ckparrothead
Premium Member
People who completely disapprove of Brady Quinn being the Dolphins' pick, please feel free to click the "Back" button. I understand and respect your opinions about Quinn not being an NFL quarterback, I just disagree.
Credit to aquaman for initially breaching this subject in another thread (mentioned Miami could take Peterson at #9 and then try and pull an Eli-Rivers type trade).
There are a lot of draft scenarios that could play out two weeks from now.
The following would be the pre-conditions for the one I'm talking about:
1. Oakland chooses Jamarcus Russell. I've had Calvin Johnson to the Raiders since December, but I have to admit the Russell pick is gaining steam for them unless they find a QB right now. What I have said since December, is that knowing Al Davis, he's going to come to a contract agreement with two or three prospects, and let everyone guess which one it will be right up until the Commish walks to that podium. That, I believe you can count on. Will he pick Russell? Seems like a dead 50/50 chance nowadays.
2. Cleveland chooses Brady Quinn over Adrian Peterson. OK, so maybe I'm discounting the possibility that the Lions (or Bucs, very real trade up possibility) will take Quinn or Peterson...but I think I have reason to. There's a lot of speculation about Quinn vs. Peterson in Cleveland. I feel that they'll take Peterson when push comes to shove but MANY feel differently and I could be wrong. This is kind of a "what if you're wrong" scenario. So let's say they have a tough decision ahead of them, and when it comes right down to it, Randy Lerner insists that they take the quarterback.
3. Nobody from #4 to #8 takes Peterson. This is the biggest stretch of the three pre-conditions. Involves the Cardinals, Vikings, and Falcons passing up on Peterson, but also involves not having a team like the Bills or Packers jump up with a trade and grab him. Costs would be prohibitive up until around the Vikings' and Falcons' pick. But, the old rule of draft day is that runningbacks fall...for whatever reason. In this case Peterson may be the best pure runner to come out since Barry but one could argue that an upright running style on a 6'2" guy lends itself to exactly the kind of injuries that he faced in his sophomore and junior years.
At this point there are a number of things you do. When/if Peterson makes it to #8, that is when you start making your first phone calls. As I said, the Bills and Packers could both be interested in trading up. The Broncos may be interested, even with the big contract to Travis Henry. I tell you the Titans should be interested, with LenDale White coming to training program fit for Eddie Murphy's latest "it's funny when I wear 19 different fat suits" movie.
But, one of the first phone calls I would make though would be to the Cleveland Browns, even though they have already picked.
The reason I would be calling them is because of the risk that will have been alleviated when Adrian Peterson makes it to #9.
The Dolphins have likely already talked to the Browns about a trade up for Quinn, and I'm going to tell you right now Phil Savage is probably playing hard ball on the price tag. That kind of cost, moving up from #9 to #3, is pretty prohibitive, very hard to swallow. I've no doubt that Randy Mueller has resisted the idea.
On the trade value chart, the move is from Pick #9 (1350 pts) to Pick #3 (2200 pts). The spread (850 pts) is the equivalent of the #20 pick in the draft. HIGH cost.
But when it gets down to it, Randy Mueller could argue with Phil Savage that part of that built in cost is a risk factor. The reason why moves that far at the top are so expensive is because the further down you drop, the less chance you have of getting the "other" player you want.
If Peterson makes it to #9, the risk factor is gone.
I'll put it this way. Let's say you're Phil Savage. You want Quinn or Peterson and you are racking your brain about this decision. Peterson allows you to win a lot of ball games right now, in 2007. He also happens to be the best pure yard-gaining runner to come out in 20 years. But, he's got injury risk. Meanwhile Brady Quinn could be a franchise QB and we all know how hard those are to find, but you have to be at least a little uncomfortable with his not performing quite as well when he faced defenses that have good, fast athletes in the secondary like LSU. Your owner wants a quarterback, one way or the other.
Miami comes at you with a trade offer. But, dropping down from #3 to #9, basically the chances are you won't get EITHER player. So why do it, unless Miami is offering you a boat load of picks and maybe a player or two?
But then the draft comes rolling around again and the next time Miami talks to you, you've got Brady Quinn in your pocket and Miami has Adrian Peterson in their pocket.
The nature of the trade negotiation should have changed, in that scenario, because the element of risk has been alleviated.
Let's go back for a moment. How does Miami best take advantage of this situation IF the first three pre-conditions are satisfied?
Well, it'll take some planning ahead, to be honest.
Contact with the Browns prior to the draft is necessary. You must get them to set a market for a move from pick #9 to pick #3.
And with the price tag being predictably too high, what you ALSO have to do, is start negotiating with them on scenarios where Miami acquires the #5 or #6 pick in the draft, and then trades up even further. It would be rather obvious in the negotiations with Cleveland that the primary reason for the high price tag from #3 to #9 would be the fact that they can't expect to get Quinn or Peterson anymore.
So use that. You have to try and pin Savage into a corner before draft day, because you sure as heck aren't going to do it in 10 minutes on draft day. Start probing Cleveland on their price tags should Miami be able to move up from #9 to #6 or #5, where the Browns could expect to get Adrian Peterson.
What you're trying to do is get them to quantify their risk premium. At #5 overall they could basically be assured of getting Peterson...so pretend you have the Cards on the line, they're interested in the possibility of dropping down to #9, and you think you can get a decent price and use that as a staging point to move up to #3.
Once you've found out that price tag in advance, if the pre-conditions for all this happen and on draft day Peterson falls to #9, that is when you hammer Phil Savage.
Negotiating is about weapons, and leverage...your weapons are convention, logic...rationale.
On Phil Savage's side his primary weapon would be the trade value chart. The chart says he should get 850 points. His leverage is time, since he would have to think Miami would not risk taking Peterson at #9 and having a trade fall through...and if Miami does take Peterson then Savage has a new kind of leverage in knowing that Cleveland would be perfectly comfortable rostering Brady Quinn while Miami would be nervous as heck about having to sign Peterson to a contract to team up with Ronnie Brown.
In all likelihood though, prior to draft day, Savage himself probably already argued AGAINST the trade value chart, as I'm sure Cleveland's price tag for moving from #3 to #9 was probably more than the prescribed 850 points.
On Miami's side, they have a lot of weapons...if they laid this out correctly.
For one thing, through previous negotiation they should have found out how far down Cleveland would have been willing to drop and still feel comfortable getting their man. What they can do with this information is demonstrate the risk premium that Cleveland was demanding with their previous offer, and then to show how the circumstances themselves have eliminated the risk premium...because Miami now has Cleveland's man in their pocket.
For another thing, the circumstances have made Peterson more valuable than he would have been, had Cleveland picked him at the #5 or #6 pick...let alone the #3 pick. This is, of course, because at the #9 pick you probably have to pay Peterson HALF the money you would have otherwise had to pay him. That's a big premium.
For leverage, Miami would have the other side of the aisle. An Adrian Peterson doesn't fall down to #9 without having the teams that really want a runner clamor for him...such as the Packers, Bills, and Titans. Convince Cleveland that their negotiating need be done with Miami and only Miami, because one way or the other, Adrian Peterson is going at #9.
With the leverage and the carefully laid-out weapons...my speculation is that Miami would be able to get Brady Quinn out of Cleveland for the #40 pick in the draft.
This may seem high to some Dolphins fans, and low to some Browns fans. It needs to be high because Savage cannot allow the perception that he got completely raped. Miami doesn't have leverage strong enough to get him to lose face. The #40 pick in the draft is worth 500 points on the chart.
To Browns fans, this would seem low...as the traditional chart guides that they should be getting the equivalent of the #20 pick, not the #40 pick. But, the fact of the matter is the chart guides about 500 points of spread between the #3 and #5 picks in the draft...and had you eliminated risk, the Browns probably would have asked that Miami trade up to the #5 pick and THEN trade up to the #3 pick.
When it gets down to it I believe that Savage wants Peterson, but that his owner Randy Lerner wants a quarterback. Armed with the #35 and #40 picks in the second round, I think he could have a decent chance of convincing Lerner to take the guy that helps them win now, the guy that Savage in all honesty probably has rated higher than Brady Quinn.
Miami gets their man, Cleveland gets their man, and Miami had to give up only one of its second round picks to complete the thing.
This is a possibility that I would say Randy Mueller should be prepping for, because there's a small chance it could play out.
At the very least the possibility of Adrian Peterson falling to #9 has to have been discussed in many ways by this staff to figure out what they could do, where they could trade, etc...because Peterson is one of the few commodities that could become available at #9 that other teams would be inclined to trade for.
Credit to aquaman for initially breaching this subject in another thread (mentioned Miami could take Peterson at #9 and then try and pull an Eli-Rivers type trade).
There are a lot of draft scenarios that could play out two weeks from now.
The following would be the pre-conditions for the one I'm talking about:
1. Oakland chooses Jamarcus Russell. I've had Calvin Johnson to the Raiders since December, but I have to admit the Russell pick is gaining steam for them unless they find a QB right now. What I have said since December, is that knowing Al Davis, he's going to come to a contract agreement with two or three prospects, and let everyone guess which one it will be right up until the Commish walks to that podium. That, I believe you can count on. Will he pick Russell? Seems like a dead 50/50 chance nowadays.
2. Cleveland chooses Brady Quinn over Adrian Peterson. OK, so maybe I'm discounting the possibility that the Lions (or Bucs, very real trade up possibility) will take Quinn or Peterson...but I think I have reason to. There's a lot of speculation about Quinn vs. Peterson in Cleveland. I feel that they'll take Peterson when push comes to shove but MANY feel differently and I could be wrong. This is kind of a "what if you're wrong" scenario. So let's say they have a tough decision ahead of them, and when it comes right down to it, Randy Lerner insists that they take the quarterback.
3. Nobody from #4 to #8 takes Peterson. This is the biggest stretch of the three pre-conditions. Involves the Cardinals, Vikings, and Falcons passing up on Peterson, but also involves not having a team like the Bills or Packers jump up with a trade and grab him. Costs would be prohibitive up until around the Vikings' and Falcons' pick. But, the old rule of draft day is that runningbacks fall...for whatever reason. In this case Peterson may be the best pure runner to come out since Barry but one could argue that an upright running style on a 6'2" guy lends itself to exactly the kind of injuries that he faced in his sophomore and junior years.
At this point there are a number of things you do. When/if Peterson makes it to #8, that is when you start making your first phone calls. As I said, the Bills and Packers could both be interested in trading up. The Broncos may be interested, even with the big contract to Travis Henry. I tell you the Titans should be interested, with LenDale White coming to training program fit for Eddie Murphy's latest "it's funny when I wear 19 different fat suits" movie.
But, one of the first phone calls I would make though would be to the Cleveland Browns, even though they have already picked.
The reason I would be calling them is because of the risk that will have been alleviated when Adrian Peterson makes it to #9.
The Dolphins have likely already talked to the Browns about a trade up for Quinn, and I'm going to tell you right now Phil Savage is probably playing hard ball on the price tag. That kind of cost, moving up from #9 to #3, is pretty prohibitive, very hard to swallow. I've no doubt that Randy Mueller has resisted the idea.
On the trade value chart, the move is from Pick #9 (1350 pts) to Pick #3 (2200 pts). The spread (850 pts) is the equivalent of the #20 pick in the draft. HIGH cost.
But when it gets down to it, Randy Mueller could argue with Phil Savage that part of that built in cost is a risk factor. The reason why moves that far at the top are so expensive is because the further down you drop, the less chance you have of getting the "other" player you want.
If Peterson makes it to #9, the risk factor is gone.
I'll put it this way. Let's say you're Phil Savage. You want Quinn or Peterson and you are racking your brain about this decision. Peterson allows you to win a lot of ball games right now, in 2007. He also happens to be the best pure yard-gaining runner to come out in 20 years. But, he's got injury risk. Meanwhile Brady Quinn could be a franchise QB and we all know how hard those are to find, but you have to be at least a little uncomfortable with his not performing quite as well when he faced defenses that have good, fast athletes in the secondary like LSU. Your owner wants a quarterback, one way or the other.
Miami comes at you with a trade offer. But, dropping down from #3 to #9, basically the chances are you won't get EITHER player. So why do it, unless Miami is offering you a boat load of picks and maybe a player or two?
But then the draft comes rolling around again and the next time Miami talks to you, you've got Brady Quinn in your pocket and Miami has Adrian Peterson in their pocket.
The nature of the trade negotiation should have changed, in that scenario, because the element of risk has been alleviated.
Let's go back for a moment. How does Miami best take advantage of this situation IF the first three pre-conditions are satisfied?
Well, it'll take some planning ahead, to be honest.
Contact with the Browns prior to the draft is necessary. You must get them to set a market for a move from pick #9 to pick #3.
And with the price tag being predictably too high, what you ALSO have to do, is start negotiating with them on scenarios where Miami acquires the #5 or #6 pick in the draft, and then trades up even further. It would be rather obvious in the negotiations with Cleveland that the primary reason for the high price tag from #3 to #9 would be the fact that they can't expect to get Quinn or Peterson anymore.
So use that. You have to try and pin Savage into a corner before draft day, because you sure as heck aren't going to do it in 10 minutes on draft day. Start probing Cleveland on their price tags should Miami be able to move up from #9 to #6 or #5, where the Browns could expect to get Adrian Peterson.
What you're trying to do is get them to quantify their risk premium. At #5 overall they could basically be assured of getting Peterson...so pretend you have the Cards on the line, they're interested in the possibility of dropping down to #9, and you think you can get a decent price and use that as a staging point to move up to #3.
Once you've found out that price tag in advance, if the pre-conditions for all this happen and on draft day Peterson falls to #9, that is when you hammer Phil Savage.
Negotiating is about weapons, and leverage...your weapons are convention, logic...rationale.
On Phil Savage's side his primary weapon would be the trade value chart. The chart says he should get 850 points. His leverage is time, since he would have to think Miami would not risk taking Peterson at #9 and having a trade fall through...and if Miami does take Peterson then Savage has a new kind of leverage in knowing that Cleveland would be perfectly comfortable rostering Brady Quinn while Miami would be nervous as heck about having to sign Peterson to a contract to team up with Ronnie Brown.
In all likelihood though, prior to draft day, Savage himself probably already argued AGAINST the trade value chart, as I'm sure Cleveland's price tag for moving from #3 to #9 was probably more than the prescribed 850 points.
On Miami's side, they have a lot of weapons...if they laid this out correctly.
For one thing, through previous negotiation they should have found out how far down Cleveland would have been willing to drop and still feel comfortable getting their man. What they can do with this information is demonstrate the risk premium that Cleveland was demanding with their previous offer, and then to show how the circumstances themselves have eliminated the risk premium...because Miami now has Cleveland's man in their pocket.
For another thing, the circumstances have made Peterson more valuable than he would have been, had Cleveland picked him at the #5 or #6 pick...let alone the #3 pick. This is, of course, because at the #9 pick you probably have to pay Peterson HALF the money you would have otherwise had to pay him. That's a big premium.
For leverage, Miami would have the other side of the aisle. An Adrian Peterson doesn't fall down to #9 without having the teams that really want a runner clamor for him...such as the Packers, Bills, and Titans. Convince Cleveland that their negotiating need be done with Miami and only Miami, because one way or the other, Adrian Peterson is going at #9.
With the leverage and the carefully laid-out weapons...my speculation is that Miami would be able to get Brady Quinn out of Cleveland for the #40 pick in the draft.
This may seem high to some Dolphins fans, and low to some Browns fans. It needs to be high because Savage cannot allow the perception that he got completely raped. Miami doesn't have leverage strong enough to get him to lose face. The #40 pick in the draft is worth 500 points on the chart.
To Browns fans, this would seem low...as the traditional chart guides that they should be getting the equivalent of the #20 pick, not the #40 pick. But, the fact of the matter is the chart guides about 500 points of spread between the #3 and #5 picks in the draft...and had you eliminated risk, the Browns probably would have asked that Miami trade up to the #5 pick and THEN trade up to the #3 pick.
When it gets down to it I believe that Savage wants Peterson, but that his owner Randy Lerner wants a quarterback. Armed with the #35 and #40 picks in the second round, I think he could have a decent chance of convincing Lerner to take the guy that helps them win now, the guy that Savage in all honesty probably has rated higher than Brady Quinn.
Miami gets their man, Cleveland gets their man, and Miami had to give up only one of its second round picks to complete the thing.
This is a possibility that I would say Randy Mueller should be prepping for, because there's a small chance it could play out.
At the very least the possibility of Adrian Peterson falling to #9 has to have been discussed in many ways by this staff to figure out what they could do, where they could trade, etc...because Peterson is one of the few commodities that could become available at #9 that other teams would be inclined to trade for.
