I voted 10-6. The major factor this year is the offseason "shopping" of Sparano and Henne. How are they going to respond to this lack of confidence? Will they crumble under the pressure of the public's perception of them, or will they thrive off it and become stronger? I'm hoping it'll be the latter.
Other than that here are the facts: We were a 7 win team last year, regardless of the bad breaks or bad calls, that's what we were. We drafted Mike Pouncey to be the anchor of the interior line, we signed a speedster in Gates to stretch the field, and we signed a power back in Daniel Thomas to carry the load in the running game. Oh, and we have Reggie Bush, a home run hitter at running back who looks rejuvenated, and ready to put this team on his shoulders (Did you see him push Gerald McCoy for extra yards last night? Holy cow). The questions marks, once again, are Henne and the o-line. If Henne plays like he has these past 3 exhibition games, we'll be a much improved team, but can he honestly play much worse than he did last year? Right now the o-line is looking pretty shaky, and we need Big Jake back so badly it's not even funny. I don't know if Carey will work at RG, and Columbo at RT, but these guys either need to gel ASAP, or we need to sign someone like Waters or Gurode.
Defense: Aside from Cam Wake, Mike Nolan is the most valuable person we've signed during Sparano's tenure. We're very fortunate to have him back, and this will likely be his last year here, so we have to make this work this year. Everybody is young, and 11 of our 12 starters on D from last year are returning. Crowder was a liability in coverage, and Kevin Burnett so far looks to be the best signing this whole offseason. He's blanketing tight ends, and making some damn good tackles. Even with Wake, pass rush was still a problem last year, and we signed potential hall of famer Jason Taylor, who would have been 2nd on the team in sacks in 2010 had he been a Dolphin. To me, it seems an already great defense has improved, and could take that next step and become "elite". The only problem I have with our defense is the disturbing absence of big plays. Turnovers turnovers turnovers! Nolan and Sparano stress it, but it doesn't transate on the field. We need those pick sixes, those scoop and scores, those safeties, all of it! That's what a truly great defense does, that's how you win championships.
A lot of this is simply addition by subtraction. Regardless of whether or not you think Henning limited Henne or vice versa, his offensive game plan was so horrid, I really think he was a double agent for the Patriots last year. Crowder was a good leader, but he couldn't back up his talk, and we're a better team without him.
The first two games this year are critical to this team's morale imo, and we need to go 1-1 vs NE/HOU. To get those 10 wins, you have to make BUF x2, OAK, DEN, WAS, CLE gimme games. I don't care where they're being played, if they want to make a run, these are the teams they can't lose to. Which means, we'll have to go at least 4-4 vs NE x2, NYJ x2, HOU, SD, NYG, DAL, PHIL, KC. Tough task, but doable if you ask me.
If we can muster a respectable ground game, and Henne can have a 20 TD 15 INT year, this team is a playoff contender. If Henne doesn't change, I won't be surprised if we turn out a 3rd 7-9 season. But there is reason for optimism. So...go Fins!