phins_4_ever
E12 FH Tailgate Gang
How quickly people forget a winning streak. Yeah, it sucks that we lost against Baltimore but it certainly is not the end.
Prior to the season I predicted an 8-8 record only because I upgraded our division record. A prediction of an 8-8 record was considered homeristic.
They flipped games on me (L to TN and W vs Steelers) and won an extra game I thought they would lose (in SD). The Dolphins were on pace to win 9 games on my sheet. And they still are. The last 4 games I was thinking of a 2-2 record (W vcs Cards and in NY, L in Buffalo and vs NE). If everything stays we will indeed end up with a 9-7 record and that is a huge improvement.
I certainly do not think we will be worse than 2-2 in the last 4 games but the opposite can very easily happen. The games in Buffalo and against the Pats are up for the taking and that would definitely keep us in the playoff race for the last game of the season.
Pre Baltimore I was thinking that this is the game to change the franchise. A win against Baltimore and I would have bet my house that the Dolphins would have stayed undefeated prior to the NE game and with the Pats maybe losing a game somewhere along the line setting up an AFC East Division showdown. That is now highly unlikely.
But we still have a lot to play for. Losing to Baltimore is not new to us. Somehow they have had our numbers over the years and that seems to continue. The team played flat in pretty much every aspect. But that blowout loss is also a blessing in disguise. We know that we are not that bad anymore. The team knows they are not that bad. They just had a bad day - from coaches to players. After a 6 week high I'll give them that. And to be honest I settled for a loss very early in the game. Sure the hope to win is always there but I was quite content. Nothing seems to go right and the score reflects that. I take a loss like that much easier than one of those nail biters and sit around afterwards and discuss this one play or the other which may have changed the outcome.
For the near future: the playoffs are still in sight. It may be a little harder but not impossible. Right now we occupy the #7 slot with one game out of a playoff spot (Denver at 8-4). As strong as the AFC West looks (currently 3 of 4 teams holding a playoff spot) Denver looks the most likely candidate to be caught. KC has already two games on us. Denver could easily lose 3 of their 4 remaining games. (NE, @KC, OAK).
I take the #5 spot completely out of the equation. That spot will be occupied by the loser of the AFC West division race (KC or OAK).
To make Denver our target I want KC and OAK to win their remaining games and I don't care what they do against each other. One will go 3-1 and one will go 4-0.
This is a very reasonable expectation and in that scenario Denver will go no better than 2-2 and end up with a 10-6 record (at best).
The AFC North is a tight division. Baltimore ahead of Steelers. Naturally I hope the Ravens take the division. In a 2-team tiebreaker scenario we have the advantage over the Steelers. In a perfect world we win out and it doesn't matter because neither can go unbeaten. Either one or both would end up 10-6 and we would end up 11-5. But we do have to expect at least one more loss (just to be reasonable). The most likely scenario right now a three-way tiebreaker for the last wild card. Since none of the clubs involved has a sweep over the other two (doesn't matter who the three contenders would be) the conference record will be the first tiebreaker. In that case we do not want a scenario of DEN-BAL-MIA. Baltimore sits at 7-2, Denver at 5-3 and us at 5-4.
Either way you look at it we want Baltimore to win the division. In that case I want them to go 4-0, take the division outright and make Pitts climb to 3-1 in the last 4 games much harder (here comes Buffalo).
No we look at the four 6-6 teams (Indy will join them after tonight).
Buffalo 6-6
TN 6-6
Colts 6-6
Houston 6-6
I would take two teams off right away. Colts will lose @ Oakland and Titans will lose @ KC which will give them at least 7 losses and will designate them to a spoiler role. And with the game Texans vs Colts next weekend one team will be eliminated from playoff contention and one will play for the AFC South. Though with 7 losses you are not mathematically eliminated but you need a gazillion scenarios just to be in contention with a possible four or five 9-7 teams with a gazillion tiebreaker scenarios.
Buffalo though could go 4-0. I penciled a loss in Buffalo already in. Their next three are all at home vs Steelers, Cleveland, Dolphins and closing out @ Jets.
In case of any tiebreaker scenario between more than 2 teams we would beat Buffalo based on division record (head-to-head is a tie before going to the conference.
Most likely scenarios:
Baltimore 10-6 going 3-1 (L @ NE, W vs Eagles, W @ Steelers, W @ Bengals)
Pittsburgh 9-7 going 2-2 (L @ Buffalo, W @ Bengals, W vs Cleveland; L vs Ravens)
* Baltimore wins division
Denver 9-7 going 1-3 (W @Titans, L vs NE, L @KC, L vs Raiders
Dolphins 10-6 going 3-1 (W vs Cardinals, W @ Jets, L @ Buffalo, W vs NE, )
Buffalo 10-6 going 4-0 (W vs Steelers, vs Cleveland, vs Dolphins, @ Jets)
One thing for sure: there will be a 10-6 team going to the playoffs and a 10-6 team (or multiple) staying home. 9-7 will not get you a playoff spot and an 11-5 record will almost assure you a playoff spot.
Scenarios for the AFC East:
If everything stays put the Pats win the division by at least one game (most likely 2 games). Buffalo and Dolphins are on track to compete for the last WC spot.
Games to watch for week 14 (I highlighted my wishful thinking):
Dec 12 Baltimore @ NE (a Pats win would help us vs Baltimore, a Baltimore win would help us vs Pittsburgh)
Dec 11 Pittsburgh @ Buffalo (a Buffalo win would help us vs Pittsburgh, a Pittsburgh win would help us vs Buffalo)
Dec 11 Cardinals @ Dolphins (no explanation needed)
Dec 11 Denver @ Tennessee (a TN loss would drop TN to 7 losses which is good, a Denver loss would help us in the long run)
- all other games have no immediate impact at this time.
If Baltimore can indeed beat the Pats another scenario would open up for us again: the AFC East. But for that we have to go 4-0 and NE has to drop one of their other two games: @ Denver or vs Jets. But that would be another scenario for another day.
Prior to the season I predicted an 8-8 record only because I upgraded our division record. A prediction of an 8-8 record was considered homeristic.
They flipped games on me (L to TN and W vs Steelers) and won an extra game I thought they would lose (in SD). The Dolphins were on pace to win 9 games on my sheet. And they still are. The last 4 games I was thinking of a 2-2 record (W vcs Cards and in NY, L in Buffalo and vs NE). If everything stays we will indeed end up with a 9-7 record and that is a huge improvement.
I certainly do not think we will be worse than 2-2 in the last 4 games but the opposite can very easily happen. The games in Buffalo and against the Pats are up for the taking and that would definitely keep us in the playoff race for the last game of the season.
Pre Baltimore I was thinking that this is the game to change the franchise. A win against Baltimore and I would have bet my house that the Dolphins would have stayed undefeated prior to the NE game and with the Pats maybe losing a game somewhere along the line setting up an AFC East Division showdown. That is now highly unlikely.
But we still have a lot to play for. Losing to Baltimore is not new to us. Somehow they have had our numbers over the years and that seems to continue. The team played flat in pretty much every aspect. But that blowout loss is also a blessing in disguise. We know that we are not that bad anymore. The team knows they are not that bad. They just had a bad day - from coaches to players. After a 6 week high I'll give them that. And to be honest I settled for a loss very early in the game. Sure the hope to win is always there but I was quite content. Nothing seems to go right and the score reflects that. I take a loss like that much easier than one of those nail biters and sit around afterwards and discuss this one play or the other which may have changed the outcome.
For the near future: the playoffs are still in sight. It may be a little harder but not impossible. Right now we occupy the #7 slot with one game out of a playoff spot (Denver at 8-4). As strong as the AFC West looks (currently 3 of 4 teams holding a playoff spot) Denver looks the most likely candidate to be caught. KC has already two games on us. Denver could easily lose 3 of their 4 remaining games. (NE, @KC, OAK).
I take the #5 spot completely out of the equation. That spot will be occupied by the loser of the AFC West division race (KC or OAK).
To make Denver our target I want KC and OAK to win their remaining games and I don't care what they do against each other. One will go 3-1 and one will go 4-0.
This is a very reasonable expectation and in that scenario Denver will go no better than 2-2 and end up with a 10-6 record (at best).
The AFC North is a tight division. Baltimore ahead of Steelers. Naturally I hope the Ravens take the division. In a 2-team tiebreaker scenario we have the advantage over the Steelers. In a perfect world we win out and it doesn't matter because neither can go unbeaten. Either one or both would end up 10-6 and we would end up 11-5. But we do have to expect at least one more loss (just to be reasonable). The most likely scenario right now a three-way tiebreaker for the last wild card. Since none of the clubs involved has a sweep over the other two (doesn't matter who the three contenders would be) the conference record will be the first tiebreaker. In that case we do not want a scenario of DEN-BAL-MIA. Baltimore sits at 7-2, Denver at 5-3 and us at 5-4.
Either way you look at it we want Baltimore to win the division. In that case I want them to go 4-0, take the division outright and make Pitts climb to 3-1 in the last 4 games much harder (here comes Buffalo).
No we look at the four 6-6 teams (Indy will join them after tonight).
Buffalo 6-6
TN 6-6
Colts 6-6
Houston 6-6
I would take two teams off right away. Colts will lose @ Oakland and Titans will lose @ KC which will give them at least 7 losses and will designate them to a spoiler role. And with the game Texans vs Colts next weekend one team will be eliminated from playoff contention and one will play for the AFC South. Though with 7 losses you are not mathematically eliminated but you need a gazillion scenarios just to be in contention with a possible four or five 9-7 teams with a gazillion tiebreaker scenarios.
Buffalo though could go 4-0. I penciled a loss in Buffalo already in. Their next three are all at home vs Steelers, Cleveland, Dolphins and closing out @ Jets.
In case of any tiebreaker scenario between more than 2 teams we would beat Buffalo based on division record (head-to-head is a tie before going to the conference.
Most likely scenarios:
Baltimore 10-6 going 3-1 (L @ NE, W vs Eagles, W @ Steelers, W @ Bengals)
Pittsburgh 9-7 going 2-2 (L @ Buffalo, W @ Bengals, W vs Cleveland; L vs Ravens)
* Baltimore wins division
Denver 9-7 going 1-3 (W @Titans, L vs NE, L @KC, L vs Raiders
Dolphins 10-6 going 3-1 (W vs Cardinals, W @ Jets, L @ Buffalo, W vs NE, )
Buffalo 10-6 going 4-0 (W vs Steelers, vs Cleveland, vs Dolphins, @ Jets)
One thing for sure: there will be a 10-6 team going to the playoffs and a 10-6 team (or multiple) staying home. 9-7 will not get you a playoff spot and an 11-5 record will almost assure you a playoff spot.
Scenarios for the AFC East:
If everything stays put the Pats win the division by at least one game (most likely 2 games). Buffalo and Dolphins are on track to compete for the last WC spot.
Games to watch for week 14 (I highlighted my wishful thinking):
Dec 12 Baltimore @ NE (a Pats win would help us vs Baltimore, a Baltimore win would help us vs Pittsburgh)
Dec 11 Pittsburgh @ Buffalo (a Buffalo win would help us vs Pittsburgh, a Pittsburgh win would help us vs Buffalo)
Dec 11 Cardinals @ Dolphins (no explanation needed)
Dec 11 Denver @ Tennessee (a TN loss would drop TN to 7 losses which is good, a Denver loss would help us in the long run)
- all other games have no immediate impact at this time.
If Baltimore can indeed beat the Pats another scenario would open up for us again: the AFC East. But for that we have to go 4-0 and NE has to drop one of their other two games: @ Denver or vs Jets. But that would be another scenario for another day.
