Fin-Fan-13
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What does this mean for our current QB's, Beck in particular, and QBs in the 2008 draft?
I read this article College Quarterbacks Through the Prism of Statistics when it was first published. The article states that "the two most predictive college statistics are completion percentage and games started." Of course these statistics need to be taken looked at with an objective eye.
"Some critics still question Cutler’s accuracy, arguing that 59 percent as a senior is not really that impressive. The problem with this argument is that it does not consider the context of the numbers. Tim Couch completed 67 percent of his passes in college. At the time, scouts did not realize that Couch was playing for a certified offensive genius, Mike Leach, who now routinely produces 65+ percent passers at Texas Tech. In the decade before Cutler arrived, Vanderbilt’s starting quarterbacks completed 47.6 percent of their passes. For comparision, the quarterbacks before Leinart completed 59.6 percent of their passes, and those prior to Young completed 57.7 percent. This partially indicates that the quarterbacks who preceded Young and Leinart (Major Applewhite, Chris Simms, Carson Palmer
, Rob Johnson) were more talented than those who preceded Cutler. But it also reflects the better talent and coaching surrounding quarterbacks at Texas and USC."
Using this formula for grading QBs, how would the 2008 crop of QB's be graded? The author had a chance to interview Lewin for his column Draft '08: The Quarterbacks http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=Nfl&columnid=60&articleid=29927&pg=1 and has included some summarized commentary from his conversation for each quarterback in the top ten.
Interesting read. Here is what the article has to say about Finheaven's favorite QBs in this draft:
"Brohm's arm isn't on Andre Woodson's level, but his combination of accuracy, smarts, and work ethic is the best in the draft. Durability is a concern, but his specific injuries haven't been recurring. Brohm is unlikely to be the top QB taken because of all the hype surrounding Matt Ryan, but he has the best chance to be a Pro Bowl caliber player. Brohm is still likely to go in the middle of the first round, and could creep into the top ten."
"Ryan's completion percentage to college starts ratio is not nearly as impressive as Woodson or Brian Brohm's. He wasn't surrounded by great weapons, but did have an elite offensive line. Because he can look so special on film, Ryan will be a first-round pick and projects as a solid NFL starter. But his tendency to force things is a flaw that can be uncorrectable. Ryan's decision to withdraw from pre-draft events also will not help him on April 26."
"Henne's college stats were never prolific, which could be due to a number of factors (i.e. opponents, conservative UM offense). He also never got much better after his freshman season. But Henne has the intangibles, toughness, and physical traits to be a ten-year starter and an above average NFL quarterback. His stock is on the rise after a strong showing at the Senior Bowl, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he's a late first-round pick. Just don't expect many Pro Bowl appearances."
"Flacco was behind Tyler Palko on the Pittsburgh depth chart early in his college career. He transferred to D-IAA Delaware, sat out the 2005 season, and began starting in 2006. Flacco has some intriguing tools, but wasn't good enough to beat out a quarterback that ultimately went undrafted and likely doesn't have a career in the NFL. Using reason, the idea that Flacco should be a second- or third-round draft pick is illogical. Flacco is more of a second-day to late second-day prospect who should be viewed as a project, not relied on to play within the next two seasons."
Even though Beck is already a member of the team, it would be interesting to see how he graded out predraft using similar logic.
I read this article College Quarterbacks Through the Prism of Statistics when it was first published. The article states that "the two most predictive college statistics are completion percentage and games started." Of course these statistics need to be taken looked at with an objective eye.
"Some critics still question Cutler’s accuracy, arguing that 59 percent as a senior is not really that impressive. The problem with this argument is that it does not consider the context of the numbers. Tim Couch completed 67 percent of his passes in college. At the time, scouts did not realize that Couch was playing for a certified offensive genius, Mike Leach, who now routinely produces 65+ percent passers at Texas Tech. In the decade before Cutler arrived, Vanderbilt’s starting quarterbacks completed 47.6 percent of their passes. For comparision, the quarterbacks before Leinart completed 59.6 percent of their passes, and those prior to Young completed 57.7 percent. This partially indicates that the quarterbacks who preceded Young and Leinart (Major Applewhite, Chris Simms, Carson Palmer
, Rob Johnson) were more talented than those who preceded Cutler. But it also reflects the better talent and coaching surrounding quarterbacks at Texas and USC."Using this formula for grading QBs, how would the 2008 crop of QB's be graded? The author had a chance to interview Lewin for his column Draft '08: The Quarterbacks http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=Nfl&columnid=60&articleid=29927&pg=1 and has included some summarized commentary from his conversation for each quarterback in the top ten.
Interesting read. Here is what the article has to say about Finheaven's favorite QBs in this draft:
"Brohm's arm isn't on Andre Woodson's level, but his combination of accuracy, smarts, and work ethic is the best in the draft. Durability is a concern, but his specific injuries haven't been recurring. Brohm is unlikely to be the top QB taken because of all the hype surrounding Matt Ryan, but he has the best chance to be a Pro Bowl caliber player. Brohm is still likely to go in the middle of the first round, and could creep into the top ten."
"Ryan's completion percentage to college starts ratio is not nearly as impressive as Woodson or Brian Brohm's. He wasn't surrounded by great weapons, but did have an elite offensive line. Because he can look so special on film, Ryan will be a first-round pick and projects as a solid NFL starter. But his tendency to force things is a flaw that can be uncorrectable. Ryan's decision to withdraw from pre-draft events also will not help him on April 26."
"Henne's college stats were never prolific, which could be due to a number of factors (i.e. opponents, conservative UM offense). He also never got much better after his freshman season. But Henne has the intangibles, toughness, and physical traits to be a ten-year starter and an above average NFL quarterback. His stock is on the rise after a strong showing at the Senior Bowl, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he's a late first-round pick. Just don't expect many Pro Bowl appearances."
"Flacco was behind Tyler Palko on the Pittsburgh depth chart early in his college career. He transferred to D-IAA Delaware, sat out the 2005 season, and began starting in 2006. Flacco has some intriguing tools, but wasn't good enough to beat out a quarterback that ultimately went undrafted and likely doesn't have a career in the NFL. Using reason, the idea that Flacco should be a second- or third-round draft pick is illogical. Flacco is more of a second-day to late second-day prospect who should be viewed as a project, not relied on to play within the next two seasons."
Even though Beck is already a member of the team, it would be interesting to see how he graded out predraft using similar logic.