking before 63. If we go RB here we could over draft Akers, Dillon or Moss. If we trade up from 18, we are probably missing out on 1st round pass rushers. Why not draft a guy like Greenard here, if he is available and Akers, Dillon or Moss at 70?
70 --- If Chinn is your #5 safety, then the top 5 safeties will be gone by 63. I like Chinn and other safeties and would draft one at 63, if available, but I don't think they will be. I usually draft Dillon here as I love his size for short yardage and goal line. Other possibilities for me are guard like Kindley, CB like Pride or TE like Trautman.

I agree with your assessment that there will be too many good football players taken between 70 and 141 and we need to get multiple pieces of that pie.
101 --- I like Bowden a lot and agree we could run some gadget plays with him. However, he will be gone by the end of the 80's. If we are taking a receiver here, Tyler Johnson or Duvernay might be available here. Other players in play for me here would be OT Driscoll from Auburn or G Stenberg from Kentucky, if available.
153 --- The guy I like here, might be long gone by this point, but if Antonio Gibson from Memphis is available here then he would be my pick. Some talking heads have this guy as a late 2 or early 3, but not me. Love the position versatility, but the fact that he hasn't mastered either WR or RB lowers his grade for me.
169 --- I like Brooks and the range is right so let's go with that.
177 --- Actually, I am really high on Alex Taylor from South Carolina State and take him here instead of 251 as he will be long gone by then. Hell, he may get picked by a team like Baltimore before pick 153.
227 --- If i haven't double dipped at RB earlier, backs like Michael Warren, James Robinson and Rico Dowdle appeal to me here.
251 --- I agree regarding punter competition. Mann, Charlton or Turk work for me.

Love your feedback. I was Surprised myself that a guy like Ruiz, Dobbins and Chinn fell to me however I used a simulator so could only take the guys available for me.

As for the Minnesota comment, they took Becton with the 22nd pick and Fulton with the 25th pick.
 
5 Tua
18 Lamb/Ruggs
26 Isaiah Wilson
39 Jeremy Chinn
56 CEH
70 Tyler Biadsz
late rounders
Alex Taylor
AJ Dillon
Tae Crowder
Randy Moss’ kid
Benito Jones
 
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