NFL draft odds: Will Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert be QB2? Massive shift in odds provides a hint

[jim1]

There has been a massive change in the odds for the second quarterback taken at BetMGM in New Jersey. And it doesn’t favor Tagovailoa.

Bettors have a clear opinion on the second QB picked
Herbert is the safer pick. He’s got prototypical size, good athleticism and a great arm. Tagovailoa’s longer injury history, specifically his hip, will frighten some teams.

Tagovailoa was once minus-500 to be the second quarterback taken, meaning you’d have to wager $500 to win $100. The second quarterback drafted has been one of the most popular draft props this year, and heavy action on Herbert has changed the odds and pushed him into a tie with Tagovailoa. Both players are listed at -121.

NFL draft odds: Will Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert be QB2? Massive shift in odds provides a hint

Bettors have changed the odds on the second quarterback drafted in a big way.

www.yahoo.com

 

[jimthefin]

My hope is that the chatter out there that Miami likes Herbert is out there because Miami wants it out there.

To dissuade anyone from thinking they need to jump them to get Tua.

That is my hope.

I do not hate Herbert, but I think I might hate him at #5.

All 3 of our top QB options are potential disasters for different reasons.

What a tough call for Grier and Flores.

 

[MiamiMuss]

Where is Awsi when we need him.Theres another person that nose his betting.
That word SAFE is so damn blinding.Safe gets you know where.

 

[jimthefin]

I would roll the dice on Tua, he is worth risking the 5th pick, but no trade up.

Herbert may be safe but I don't see him ever being among the best in the League.

Love may have the potential to be great but It is not very likely that it happens.He would be a true longs hot bet.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Where is Awsi when we need him.Theres another person that nose his betting.
That word SAFE is so damn blinding.Safe gets you know where.

I don't bet the draft over/unders. I probably should, on a limited basis. But it requires subjectivity and not a systematic approach, which is my preference.

Basically you are wagering on opinions and not outcomes. And one opinion dictates and changes everything. That's the main reason I don't participate. If a guy is going to be drafted mid second round by the other 31 teams but one team somehow decides he's worth the 16th pick in the first round, then that's the result.

I don't enjoy it when an outlier can dictate the payoff. But I think ckparrothead has mentioned that he wagers on this stuff.

Regardless, I don't think this Tua prop line movement was difficult to figure out. I have mentioned here a few times recently that there has been a steady accumulation of murmurs for a couple of weeks that Tua might slip. That is why the number changed so dramatically. If it had been merely one tidbit like Michael Lombardi then the bettors would not particularly care. They also would not care if an injury were not involved. Once you have the dual variables pointing in the same direction of the major injury and also the whispers from one source after another that teams can't evaluate and might not be willing to take an early risk, then the number moves and there's not a heck of a lot to stop the trend. I would expect it to continue in the same direction, unless some sharp guy who loaded up on Herbert at plus money now plays a scalp by also taking Tua at plus money or small minus like the current 5/6 (-120) range.

Bottom line, always keep this in mind: Wise guy bettors love to take the under, not the over. They prefer wagering under on game totals, they prefer wagering under on season win totals, and so forth. It is the opposite of the public, which thrills to wager on the over.

In this instance, wagering on Tua to fall is the equivalent of betting on the under. It is wagering on No, an injured quarterback won't be selected very high. Wise guys love the season win under because so many variables can intervene to cause an under. Same thing here. Countless rumors and fears can cause Tua to drop. Only one aspect can cause him to be selected high, if one of those early selecting teams says Yes, he's the guy we want above everyone else on the board.