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phins_4_ever

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NE @ Miami

New England Patriots

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NE passing
Brady stats - 129 comp/ 185 att - 69% comp rate - 1,326 total yards (7.17yards/att) with 11 TDs and 4 INTs, 6 sacks and a QB rating of 100.9 (5th in NFL)
Brady is the master of the dink and dunk offense. 44% of his passes come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and if you ad yards behind of the line of scrimmage (115 yards) and within 20 yards (529) he has accumulated 92% of his passing yards within the first 20 yards from the LOS.
While Brady seems accurate based completion percentage his bad throw percentage of overall attempts is at 15% and it is a total of 50% of all incompletions. (28-56). His receivers dropped a total of 4 passes which accumulates to 7% of all incompletions and 2.2% of all attempts.
Brady's completion percentage go down the further he has to throw (from 86% behind the LOS to 76.5% within 10 yards of the LOS to 60.5% from 11 to 20 yards from the LOS to 20% everything over 20 yards from the LOS).
71% of the total yardage Brady has thrown for went to three receivers: Patton, Branch and Brown...with all three receivers listed in the top 15.

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NE running
NE features former Bills RB A. Smith. Currently Smith is ranked 10th in total rushing yards (296-4.6yards/rush) with 1 TD and one 1 fumble and no 100-yard game.

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Offense overall
NE's offense is ranked #1 in total yards, #2 in yards per game, #1 in passing yards, #1 in passing yards per game, #15 in total rushing yards, #17 in rushing yards per game, #5 in total points scored and #7 in points per game.

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Defense overall
NE's defense is 15th overall ranked in total yards allowed. In yards per game allowed the Pats rank 8th. While the passing D ranks high (5th in total yards allowed and 1st in yards per game allowed), the rushing D is awful: 29th in yards per game allowed and 30th in total yards allowed.

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Miami Dolphins

Miami passing
Fiedler stats - 76 comp/ 120 att - 63% comp rate - 889 total yards (7.41yards/att) with 7 TDs and 5 INTs, 4 sacks and a QB rating of 87.8 (14th in NFL)
Much like Brady, most of Fiedler's passes come within the first 20 yards (89%).
While Fiedler is in the upper echelon of accuracy, we must also consider that drops of passes where at 6 of all incompletions (44), which accounts for about 13% (of all incompletions) and 5% of overall attempts. His poor throw ratio is rated at 31% of all incompletions and 11.7% of all attempts which also is ranked higher than is counterpart's numbers.
Much like Brady, Fiedler's percentages go down as the distance increases.

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Miami rushing
Miami rushing game is without doubt R. Williams. Currently ranked #2 in total yards (460-5.6yards/rush), Williams became the first Dolphin ever to rush for over 100 yards in three consecutive games. To everybody's surprise Ricky not only showed that he is a tough runner but also has that game breaker ability by out running the secondaries several times. A knock from New Orleans was that Ricky does not posses the speed or the hands (pass catching) to become a big time running back.
Besides his running abilities (4TDs) he has shown us that he is a pass catching back as well. His 145 yards, 1 TD and 11yard/ctach average is underlining that.

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Offense overall
Miami's offense is ranked #6 in total yards, #8 in yards per game, #14 in passing yards, #17 in passing yards per game, #3 in total rushing yards, #3 in rushing yards per game, #4 in total points scored and #5 in points per game.

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Defense overall
Miami's defense is 19th overall ranked in total yards allowed with a #17 rank in yards per game allowed. Miami's rush D is currently ranked #13 in overall and #9 in yards/game while the pass D is definitely the concern with #26 and #24 rankings.

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Takeaways/Giveaways

Pats are + 4 overall (#6) with 11 forced turnovers (#3 [6 INTs and 5 fumble recoveries] ) but also coughed the ball up 7 times (#19 [4INTs and 3 fumbles] ).
Dolphins are + 3 overall (#9). Dolphins gave the ball up 6 times (#12 [5INTs and 1 fumble] ) and recovered it 9 times (#7 [7INTs and 2 fumble recoveries] ).

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NE keys to victory
The OL has to protect Brady much better than they did against San Diego. While the Chargers did not record a sack they put enough pressure on Brady to disrupt his timing and force him to either throw to early or forced him out of the pocket. Brady puts up a lot of yards but he also needs a lot of attempts and completions to do so. NE is riding the "dink and dunk" like no other team.
Brady is not a deep passer.... he only has 7 attempts over 30 yards out of 185 total attempts. As long as Brady can sit back and has time he will rack up the yards.
On defense NE has to stop Ricky and McMichaels. Those two players have so far made Miami's offense work. With Ricky as the long sought premier back and McMichael as an additional weapon for the short and medium passing game Miami has become an exciting offense to watch.

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Miami keys to victory
Run-Ricky-Run.....still questioning the coach's decision to take Williams out of the offense late in the 3rd quarter (only being down 8 points) fans are wondering why Miami's offense became so one-dimensional in the 4th quarter.
With Ricky, McMichael, Konrad, Gadsen, Chambers - Miami has plenty of offensive weapons which made it exciting to watch the first three games. With NE run defense very suspect I expect the Dolphins to give them a heavy dose of Ricky and Robert. Miami has to establish the running game early.
On defense the Fins have to respect the short and medium passing game. While NE does not have a TE a la Gonzalez Brady is using Brady uses the short and medium outside routes a lot (yards: right-532; left-558; middle-234).
Bates should take SD's game plan as a blue print: put pressure on Brady without giving up "the house". Brady will still "rack" up the yards but hopefully the D can come up with some goal line stands.

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PREDICTION
Dolphins 41
Patriots 23

Another high scoring game. Miami's D will feed of the home crowd, Bates will have looked at the SD/NE game tape almost daily and with Troy Brown possibly out Miami's D will give Brady and co the yardage but not the points. A couple TD's will be given up in garbage time though.
The offense will run Ricky wild - running and catching. CC will have his best game of the year so far.
 

dolphan39

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great job FFiB - very thorough and well organized.

Seems to me that both teams may try to run more than usual (at NE) so that the score c/b lower, but if NE abandons the run and our D plays like the usually play early on at home (and w/Surtain starting :cool: ) we could force some TOs.
 

SWS84

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Nice post FFIB! I appreciate the time and energy it must have taken to write that. As far as the game goes, my guess is they are going to come after Jay this week and try and disrupt our offensive timing, especially if we fall behind. As with Brady, Feidler will pick defenses apart if he has the time and we will need to keep them off of Jay. Obviously, running the ball will help us considerably if we can get Ricky going and I'm guessing we may need to use the pass to set up the run, in the beginning. We are going to need a big game from our DL. Both teams are hungry and this is a very big game, for control of the division. We will win this game in the trenches and with a solid running. As you said...

Run-Ricky-Run!!!

:D :D :D
 

phins_4_ever

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Ricky is more...

Originally posted by SWS84
Nice post FFIB! I appreciate the time and energy it must have taken to write that. As far as the game goes, my guess is they are going to come after Jay this week and try and disrupt our offensive timing, especially if we fall behind. As with Brady, Feidler will pick defenses apart if he has the time and we will need to keep them off of Jay. Obviously, running the ball will help us considerably if we can get Ricky going and I'm guessing we may need to use the pass to set up the run, in the beginning. We are going to need a big game from our DL. Both teams are hungry and this is a very big game, for control of the division. We will win this game in the trenches and with a solid running. As you said...

Run-Ricky-Run!!!

:D :D :D
Ricky is more than just a running threat...his ability to catch the ball adds another dimension to our offense.

With Ricky, MM, CC, JM, OG, DW we have so many weapons that it should be called illegal in the NFL...lmao

:nesucks:

:monkey: AFC EAST
 

MackDaddy

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I can't see the fins putting p 41 points this week. This will be a low scoring nip and tuck game.
 

phins_4_ever

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well

Originally posted by MackDaddy
I can't see the fins putting p 41 points this week. This will be a low scoring nip and tuck game.
I feel that with our offense in sync is hard to stop..after all...despite 5 TOs with still scored 30 points last week.


Our offense is hard to stop this year....much like the NE offense.

we scored 49, 21,30 and 30 points....

In the Indy vistory we stopped ourselves several times with penalties in the second half. And like I said...last week we scored 30 despite 5 TOs.

So far the only way we got stopped because of us.
 
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