Exactly... just like we don’t know if there are hidden gems in this QB class that the masses are missing... surely wouldn’t Be the first time!
The entire draft is educated speculation. Nothing is guaranteed. We agree on that.
But I think Tom Brady is an aberration, not the result of a strategy to take a shot for a QB. Here are all of the 6th round QB's since 1999 when Marino retired.
1999:
None
2000:
Marc Bulger - New Orleans Saints (168 overall)
Spergon Wynn - Cleveland Browns (183 overall, the QB taken just before Tom Brady)
Tom Brady - New England Patriots (199 overall and much lower in our hearts!)
Todd Husak - Washington Redskins (202 overall)
2001:
Josh Booty - Seattle Seahawks
Josh Heupel - Miami Dolphins (hey, we took a shot!)
2002:
JT O'Sullivan - New Orleans Saints
2003:
Drew Henson - Houston Texans (guy who supplanted Brady at Michigan)
Brooks Bollinger - New York Jets
Kliff Kingsbury - New England Patriots (now Arizona Head Coach)
2004:
Josh Harris - Baltimore Ravens
Jim Sorgi - Indianapolis Colts
Jeff Smoker - St. Louis Rams
2005:
Derek Anderson - Baltimore Ravens (later had a successful year with Cleveland)
2006:
Bruce Gradknowski - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2007:
Jordan Palmer - Washington Redskins
2008:
Colt Brennan - Washington Redskins (I kinda liked this prospect)
Andre Woodson - New York Giants
2009:
Tom Brandstater - Denver Broncos
Mike Teel - Seattle Seahawks
Keith Null - St. Louis Rams
Curtis Painter - Indianapolis Colts (lead the team in the "Suck For Luck" sweepstakes!)
2010:
Rusy Smith - Tennessee Titans
Dan LeFevour - Chicago Bears
Joe Webb - Minnesota Vikings
Tony Pike - Carolina Panthers
2011:
Tyrod Taylor - Baltimore Ravens (later had some success with Buffalo)
2012:
Ryan Lindley - Arizona Cardinals
2013:
None
2014:
Zach Mettenberger - Tennessee Titans
David Fales - Chicago Bears
Keith Wenning - Baltimore Ravens
Tajh Boyd - New York Jets
Garrett Gilbert - St. Louis Rams (currently succeeding with the AAFL's Orlando Apollos)
2015:
None
2016:
Nate Sudfeld - Washington Redskins
Jake Rudock - Detroit Lions (will he be our Miami Dolphins starter in 2019???)
Brandon Allen - Jacksonville Jaguars
Jeff Driskel - San Francisco 49'ers
2017:
Brad Kaaya - Detroit Lions
2018:
Luke Falk - Tennessee Titans (will he be our Miami Dolphins starter in 2019???)
Tanner Lee - Jacksonville Jaguars
So there have been 40 QB's taken in the 6th round since Marino retired. We've heard about Tom Brady quite a lot. My opinion is that he is the proverbial needle-in-a-haystack, that while very sharp and proves a point … is the epitome of difficult to find.
IMHO, the late rounds are not the place to draft a QB. I'm not against taking a shot in round 2 if you truly believe in the guy. But, if you truly believe in the guy, trade up into the 1st round and get that 5th year option. If he's not worth doing that, then you probably don't really believe in him … it's more like hope than belief. And if you're drafting in the 1st round, why not up the chances considerably and draft early in round 1? The scouting is too good today, and while there are exceptions, the percentages greatly favor the top few picks. I think the position is too crucial to ignore those percentages. Just my $0.02.