ckparrothead
Premium Member
As things stand, our 2-4 record is good enough to net us somewhere between the #6 and the #10 pick in the draft. I know that some folks here have thankfully crunched the numbers, and figured out we pick #6 as of today, and thanks to then for that. I don't personally like to go through all of the tiebreakers when teams have still yet to go through their bye weeks, etc. but it's still nice to know. Picks 1-5 would be the Bengals, Lions, Seahawks, Chiefs and 49ers.
Then the Dolphins are stuck with the Rams, Raiders, Texans and Browns. Those teams mostly all have issues, any of them could use defense or offense. I think among them, only the Dolphins would probably be limited to a defensive pick.
Why do I feel the Dolphins are limited to a defensive pick? Because, they feel like they have their quarterback, running back and tight end positions nailed down pretty good. They obviously feel like they have their left tackle for now and ever (and for damn good reason). Vernon Carey is a question mark at RT but even if they let him go (which I doubt) then I doubt they will try and replace him with a first round pick. As for interior OL, where they have Justin Smiley, Donald Thomas, Ikechuku Ndukwe has proven to be a more than adequate backup, and they have some prospecting going on with Shawn Murphy and Andy Alleman. It has suddenly become popular to think Samson Satele is a goner, but I severely doubt it. That leaves WR, admittedly one of the biggest holes on the team. Unfortunately, Bill Parcells just will not stand for grabbing a WR that high in the draft. He won't do it. He destroyed office furniture when he found out that Bob Kraft was going to overrule him and take Bobby Grier's man, Terry Glenn, instead of one of the DEs that Tuna wanted. He values the WR position but I think he just doesn't value it enough. Plus, look at the prospects. Brian Maclin and Michael Crabtree are pretty good prospects, but they are sophomores! How ready does anyone think they'll be to make a huge impact as rookies? Juaquin Iglesias is good but not an elite level draft prospect. Darius Heyward-Bey is a track star playing WR, as Boomer has pointed out several times. They want a bigger receiver than Percy Harvin. Overall, the receiver position is a problem, as a whole. That means they're going to want to attack it just like they attack other entire positions that need help, and that means multiple picks. When they use a top pick I'm not sure they're doing it so much for a position, they're doing it for a player. I could see them using a 2nd and a 4th on WRs. But, I doubt the top 10 pick will be used on one. Just not seeing it.
So that leaves defense. Here are my top ten, as of mid-October, 2008...for the 2009 NFL Draft.
In no particular order,
1. NT Terrance Cody, Alabama
2. NT Sen'Derrick Marks, Auburn
3. DT Demarcus Granger, Oklahoma
4. LB Rey Maualuga, USC
5. LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
6. LB Brandon Spikes, Florida
7. DE Greg Hardy, Ole Miss
8. DE George Selvie, South Florida
9. DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech
10. CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
This is a good mix of players that I think should not be on the list and players that I think should be on the list, which is a tribute to the fact that this front office has not always done things exactly as I would have done them. They were high on Jake Long since god knows when, I didn't start warming up to him until the final month. They were high on Chad Henne, quite obviously, I didn't warm up to him until the final month. I try and think along the lines of what would I do, in areas where I think we share similar thought patterns, and what would they do.
I've been critical of the Terrance Cody hype in the past, mostly because I'm a bit jaded nowadays about humongous DTs that get overhyped yet don't do enough on the football field. I'm starting to thaw on Cody. I can't knock a guy specifically BECAUSE he is big. You can only knock the things that typically come with such humongous size, those things being lack of foot speed, hustle, active hands, stamina, etc. He's impressed enough in the games that he's played so far that I think those things may not be as much of a factor. Week after week, he not only gets noticed, but he's getting SEC DL of the Week awards and the like, and against Ole Miss, that Bama defense was clearly not the same after Cody went out with a sprained MCL. It impresses me that a guy like Nick Satan would use him at fullback, too...because I know Satan would not give a guy a second job if he thought he barely had the stamina to hold down his first job. Fact of the matter is, a 6'5" and 380 pound man that can execute a 360 degree dunk on a standard 10 foot basketball hoop is a god damn rarity. Watching him on the football field does remind me a bit of watching big Ted Washington. You can't help it, when you see a guy take on no less than three blockers (video here) and still make the play in the backfield, or when you see him execute a classic Glenn Dorsey by knocking a 300 pound OL flat onto his butt (video here). All I'm saying is, considering his massive girth, he shouldn't move like this. I think George Young taught Bill Parcells pretty well that the more of those guys you have in your locker room, the more likely you are to win. Will Cody come out? He's outright said no. Keep that in mind. Also keep in mind, we've heard that before. I think this knee injury has to scare him a bit. Should only keep him out a few weeks, but it happened in the trenches when a player got blocked into the back of his leg. It's a subtle reminder that he plays in a dangerous sport and at a dangerous size, and maybe he should take the draft standing while he has it, and not play another year, get hurt, and then never make a dime.
I think that, because of his short stature, Sen'Derrick Marks would be a NT for us. He's about 6'1" and 295-300 pounds, and this is probably the guy that will remind the front office most of Sedrick Ellis. He has 9 TFLs and 2 sacks in 7 games. He blocked a kick against Arkansas. He has 4 blocked kicks in his career. If Marks and Cody both come out of school, then there would be some valid question on which of the two is more likely to be higher on Miami's board.
I personally think that Demarcus Granger will come out, rise up the boards, and will be in the thick of things when it comes to our draft decision. He's 6'3" and 305 pounds, he makes plays in the backfield, he's strong and I think he has a lot of natural talent. He was an extremely high recruit coming out of high school, #1 DT in the country and #11 player overall. I don't think he's been a disappointment at Oklahoma at all. He had 8.5 TFLs a year ago and really impacted the games, and this year he was doing really well until he got gang raped by three Washington OLs as a hit job for a false start where Granger surged forward and knocked the OL backward onto his butt after the whistle was blown. He's got 2.5 TFLs in about 4.5 games, and he's having an impact despite the foot injury that caused him to miss 2 games. Incidentally, here is a nice one-play of Granger knifing in against TAMU and body slamming the 275 pound Javorskie Lane. What I'm pretty sure Demarcus Granger has, is some serious speed and power. He can outrun OLs on stretch plays, make the play in the backfield. Should be interesting to watch how the rest of the year goes for him.
I reluctantly placed Rey Maualuga on my list. Bottom line here is he's a 260 pound battering ram that can and regularly does reverse the momentum of the ball carrier to where they don't get yards after contact. He also has the speed and burst to get to the outside of the field when the play starts to get stretched. He can close. As we saw against the Ravens, that might be an issue for us, as Willis McGahee regularly began to stretch plays to the outside and extend plays against our ILBs Crowder and Ayodele. He can blitz and blowup blockers in the backfield, which is something we've asked Crowder to do more this year. I think what jumps out at you about a Maualuga is not his ability to read and diagnose a play but rather the closing speed, power, and ability to rush the passer. As ridiculous as it might sound when you consider the athletes on USC's defense, when the QB breaks the pocket to the outside, Maualuga just seems to be moving at a different speed from everyone else in chase. He can catch the ball. That's kind of good, you know, considering practically nobody in our secondary can do that. He gets a ball thrown at his testicles by a falling quarterback quickly and unexpectedly, and he catches it. He reads the QB's eyes and goes right at a good run to block the passing lane, the QB throws it to him, he catches it. Kind of nice. Overall, just because I don't think a guy is going to make every read, every play, like a Zach Thomas would...doesn't mean he wouldn't be pretty valuable. When I look for a guy that I can imagine making plays on Sundays that get into the highlight reels, juice up a defense and the home crowd, demoralize an offense, etc...I see Rey Maualuga's ability to close on the football in the open field, and then punish the target...and that's a guy I can see doing those things for your football team.
A guy I didn't put on the list is Brian Cushing. The problem for me is, I can't figure out what to do with him on this defense. I can figure out what to do with a Rey Maualuga on this defense. Absolutely. I can see the role, I can even already see what plays he'll make and which ones he won't. I have trouble seeing where Brian Cushing stands on this defense. Do you put him at Joey Porter's spot, rushing the passer constantly, putting his hand down on the ground in certain situations, going up LTs? Not sure I see that. Matt Roth's spot? Will he set the edge with such good power and hands against the run, run over backs and tight ends in the backfield once he gets a good head of steam? Not sure I see that, either. Channing Crowder's spot is designed to be a bigger play spot in this defense I think, more blitzing, more going into the backfield, making open field plays, I think that spot is more tailored for a Rey Maualuga. So then there's Akin Ayodele's spot and I could sort of see Cushing in that role, coverage, making plays on the screen, filling against the run...but do I see him being a star from that role? Not sure I do. In the end I think Cushing is a marvelously big guy with incredible lateral movement ability for his size, really good in coverage and he can give chase on the quarterback, working his way into the backfield. But maybe that's good enough to go to the pros and be what he already is, which is a strong side linebacker in Tony Dungy's type of defense. You also have to be uncomfortable with the fact that he's constantly nicked up. He's a good player to have no matter what but I'm not sure he's the impact performer you want in the top half of the first round. I think at that spot you do want a guy that can be a difference-maker, a guy that can make the big plays that fire up your defense and demoralize an offense, get on the highlight reels, etc.
Aaron Curry is on my list. He's not going to be an OLB in this defense. When you get that out of the way, he might be a pretty good football player. He's got versatility, and that's pretty important to the current coaching staff. He can also, evidently, powerclean 374 pounds. The Parcells guys are pretty big on that one, I think. I don't know that there's a linebacker position on the defense that he couldn't play. He has great open field tackling ability. He makes all kinds of plays in coverage, whether that be his burst to the ball as it's being caught or just the 5 interceptions he's had the last 19 games (not to mention the 248 yards and 3 TDs he's returned those interceptions). This is definitely a guy that has a knack for making big plays. I don't think he has Rey Maualuga's power or vicious burst to the football, but he's probably the smarter football player and he makes more plays in coverage, PLUS he's competent when it comes to putting his hand on the ground and rushing the passer. I think he could be an important cog for the defense. But, would he be a star? That's the question I have about him. You could put him at Ayodele's spot on the defense and I'm willing to bet he'd play it extremely well. And, if anyone got hurt, and you had someone else that could occupy his spot, you could move him to any of the other 3 LB spots. I wonder how fast he is on the track. We'll have to see. I know he's strong, and our guys will like that about him. The question of Rey Maualuga or Aaron Curry would have to be a tough one. For now I think I'd lean toward Curry because I like the smarter football player but they could both be stars and I'd love to line them both up next to each other.
I can't help but put Brandon Spikes on my list even though there are some problems that he needs to fix up. Rey Maualuga and Aaron Curry have the advantage over him of the fact that they are seniors. What impresses me most about Spikes is his pass rushing ability. He can put his hand on the ground and pass rush like a Joey Porter. He's a big guy, big enough to play LB in the Miami system, and the key is I think he is still developing and learning. He could end up better than Aaron Curry. His problem is that he doesn't have the size to take on 260 pound fullbacks, but he's very confident in himself so he takes them head on without great hand or helmet placement, and he'll get knocked out of a hole. You might just want to put him in as a weak side backer in a 4-3, I guess. Personally I could even see him being a weak side OLB in a 3-4. Now that I've looked at them all some more, I'm not sure I'd take Spikes above Curry or Maualuga. Not yet, anyway. If Spikes stays in school he could look like a different player next year. He's already damn good right now.
I believe that Greg Hardy is a premium, premium talent, and an outside linebacker in Miami's scheme. I believe he is one of those Demarcus Ware types that can do whatever he wants to do. What do I mean? Watch him catch a touchdown as a WR in this highlight. When looking for a conversion player, our coaches love to see stuff like that, him playing WR and playing it well. They also love to see a kid that played basketball really well, and Greg Hardy was all-state as a junior in Tennessee. One thing that Hardy can do well is take advantage of people trying to block him in the backfield by either running by them or steam rolling them. I can see him playing Matt Roth's position immediately, serving as a DE in 4-man fronts, and eventually moving over to replace Joey Porter. He's only 20 years old. Only 20. This could be the premier defensive player in the 2009 NFL Draft...could be, if one of the other guys I named doesn't take that honor. To me, he blows Brian Orakpo away. So, what's the catch? The catch is he's only 20 years old and sometimes he acts like it. When he was 19, he was suspended by Ed Orgeron for violation of team rules, which amounted to him missing classes and missing team meetings and workouts. He apologized publicly without mincing words about his mistakes, said he's got some growing up to do. Well, I don't think he grew up quite enough in a year because this year he was yanked from the lineup in the South Carolina game for lack of effort...only a week after being so dominant in the Ole Miss upset against Florida that he got on the cover of Sports Illustrated. When you consider though his inability to play much or really well against Alabama the following week (he still got a sack)...I and anyone else could see his foot was really bothering him in that Bama game. I wonder if his "lack of effort" against South Carolina had more to do with the foot than anything else.
I have been watching George Selvie for ages and I know what he can do. He is a high motor guy with the burst to make plays all over the backfield. People were ticked at him because for the first two games of the year against Tennessee-Martin and UCF he did not get after the quarterback. No doubt he started off slow. He wasn't use to the kind of automatic double-teaming that he was seeing on every play. He started to get things together a little bit in the Kansas game, where he finally split one of those doubles perfectly to get a sack, and he used his high motor and ability to follow the quarterback's eyes, and disengage blockers to knock down three passes. He followed up with 2 TFLs, including a sack, against FIU, but then he took a very unfortunate and dreaded high ankle sprain in the second half. That derailed him some more, he didn't even play against NC State, and he played only sparingly against Pitt in that loss (no wonder they lost, playing for the most part without their best player). He came back and played a lot more against Syracuse and he got 2 assisted sacks. For as big of a fan of him as I am, he is not quite a Greg Hardy, IMO. He does not have Hardy's natural talent, ability to move, or size/wingspan. I don't think he is a physically intimidating player, where I think Greg Hardy can be one. I keep wanting to put Selvie at DE rather than LB. Handling constant double teams has not been something that he has been particularly good at this year, but it is something I would think that he can improve upon throughout his career. It would be some years before a draft DE, even a high draft pick, would have that Julius Peppers/Jason Taylor type reputation as a guy you have to chip at every play...and by that time, I would be willing to bet George Selvie has learned a trick or two and gotten stronger and perhaps bigger. I see him as more of a disruptive player than anything else. I'm not sure yet I see him exerting so much physical force on the ball carrier that I like him playing LB where he would need to aggressively pursue in the open field and not just redirect and chase. But, the reality is that he probably could play weak side OLB in this scheme. He's got great burst off the edge, great motor, and in our D we do have Joey Porter putting his hand on the ground pretty often when we get into a 4-man front, and I can definitely see Selvie doing that and being a disruptive force. I think he'd be a better fit for a defense that relies on its DLs to be disruptive in the backfield, and then have its linebackers and safeties swarm and clean up. He will affect the quarterback at the next level. One key for him is his work ethic and attitude, and this is where he has Greg Hardy hands down, which will probably give the Miami front office people headaches. Selvie is without a doubt one of the hardest working DEs that I've followed at the college level. He has won team awards for his work. He has a military background. I've seen some digs on him about his weight and how his having to work hard in order to keep 250 pounds on his frame isn't a good sign, but I think rather the thing to note is how a 21 year old kid is already so responsible that he is winning strength and conditioning awards, and adapting his entire life and eating patterns in order to accomplish what he wants to accomplish. A lot of players, you'd like to think they'll grow up...but sometimes it isn't about growing up, it's just whether they have the personality to make sacrifices or they don't. George Selvie has that pro mentality, which Sparano, Henning, Ireland & Co. have talked about, where it concerns Jake Long. The "makeup" they call it. As for my concerns with him stepping out to a LB position, well if Terrell Suggs can do it, I think Selvie can too. I also think Selvie, with the potential granted to him by his work ethic, can get up to 260 pounds in Miami's system.
Here at the 9 spot, I had the choice of whether to put in Brian Orakpo or Michael Johnson. In the end, I chose Johnson. I think he's much more likely a target than Orakpo, because Orakpo is not physically intimidating enough (on the field Selvie and Orakpo look very similarly built) while not quite being as disruptive as Selvie has proven to be over the years. Even while doubled, Selvie's still affecting the plays a lot. Orakpo's not being doubled and he recently made a name for himself by victimizing a guy in Phil Loadholt that I do not consider worthy of left tackle consideration at the NFL level. Do I have issues with Johnson's history as a part-time player? Absolutely. But, I've also seen him dominate (as we all have), and I've also seen him play like a high energy player that feels the moment and plays like a star. Has his body been betraying him this entire time? He's been notorious for cramping during games, and it's one of the reasons he's always been a part time player. Emmitt Smith gave a tip to Dallas Cowboy Tashard Choice to drink two bottles of pedialyte before and during games, and Choice passed that tip along to former teammate Michael Johnson, who struggled to stay cramp free (yet again) during the Jacksonville State game...and now over the last 6 games, Johnson has outproduced what he did in the previous 14 games...by nearly every measure. Is it that simple? Probably not, but it might be significant all the same. I have a feeling this is what Randy Mueller would call an ascending player. It has become fun for folks like me to pick on the kid relentlessly, but I have a feeling that he's slowly starting to turn it around and maybe live up to some of that hype. Watch the BC highlights here. This is the first game since Choice gave him his new cramp remedy. He's setting the edge in the run against LT Costonzo? He's whipping him in pass rush and disrupting the quarterback? He's dropping back in coverage and playing absolute HELL with his "stretch" frame, tipping up that pass that was subsequently intercepted. You know Bill Parcells loves that like he likes deep fried peanut butter and marshmallow sandwiches. He's getting low in his tackling, so that runners can't use the "stretch" frame against him to get extra yards after contact? And then there's that speed around the edge we've always known about. And what about this game? Check out 26 seconds in, look at him bull rush Virginia Tech's right tackle straight into the ball carrier? What in blazes is that about? Watch him run right by a double team like they don't matter, and follow up by setting the edge and making a two-gap play on a ball carrier at or near the LOS. That was his second game with his cramp remedy. His third game, Mississippi State (KB21's team), he blocked a chip shot field goal (I really recommend watching that video, look how HIGH he jumps to block that thing), had a sack on fourth down, recovered a fumble, and deflected 2 passes. What's screwing me up about Johnson this year is watching him set the edge against tackles on run plays, use his hands, disengage and make the play on the ball carrier. That shows me something that I didn't know he could really do very well. Bottom line, we might be coming full circle on this kid. We all laughed when draft "experts" put him up at the top of the boards pre-season on his potential alone. Who will be laughing by the end of the season? I'm not laughing anymore. Not with how I've seen him play this year, now that he's not cramping up and he's free to play full time (or something close to it).
I thought I ought to include a CB in this list, the one I think would actually get considered, and that is Malcolm Jenkins. I have reservations about even putting a CB here, as I don't believe Parcells will sign off on it. But, at the same time, Parcells is not the GM, Jeff Ireland is, and Parcells will tend to defer to Ireland, while at the same time trying to influence Jeff's thoughts. The thing about this is, I'm pretty sure that Jeff was with the Dallas scouts and personnel people on the Terrance Newman deal. When Jerry Jones and the Dallas personnel director at the time took Bill Parcells to dinner, and broke it to him that they wanted to go with Terrance Newman instead of Bill's pick, Kevin Williams...I wonder if Jeff Ireland was among the folks that cajoled Parcells into not throwing a hissy fit like he did with the Terry Glenn episode? Ireland became known in Dallas for his ability to work with Parcells, and Parcells came to respect Ireland's take on things...before Ireland took over the head personnel job in 2005. So, that is the wildcard, here...if Jeff Ireland really sinks his teeth into a certain CB, whether that be Vontae Davis or Malcolm Jenkins, would Parcells flat overrule him? I'm not quite positive, with the way Parcells mandated a deadline for them to sign Jake Long before they begin negotiations with Chris Long, that Parcells was one hundred percent convinced that Jake Long was the one and only one to get at the one spot. I think Jeff Ireland believed Jake was the one and only. I think Tony Sparano thought so as well. In fact, Ireland alluded to the fact that he had long considered Jake to be the top of that class since he was in Dallas (without Parcells there, I might add). So if it's true that Parcells wanted Chris Long and Ireland wanted Jake Long, obviously Tuna deferred to Ireland to a certain degree. If that happens again, and Ireland really has it in him that he wants a CB...will Parcells, once again, defer to a certain degree? Malcolm Jenkins catches the ball, bats down passes, blocks kicks, is a great blitzer, an all-around good football player. Nobody throws on the man. He's got ideal size at 6'0" and 200 (any bigger and that can come with problems). I guess some have entertained the idea of moving him to safety but I believe he's a potential shutdown corner, I don't see a problem here.
And the pick is... DE/OLB Greg Hardy, Ole Miss
As I said, Greg Hardy has the pure ability to be the premier defensive player in the draft. His experience as a WR, his basketball experience both in High School (where he was All-State) and in college (I believe he played for the Rebs' basketball team), they both lend very nicely toward his ability to make the transition to a space position such as the one Matt Roth currently occupies. He also has the size at 265 pounds to hold his own versus the run, seal the edge of a defense, and overpower backs and tight ends that try and play him in the backfield. They're going to look for on-your-feet athleticism, and a guy that has played WR and basketball extensively has that. I've also seen some athletic plays from him that really make your eyes pop out. There's one that stands out in my memory in particulary where someone went low on him as he spun to his left, he ended up on the ground but popped back up with such speed and forced that he launched right into the quarterback and I swear that even though he went to the ground, he lost no speed in his progress toward the quarterback. Hey what do you know, I found it. Right here. Check out at the 1:10 mark. That's an eye-popper.
Attitude and work ethic may be a problem, you won't know until you do a lot of digging and conduct a lot of interviews. But, we've seen some signs of how well he's thought of by the coaching staff, that he's in the process of maturing, and that he's a good influence on younger recruits as he's hosted several blue chippers at Oxford, according to Boomer.
I think they will see in him a lot of the reasons they drafted Demarcus Ware back in Dallas. Miami could use a significant pass rush presence aside from Joey Porter. I'm not too high on Joey Porter being the guy to lay his hand on the ground in 4-man rush situations, either. I think if you add Greg Hardy to that mix you immediately improve the 4-man rush in obvious passing situations, and during 3-4 downs I can see Hardy being a competent strong side linebacker with real pass rush presence and athleticism for dropping back.
Terrance Cody would be a good prospect to draft at this spot, and I think my number one choice might even be Michael Johnson if he continues to play the way he's been playing at times this year...but for now, I think that Michael Johnson will rocket up after the Combine and maybe get out of our reach a little bit. Meanwhile, Cody is only in his first year playing for Bama and he has already said he'll return in 2009...so until he says different it's hard for me to sit here and state the Dolphins WILL draft Terrance Cody. Greg Hardy's my guy, for now.
Then the Dolphins are stuck with the Rams, Raiders, Texans and Browns. Those teams mostly all have issues, any of them could use defense or offense. I think among them, only the Dolphins would probably be limited to a defensive pick.
Why do I feel the Dolphins are limited to a defensive pick? Because, they feel like they have their quarterback, running back and tight end positions nailed down pretty good. They obviously feel like they have their left tackle for now and ever (and for damn good reason). Vernon Carey is a question mark at RT but even if they let him go (which I doubt) then I doubt they will try and replace him with a first round pick. As for interior OL, where they have Justin Smiley, Donald Thomas, Ikechuku Ndukwe has proven to be a more than adequate backup, and they have some prospecting going on with Shawn Murphy and Andy Alleman. It has suddenly become popular to think Samson Satele is a goner, but I severely doubt it. That leaves WR, admittedly one of the biggest holes on the team. Unfortunately, Bill Parcells just will not stand for grabbing a WR that high in the draft. He won't do it. He destroyed office furniture when he found out that Bob Kraft was going to overrule him and take Bobby Grier's man, Terry Glenn, instead of one of the DEs that Tuna wanted. He values the WR position but I think he just doesn't value it enough. Plus, look at the prospects. Brian Maclin and Michael Crabtree are pretty good prospects, but they are sophomores! How ready does anyone think they'll be to make a huge impact as rookies? Juaquin Iglesias is good but not an elite level draft prospect. Darius Heyward-Bey is a track star playing WR, as Boomer has pointed out several times. They want a bigger receiver than Percy Harvin. Overall, the receiver position is a problem, as a whole. That means they're going to want to attack it just like they attack other entire positions that need help, and that means multiple picks. When they use a top pick I'm not sure they're doing it so much for a position, they're doing it for a player. I could see them using a 2nd and a 4th on WRs. But, I doubt the top 10 pick will be used on one. Just not seeing it.
So that leaves defense. Here are my top ten, as of mid-October, 2008...for the 2009 NFL Draft.
In no particular order,
1. NT Terrance Cody, Alabama
2. NT Sen'Derrick Marks, Auburn
3. DT Demarcus Granger, Oklahoma
4. LB Rey Maualuga, USC
5. LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
6. LB Brandon Spikes, Florida
7. DE Greg Hardy, Ole Miss
8. DE George Selvie, South Florida
9. DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech
10. CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
This is a good mix of players that I think should not be on the list and players that I think should be on the list, which is a tribute to the fact that this front office has not always done things exactly as I would have done them. They were high on Jake Long since god knows when, I didn't start warming up to him until the final month. They were high on Chad Henne, quite obviously, I didn't warm up to him until the final month. I try and think along the lines of what would I do, in areas where I think we share similar thought patterns, and what would they do.
I've been critical of the Terrance Cody hype in the past, mostly because I'm a bit jaded nowadays about humongous DTs that get overhyped yet don't do enough on the football field. I'm starting to thaw on Cody. I can't knock a guy specifically BECAUSE he is big. You can only knock the things that typically come with such humongous size, those things being lack of foot speed, hustle, active hands, stamina, etc. He's impressed enough in the games that he's played so far that I think those things may not be as much of a factor. Week after week, he not only gets noticed, but he's getting SEC DL of the Week awards and the like, and against Ole Miss, that Bama defense was clearly not the same after Cody went out with a sprained MCL. It impresses me that a guy like Nick Satan would use him at fullback, too...because I know Satan would not give a guy a second job if he thought he barely had the stamina to hold down his first job. Fact of the matter is, a 6'5" and 380 pound man that can execute a 360 degree dunk on a standard 10 foot basketball hoop is a god damn rarity. Watching him on the football field does remind me a bit of watching big Ted Washington. You can't help it, when you see a guy take on no less than three blockers (video here) and still make the play in the backfield, or when you see him execute a classic Glenn Dorsey by knocking a 300 pound OL flat onto his butt (video here). All I'm saying is, considering his massive girth, he shouldn't move like this. I think George Young taught Bill Parcells pretty well that the more of those guys you have in your locker room, the more likely you are to win. Will Cody come out? He's outright said no. Keep that in mind. Also keep in mind, we've heard that before. I think this knee injury has to scare him a bit. Should only keep him out a few weeks, but it happened in the trenches when a player got blocked into the back of his leg. It's a subtle reminder that he plays in a dangerous sport and at a dangerous size, and maybe he should take the draft standing while he has it, and not play another year, get hurt, and then never make a dime.
I think that, because of his short stature, Sen'Derrick Marks would be a NT for us. He's about 6'1" and 295-300 pounds, and this is probably the guy that will remind the front office most of Sedrick Ellis. He has 9 TFLs and 2 sacks in 7 games. He blocked a kick against Arkansas. He has 4 blocked kicks in his career. If Marks and Cody both come out of school, then there would be some valid question on which of the two is more likely to be higher on Miami's board.
I personally think that Demarcus Granger will come out, rise up the boards, and will be in the thick of things when it comes to our draft decision. He's 6'3" and 305 pounds, he makes plays in the backfield, he's strong and I think he has a lot of natural talent. He was an extremely high recruit coming out of high school, #1 DT in the country and #11 player overall. I don't think he's been a disappointment at Oklahoma at all. He had 8.5 TFLs a year ago and really impacted the games, and this year he was doing really well until he got gang raped by three Washington OLs as a hit job for a false start where Granger surged forward and knocked the OL backward onto his butt after the whistle was blown. He's got 2.5 TFLs in about 4.5 games, and he's having an impact despite the foot injury that caused him to miss 2 games. Incidentally, here is a nice one-play of Granger knifing in against TAMU and body slamming the 275 pound Javorskie Lane. What I'm pretty sure Demarcus Granger has, is some serious speed and power. He can outrun OLs on stretch plays, make the play in the backfield. Should be interesting to watch how the rest of the year goes for him.
I reluctantly placed Rey Maualuga on my list. Bottom line here is he's a 260 pound battering ram that can and regularly does reverse the momentum of the ball carrier to where they don't get yards after contact. He also has the speed and burst to get to the outside of the field when the play starts to get stretched. He can close. As we saw against the Ravens, that might be an issue for us, as Willis McGahee regularly began to stretch plays to the outside and extend plays against our ILBs Crowder and Ayodele. He can blitz and blowup blockers in the backfield, which is something we've asked Crowder to do more this year. I think what jumps out at you about a Maualuga is not his ability to read and diagnose a play but rather the closing speed, power, and ability to rush the passer. As ridiculous as it might sound when you consider the athletes on USC's defense, when the QB breaks the pocket to the outside, Maualuga just seems to be moving at a different speed from everyone else in chase. He can catch the ball. That's kind of good, you know, considering practically nobody in our secondary can do that. He gets a ball thrown at his testicles by a falling quarterback quickly and unexpectedly, and he catches it. He reads the QB's eyes and goes right at a good run to block the passing lane, the QB throws it to him, he catches it. Kind of nice. Overall, just because I don't think a guy is going to make every read, every play, like a Zach Thomas would...doesn't mean he wouldn't be pretty valuable. When I look for a guy that I can imagine making plays on Sundays that get into the highlight reels, juice up a defense and the home crowd, demoralize an offense, etc...I see Rey Maualuga's ability to close on the football in the open field, and then punish the target...and that's a guy I can see doing those things for your football team.
A guy I didn't put on the list is Brian Cushing. The problem for me is, I can't figure out what to do with him on this defense. I can figure out what to do with a Rey Maualuga on this defense. Absolutely. I can see the role, I can even already see what plays he'll make and which ones he won't. I have trouble seeing where Brian Cushing stands on this defense. Do you put him at Joey Porter's spot, rushing the passer constantly, putting his hand down on the ground in certain situations, going up LTs? Not sure I see that. Matt Roth's spot? Will he set the edge with such good power and hands against the run, run over backs and tight ends in the backfield once he gets a good head of steam? Not sure I see that, either. Channing Crowder's spot is designed to be a bigger play spot in this defense I think, more blitzing, more going into the backfield, making open field plays, I think that spot is more tailored for a Rey Maualuga. So then there's Akin Ayodele's spot and I could sort of see Cushing in that role, coverage, making plays on the screen, filling against the run...but do I see him being a star from that role? Not sure I do. In the end I think Cushing is a marvelously big guy with incredible lateral movement ability for his size, really good in coverage and he can give chase on the quarterback, working his way into the backfield. But maybe that's good enough to go to the pros and be what he already is, which is a strong side linebacker in Tony Dungy's type of defense. You also have to be uncomfortable with the fact that he's constantly nicked up. He's a good player to have no matter what but I'm not sure he's the impact performer you want in the top half of the first round. I think at that spot you do want a guy that can be a difference-maker, a guy that can make the big plays that fire up your defense and demoralize an offense, get on the highlight reels, etc.
Aaron Curry is on my list. He's not going to be an OLB in this defense. When you get that out of the way, he might be a pretty good football player. He's got versatility, and that's pretty important to the current coaching staff. He can also, evidently, powerclean 374 pounds. The Parcells guys are pretty big on that one, I think. I don't know that there's a linebacker position on the defense that he couldn't play. He has great open field tackling ability. He makes all kinds of plays in coverage, whether that be his burst to the ball as it's being caught or just the 5 interceptions he's had the last 19 games (not to mention the 248 yards and 3 TDs he's returned those interceptions). This is definitely a guy that has a knack for making big plays. I don't think he has Rey Maualuga's power or vicious burst to the football, but he's probably the smarter football player and he makes more plays in coverage, PLUS he's competent when it comes to putting his hand on the ground and rushing the passer. I think he could be an important cog for the defense. But, would he be a star? That's the question I have about him. You could put him at Ayodele's spot on the defense and I'm willing to bet he'd play it extremely well. And, if anyone got hurt, and you had someone else that could occupy his spot, you could move him to any of the other 3 LB spots. I wonder how fast he is on the track. We'll have to see. I know he's strong, and our guys will like that about him. The question of Rey Maualuga or Aaron Curry would have to be a tough one. For now I think I'd lean toward Curry because I like the smarter football player but they could both be stars and I'd love to line them both up next to each other.
I can't help but put Brandon Spikes on my list even though there are some problems that he needs to fix up. Rey Maualuga and Aaron Curry have the advantage over him of the fact that they are seniors. What impresses me most about Spikes is his pass rushing ability. He can put his hand on the ground and pass rush like a Joey Porter. He's a big guy, big enough to play LB in the Miami system, and the key is I think he is still developing and learning. He could end up better than Aaron Curry. His problem is that he doesn't have the size to take on 260 pound fullbacks, but he's very confident in himself so he takes them head on without great hand or helmet placement, and he'll get knocked out of a hole. You might just want to put him in as a weak side backer in a 4-3, I guess. Personally I could even see him being a weak side OLB in a 3-4. Now that I've looked at them all some more, I'm not sure I'd take Spikes above Curry or Maualuga. Not yet, anyway. If Spikes stays in school he could look like a different player next year. He's already damn good right now.
I believe that Greg Hardy is a premium, premium talent, and an outside linebacker in Miami's scheme. I believe he is one of those Demarcus Ware types that can do whatever he wants to do. What do I mean? Watch him catch a touchdown as a WR in this highlight. When looking for a conversion player, our coaches love to see stuff like that, him playing WR and playing it well. They also love to see a kid that played basketball really well, and Greg Hardy was all-state as a junior in Tennessee. One thing that Hardy can do well is take advantage of people trying to block him in the backfield by either running by them or steam rolling them. I can see him playing Matt Roth's position immediately, serving as a DE in 4-man fronts, and eventually moving over to replace Joey Porter. He's only 20 years old. Only 20. This could be the premier defensive player in the 2009 NFL Draft...could be, if one of the other guys I named doesn't take that honor. To me, he blows Brian Orakpo away. So, what's the catch? The catch is he's only 20 years old and sometimes he acts like it. When he was 19, he was suspended by Ed Orgeron for violation of team rules, which amounted to him missing classes and missing team meetings and workouts. He apologized publicly without mincing words about his mistakes, said he's got some growing up to do. Well, I don't think he grew up quite enough in a year because this year he was yanked from the lineup in the South Carolina game for lack of effort...only a week after being so dominant in the Ole Miss upset against Florida that he got on the cover of Sports Illustrated. When you consider though his inability to play much or really well against Alabama the following week (he still got a sack)...I and anyone else could see his foot was really bothering him in that Bama game. I wonder if his "lack of effort" against South Carolina had more to do with the foot than anything else.
I have been watching George Selvie for ages and I know what he can do. He is a high motor guy with the burst to make plays all over the backfield. People were ticked at him because for the first two games of the year against Tennessee-Martin and UCF he did not get after the quarterback. No doubt he started off slow. He wasn't use to the kind of automatic double-teaming that he was seeing on every play. He started to get things together a little bit in the Kansas game, where he finally split one of those doubles perfectly to get a sack, and he used his high motor and ability to follow the quarterback's eyes, and disengage blockers to knock down three passes. He followed up with 2 TFLs, including a sack, against FIU, but then he took a very unfortunate and dreaded high ankle sprain in the second half. That derailed him some more, he didn't even play against NC State, and he played only sparingly against Pitt in that loss (no wonder they lost, playing for the most part without their best player). He came back and played a lot more against Syracuse and he got 2 assisted sacks. For as big of a fan of him as I am, he is not quite a Greg Hardy, IMO. He does not have Hardy's natural talent, ability to move, or size/wingspan. I don't think he is a physically intimidating player, where I think Greg Hardy can be one. I keep wanting to put Selvie at DE rather than LB. Handling constant double teams has not been something that he has been particularly good at this year, but it is something I would think that he can improve upon throughout his career. It would be some years before a draft DE, even a high draft pick, would have that Julius Peppers/Jason Taylor type reputation as a guy you have to chip at every play...and by that time, I would be willing to bet George Selvie has learned a trick or two and gotten stronger and perhaps bigger. I see him as more of a disruptive player than anything else. I'm not sure yet I see him exerting so much physical force on the ball carrier that I like him playing LB where he would need to aggressively pursue in the open field and not just redirect and chase. But, the reality is that he probably could play weak side OLB in this scheme. He's got great burst off the edge, great motor, and in our D we do have Joey Porter putting his hand on the ground pretty often when we get into a 4-man front, and I can definitely see Selvie doing that and being a disruptive force. I think he'd be a better fit for a defense that relies on its DLs to be disruptive in the backfield, and then have its linebackers and safeties swarm and clean up. He will affect the quarterback at the next level. One key for him is his work ethic and attitude, and this is where he has Greg Hardy hands down, which will probably give the Miami front office people headaches. Selvie is without a doubt one of the hardest working DEs that I've followed at the college level. He has won team awards for his work. He has a military background. I've seen some digs on him about his weight and how his having to work hard in order to keep 250 pounds on his frame isn't a good sign, but I think rather the thing to note is how a 21 year old kid is already so responsible that he is winning strength and conditioning awards, and adapting his entire life and eating patterns in order to accomplish what he wants to accomplish. A lot of players, you'd like to think they'll grow up...but sometimes it isn't about growing up, it's just whether they have the personality to make sacrifices or they don't. George Selvie has that pro mentality, which Sparano, Henning, Ireland & Co. have talked about, where it concerns Jake Long. The "makeup" they call it. As for my concerns with him stepping out to a LB position, well if Terrell Suggs can do it, I think Selvie can too. I also think Selvie, with the potential granted to him by his work ethic, can get up to 260 pounds in Miami's system.
Here at the 9 spot, I had the choice of whether to put in Brian Orakpo or Michael Johnson. In the end, I chose Johnson. I think he's much more likely a target than Orakpo, because Orakpo is not physically intimidating enough (on the field Selvie and Orakpo look very similarly built) while not quite being as disruptive as Selvie has proven to be over the years. Even while doubled, Selvie's still affecting the plays a lot. Orakpo's not being doubled and he recently made a name for himself by victimizing a guy in Phil Loadholt that I do not consider worthy of left tackle consideration at the NFL level. Do I have issues with Johnson's history as a part-time player? Absolutely. But, I've also seen him dominate (as we all have), and I've also seen him play like a high energy player that feels the moment and plays like a star. Has his body been betraying him this entire time? He's been notorious for cramping during games, and it's one of the reasons he's always been a part time player. Emmitt Smith gave a tip to Dallas Cowboy Tashard Choice to drink two bottles of pedialyte before and during games, and Choice passed that tip along to former teammate Michael Johnson, who struggled to stay cramp free (yet again) during the Jacksonville State game...and now over the last 6 games, Johnson has outproduced what he did in the previous 14 games...by nearly every measure. Is it that simple? Probably not, but it might be significant all the same. I have a feeling this is what Randy Mueller would call an ascending player. It has become fun for folks like me to pick on the kid relentlessly, but I have a feeling that he's slowly starting to turn it around and maybe live up to some of that hype. Watch the BC highlights here. This is the first game since Choice gave him his new cramp remedy. He's setting the edge in the run against LT Costonzo? He's whipping him in pass rush and disrupting the quarterback? He's dropping back in coverage and playing absolute HELL with his "stretch" frame, tipping up that pass that was subsequently intercepted. You know Bill Parcells loves that like he likes deep fried peanut butter and marshmallow sandwiches. He's getting low in his tackling, so that runners can't use the "stretch" frame against him to get extra yards after contact? And then there's that speed around the edge we've always known about. And what about this game? Check out 26 seconds in, look at him bull rush Virginia Tech's right tackle straight into the ball carrier? What in blazes is that about? Watch him run right by a double team like they don't matter, and follow up by setting the edge and making a two-gap play on a ball carrier at or near the LOS. That was his second game with his cramp remedy. His third game, Mississippi State (KB21's team), he blocked a chip shot field goal (I really recommend watching that video, look how HIGH he jumps to block that thing), had a sack on fourth down, recovered a fumble, and deflected 2 passes. What's screwing me up about Johnson this year is watching him set the edge against tackles on run plays, use his hands, disengage and make the play on the ball carrier. That shows me something that I didn't know he could really do very well. Bottom line, we might be coming full circle on this kid. We all laughed when draft "experts" put him up at the top of the boards pre-season on his potential alone. Who will be laughing by the end of the season? I'm not laughing anymore. Not with how I've seen him play this year, now that he's not cramping up and he's free to play full time (or something close to it).
I thought I ought to include a CB in this list, the one I think would actually get considered, and that is Malcolm Jenkins. I have reservations about even putting a CB here, as I don't believe Parcells will sign off on it. But, at the same time, Parcells is not the GM, Jeff Ireland is, and Parcells will tend to defer to Ireland, while at the same time trying to influence Jeff's thoughts. The thing about this is, I'm pretty sure that Jeff was with the Dallas scouts and personnel people on the Terrance Newman deal. When Jerry Jones and the Dallas personnel director at the time took Bill Parcells to dinner, and broke it to him that they wanted to go with Terrance Newman instead of Bill's pick, Kevin Williams...I wonder if Jeff Ireland was among the folks that cajoled Parcells into not throwing a hissy fit like he did with the Terry Glenn episode? Ireland became known in Dallas for his ability to work with Parcells, and Parcells came to respect Ireland's take on things...before Ireland took over the head personnel job in 2005. So, that is the wildcard, here...if Jeff Ireland really sinks his teeth into a certain CB, whether that be Vontae Davis or Malcolm Jenkins, would Parcells flat overrule him? I'm not quite positive, with the way Parcells mandated a deadline for them to sign Jake Long before they begin negotiations with Chris Long, that Parcells was one hundred percent convinced that Jake Long was the one and only one to get at the one spot. I think Jeff Ireland believed Jake was the one and only. I think Tony Sparano thought so as well. In fact, Ireland alluded to the fact that he had long considered Jake to be the top of that class since he was in Dallas (without Parcells there, I might add). So if it's true that Parcells wanted Chris Long and Ireland wanted Jake Long, obviously Tuna deferred to Ireland to a certain degree. If that happens again, and Ireland really has it in him that he wants a CB...will Parcells, once again, defer to a certain degree? Malcolm Jenkins catches the ball, bats down passes, blocks kicks, is a great blitzer, an all-around good football player. Nobody throws on the man. He's got ideal size at 6'0" and 200 (any bigger and that can come with problems). I guess some have entertained the idea of moving him to safety but I believe he's a potential shutdown corner, I don't see a problem here.
And the pick is... DE/OLB Greg Hardy, Ole Miss
As I said, Greg Hardy has the pure ability to be the premier defensive player in the draft. His experience as a WR, his basketball experience both in High School (where he was All-State) and in college (I believe he played for the Rebs' basketball team), they both lend very nicely toward his ability to make the transition to a space position such as the one Matt Roth currently occupies. He also has the size at 265 pounds to hold his own versus the run, seal the edge of a defense, and overpower backs and tight ends that try and play him in the backfield. They're going to look for on-your-feet athleticism, and a guy that has played WR and basketball extensively has that. I've also seen some athletic plays from him that really make your eyes pop out. There's one that stands out in my memory in particulary where someone went low on him as he spun to his left, he ended up on the ground but popped back up with such speed and forced that he launched right into the quarterback and I swear that even though he went to the ground, he lost no speed in his progress toward the quarterback. Hey what do you know, I found it. Right here. Check out at the 1:10 mark. That's an eye-popper.
Attitude and work ethic may be a problem, you won't know until you do a lot of digging and conduct a lot of interviews. But, we've seen some signs of how well he's thought of by the coaching staff, that he's in the process of maturing, and that he's a good influence on younger recruits as he's hosted several blue chippers at Oxford, according to Boomer.
I think they will see in him a lot of the reasons they drafted Demarcus Ware back in Dallas. Miami could use a significant pass rush presence aside from Joey Porter. I'm not too high on Joey Porter being the guy to lay his hand on the ground in 4-man rush situations, either. I think if you add Greg Hardy to that mix you immediately improve the 4-man rush in obvious passing situations, and during 3-4 downs I can see Hardy being a competent strong side linebacker with real pass rush presence and athleticism for dropping back.
Terrance Cody would be a good prospect to draft at this spot, and I think my number one choice might even be Michael Johnson if he continues to play the way he's been playing at times this year...but for now, I think that Michael Johnson will rocket up after the Combine and maybe get out of our reach a little bit. Meanwhile, Cody is only in his first year playing for Bama and he has already said he'll return in 2009...so until he says different it's hard for me to sit here and state the Dolphins WILL draft Terrance Cody. Greg Hardy's my guy, for now.
