**Official Kentucky Derby Thread**

[LouPhinFan]

Ok since the post position draw is now complete, there can be serious discussion now.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/more/04/30/kentucky.derby.draw.ap/index.html

Last year I was one horse away from the superfecta (damn thee Hard Spun!!)

This year I'm looking at this super:

Colonel John
Pyro
Visionaire
Court Vision

I think I'm going to get good value on Visionaire and Court Vision in a super. I've been hearing good things all week long about Visionaire. I was thinking about betting Gayego, but with his outside post position and him being a smaller speed horse I'll leave him out. I am thinking about replacing Court Vision with Recapturetheglory which is another speed horse coming from the outside, but is bigger than Gayego. There's alot of speed on the outside this year, so the early pace is going to be fast. This race is going to set up for closers like Colonel John and Pyro. I'm not going to drink the Big Brown koolaid on this one. I always like throwing a speed horse in the bottom of my super. I got lucky last year with Imawildandcrazyguy but he raced from the 5 hole not the 18 hole like Recapturetheglory. The filly Eight Belles is also a possibility...

What say you, race fans?

 

[FINSFAN2781]

Big Brown wins with ease, however yet another race where another horse had to be euthanized. Eight Belles broke both her front ankles and had to be euthanized on the track. Once again the race is overtaken by another injury.

 

[ac_lanham]

It's seriously time for Churchill Downs, Pimlico, and Belmont Park to put some synthetic dirt down on the track. Anything to lessen the likelihood of another horse breaking down.

 

[LouPhinFan]

Yeah, my super was blown all to hell. I didn't give Big Brown enough credit.

The dirt is only one way the triple crown tracks court danger for the animals in the big races. The other way is letting the race go off with 20 horses. That is just asking for an accident in one of the turns. All it takes is for one horse to go down and that would take out half the field in a chain reaction. Horse racing and specifically the Derby would suffer a media black eye that would not easily heal. Really the field should be limited to no more than 16.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I agree 20 is too much. Heck, when I'm at Saratoga in August I basically ignore the 12 horse fields as too difficult to handicap due to racing luck.

I couldn't take that price on Big Brown, not after getting nearly 5/1 on a more proven horse in Street Sense last year. But it looked like a poor field and I expected Big Brown to win. The only wager I made was Big Brown in a head to head matchup over Colonel John, who I felt was overrated.

It wasn't like last year when Curlin figured to be shuffled behind a wall of horses, after only 3 starts. Big Brown and Bob Black Jack were the only true speed horses this year.

How do they hype the Preakness as anything but a likely walkover? I can't find a lurker like Bernardini this time. Maybe Colonel John will go forward, and I guess Pyro will be considered a threat at a mile and a half in the Belmont. But right now I'd be surprised if Big Brown is denied the Triple Crown.

BTW, the moron representative of Yum Brands should be euthanized after his disgusting presentation in the trophy ceremony. It was obviously rehearsed and he had no ability to adapt to situation, rambling with a plastic smile about what a great day it had been.

 

[ac_lanham]

Yeah, my super was blown all to hell. I didn't give Big Brown enough credit.

The dirt is only one way the triple crown tracks court danger for the animals in the big races. The other way is letting the race go off with 20 horses. That is just asking for an accident in one of the turns. All it takes is for one horse to go down and that would take out half the field in a chain reaction. Horse racing and specifically the Derby would suffer a media black eye that would not easily heal. Really the field should be limited to no more than 16.

I agree, totally forgot about that. It's just sad to see another horse die after running a race. PETA's probably going to be all over this one.

 

[LouPhinFan]

I agree 20 is too much. Heck, when I'm at Saratoga in August I basically ignore the 12 horse fields as too difficult to handicap due to racing luck.

I couldn't take that price on Big Brown, not after getting nearly 5/1 on a more proven horse in Street Sense last year. But it looked like a poor field and I expected Big Brown to win. The only wager I made was Big Brown in a head to head matchup over Colonel John, who I felt was overrated.

It wasn't like last year when Curlin figured to be shuffled behind a wall of horses, after only 3 starts. Big Brown and Bob Black Jack were the only true speed horses this year.

How do they hype the Preakness as anything but a likely walkover? I can't find a lurker like Bernardini this time. Maybe Colonel John will go forward, and I guess Pyro will be considered a threat at a mile and a half in the Belmont. But right now I'd be surprised if Big Brown is denied the Triple Crown.

BTW, the moron representative of Yum Brands should be euthanized after his disgusting presentation in the trophy ceremony. It was obviously rehearsed and he had no ability to adapt to situation, rambling with a plastic smile about what a great day it had been.

Yeah, hopefully Big Brown will do what Barbaro was meant to do but couldn't because of the injury: win the Triple Crown. I agree; he's got to be the overwhelming favorite from here on out.

Churchill has happy hour Fridays with $1.50 beers and hotdogs plus live music in the paddock area all during the spring meet. My buddies and I usually go almost every Friday. I think I'll follow your lead and stay away from the races with more than 12 horses.

 

[MikeO]

I liked Z FORTUNE.

I never thought BIG BROWN starting from the 20 position could win. Let alone win going away like he did. That's a special horse

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Yeah, hopefully Big Brown will do what Barbaro was meant to do but couldn't because of the injury: win the Triple Crown. I agree; he's got to be the overwhelming favorite from here on out.

Churchill has happy hour Fridays with $1.50 beers and hotdogs plus live music in the paddock area all during the spring meet. My buddies and I usually go almost every Friday. I think I'll follow your lead and stay away from the races with more than 12 horses.

Barbaro vs. Bernardini would have been a fascinating Preakness. Of course, at the time we didn't realize how good Bernardini was.

I envy your access to Churchill Downs. I've only been there once, a couple weeks after Derby Day in the '80s. The thing I remember most is standing in the Kentucky Derby Museum and reciting the names of the Derby winners beginning with Aristides in 1875, while my back was to the respective silks hanging from the ceiling. A small crowd gathered and it was like I was a freak show.

I memorized every Derby winner when I was in high school and add the new name each year. Getting to be a chore. I struggled yesterday trying to maneuver toward Big Brown. The old ones flow from memory because I know it like the alphabet. But the new ones I have to think of let's say 1996, and where I was at the time, and who the heck won that Derby.

Daily race handicapping is beyond my capability. Too many variables. That's why I prefer matchups, one horse to beat another, more in line with wagering on sports. But the matchups are seldom offered, other than major races.

At Saratoga every summer I've definitely improved my bottom line by focusing on the short to midsize fields, betting to win only. IMO, getting too cute with exotics, or too petrified and safe with place and show wagers, merely adds variables that don't need to be there. Gamblers are ruined by money management, and finding creative ways to lose even when they have a good feel to the terrain. Betting to win, and accepting the losing streaks as inevitable, has always worked best for me. Andy Beyer in his original book "Picking Winners" stressed the mathematical superiority of betting to win.

 

[LouPhinFan]

Barbaro vs. Bernardini would have been a fascinating Preakness. Of course, at the time we didn't realize how good Bernardini was.

I envy your access to Churchill Downs. I've only been there once, a couple weeks after Derby Day in the '80s. The thing I remember most is standing in the Kentucky Derby Museum and reciting the names of the Derby winners beginning with Aristides in 1875, while my back was to the respective silks hanging from the ceiling. A small crowd gathered and it was like I was a freak show.

I memorized every Derby winner when I was in high school and add the new name each year. Getting to be a chore. I struggled yesterday trying to maneuver toward Big Brown. The old ones flow from memory because I know it like the alphabet. But the new ones I have to think of let's say 1996, and where I was at the time, and who the heck won that Derby.

Daily race handicapping is beyond my capability. Too many variables. That's why I prefer matchups, one horse to beat another, more in line with wagering on sports. But the matchups are seldom offered, other than major races.

At Saratoga every summer I've definitely improved my bottom line by focusing on the short to midsize fields, betting to win only. IMO, getting too cute with exotics, or too petrified and safe with place and show wagers, merely adds variables that don't need to be there. Gamblers are ruined by money management, and finding creative ways to lose even when they have a good feel to the terrain. Betting to win, and accepting the losing streaks as inevitable, has always worked best for me. Andy Beyer in his original book "Picking Winners" stressed the mathematical superiority of betting to win.

Here's a tip sheet I use alot when I head to the Downs:

http://www.triplecrownselections.com/

This guy is great when it comes to the downs, but not so good on the poly at Keenland. The sheet is only $5 and I get at least one superfecta winner off of it every time.:up: I didn't use it for Derby however...

 

[LouPhinFan]

Here comes PETA:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/more/05/04/bc.rac.peta.eightbelles.ap/index.html

People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals is seeking the suspension of Eight Belles' jockey after the filly had to be euthanized following her second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.
Gabriel Saez was riding Eight Belles when she broke both front ankles while galloping out a quarter of a mile past the wire. She was euthanized on the track.
PETA faxed a letter Sunday to Kentucky's racing authority claiming the filly was "doubtlessly injured before the finish" and asked that Saez be suspended while Eight Belles' death is investigated.
"What we really want to know, did he feel anything along the way?" PETA spokeswoman Kathy Guillermo said. "If he didn't then we can probably blame the fact that they're allowed to whip the horses mercilessly."
Eight Belles trainer Larry Jones said the filly was clearly happy when she crossed the finish line.
"I don't know how in the heck they can even come close to saying that," Jones told The Associated Press on Sunday. "She has her ears up, clearly galloping out..."

I'm guessing there will be naked hippie PETA protesters at next year's Derby...