Is it selective amnesia that makes people forget coaches like Jimmy Johnson and Dave Wannstedt? Retread head coaches are a dead end in the NFL. Last year, there were an especially high number of "successful retreads" with 4 in the playoffs. The 8 other HC's in the playoffs were first-time hires. This breakdown was identical the year before. The year before that it was 3 retreads and 9 first-time coaches in the playoffs, the year before that it was 2 retreads and 10 first-time head coaches and keep in mind 1 of those retreads year to year is Bill Belichick, so if you look at the sample minus Belichick it's even less impressive. You could do this regression for decades and find a similar pattern.
Look around the league at the quarter mark of the NFL season: Teams coached by retreads like Lovie Smith, Ken Whisenhunt, John Fox, Jeff Fisher, Andy Reid and Jim Caldwell are just awful. Of the undefeated teams in the league the Bengals, Falcons, Packers, Panthers are all coached by first-time head coaches. The 3-1 teams are coached by first-time hires. Hiring Cowher or Gruden would be a bloody disaster, you're just inviting this organization to put a kick me sign on their backs. Billick hasn't been given another opportunity since he was sent packing in Baltimore largely because everyone knew the Raven's front office, Billick's assistants and his historically good defenses were responsible for their success far more than Billick was. Six of Billick's assistants in Baltimore are or were head coaches in the NFL: Marv Lewis, Jack Del Rio, Rex Ryan, Mike Pettine, Mike Smith and Mike Singletary. He was hired with the reputation as an offensive genius, but could never muster even a decent passing offense in his years in Baltimore, relying upon ferocious defenses, a dominant run game and great offensive lines to win. No thanks.
