One way that Next Gen Stats is providing new, unique performance assessment provides a startling contract between how the Dolphins two contenders for the starting quarterback position have performed through Miami’s first three preseason games. And while the raw data (such as passer rating) suggests these two have played comparably well this August, Next Gen Stats tells a different story.
— based on available targets, separation and room to work within the pocket, Ryan Fitzpatrick has performed below the average expectation of an NFL quarterback. Josh Rosen? He’s completing passes at a 43% better rate than would be expected for an average quarterback on his reps.
https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2...lphins-qb-contenders-after-3-preseason-games/
The one thing you cannot do in preseason is use any kind of regular stats or metrics or anything you might want to use in regular season to evaluate a QB. In preseason it is all about stuff like "making the right decisions".
Let me give you an example. When Rosen scrambled to his right in the 4th quarter he launched a perfect pass, on the run, to Ford. It was a bullet and deadly accurate. Fans and media are elated. Stats show a completion of 20 yards (or whatever it was). But I can tell you that Flores and co will give Rosen an F for that. Why? It is all about making the right decision, not making mistakes, avoiding costly errors and giving the team a chance to win.
When you go back and look at the film you see an open guy underneath with about 15 yards to run. I don't have to be sitting in the next QB meeting to tell you that Flores is going to rip Rosen.
The safe pass is the underneath guy. The pass Rosen made is incredibly dangerous opposed to the safe pass. In regular season against starters and at full speed that pass might be a broken up pass or worst case scenario an interception. There is a time for these passes but in this case it was not.
The typical NE offense is the safe play. Don't take unnecessary risks. In danger of repeating myself (but it seems necessary) I have to point out how often have we seen Brady on the run just for him to find that wide open guy he could dump the ball off and then that player runs for another 10 yards? Over and over again. That was such a play. And this is the problem Flores and O'Shea still have with Rosen: the decision making. Make the right decision. It didn't cost us in preseason. That pass made the highlight reel. But in regular season it is the wrong pass at the wrong time. If that ball is dropped to the guy underneath (I believe it was a TE) it is at least a gain of the same amount of yards (just safer) and if Ford turns into a blocker and gives the TE a lane to the outside it could be a huge gain.
Fitzpatrick looked like ****. To us. To the media. Yet Flores said Fitzpatrick looked good. Why? Again, Flores and Co look for other areas besides scoring, completions, incompletions. They look for the decision making, receivers running the proper route and does the QB make the safe decisions and gives the team a chance to win rather than lose the game with stupid decisions and costly errors.
Again, how often have we seen Brady struggle in the first half, or seemingly struggle, just to turn it up a notch in the second half and suddenly it was clicking. Brady stays away from stupid plays and bad decisions. I think the best example was the Super Bowl against the Falcons but he has dine that over the years to us. Flores and Co want our QBs not to lose the game. Give the team a chance to compete. Coaches will make adjustments on the fly or major adjustments at half time.
In preseason coaches look for these intangibles rather than being clouded by regular stats. And that is why Flores prefers Fitzpatrick for now over Rosen. Rosen has to learn to make the right decisions. In this offense the QB not only has to make the quick decision but the right one.
For Rosen to sit on the sidelines for a few games while he can observe and learn (even from mistakes Fitzpatrick will make not just from the good decisions) is the right thing to do.
Unless they see on film that Fitzpatrick completely **** the bed with the wrong decision all over the place he will be the starter.
