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Optimal Scenario

ckparrothead

ckparrothead

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Wishful thinking at its finest folks! Actually this just goes to show you how depressing this all is that the AFC is so lopsided right now. We win out and we could still just be the #6 seed. YEOWCH.

First things first, gotta win the division. For that to happen, the Dolphins need to win out...meaning we beat the Pats next week then the Eagles, Jets, and Bills. The Pats, need to drop a game against the Jets or Bills, which gives us the division record tiebreak.

Next week the Titans and Colts go head to head. Both beat us and therefore hold the tiebreak when we're at 4 losses. If we win the division then we need the division leader to to have TWO more losses. That means that both the Titans AND the Jags need to take two losses. 4 losses to spread between both teams. One loss will be dealt out next week no matter what. Three left. Among the possibilities then, are Titans-Bills, Titans-Texans, Titans-Bucs, Colts-Falcons, Colts-Broncos, Colts-Texans. We need the winner of the Titans-Colts game to take TWO subsequent losses, and the loser of the game to take one. The most likely candidates to me, are the Titans-Bucs, Titans-Bills, and Colts-Broncos.

The funny part about all this (aside from how much blatant unbelievable LUCK we need to get the bye week), is that over the next few days (including this last monday night) we have to (had to) become at various points, Jets and Bills fans. We need the Bills to upset the Patriots AND the Titans, but not us. We needed the Jets to upset the Titans AND the Patriots, but not us.

How confusing is THAT.

Then again, heck we're 5-1 on the road and 3-3 at home heading into a must-win road game against the Pats.

If we manage to beat the Patriots...why the heck do we WANT homefield advantage?
 
ck, that just occured to me... looking at our road record compared to our home record I was thinking of why we'd even want to play at home, and I came up with only one reason: We've been winning on the road but not on the road in the cold.... might be adventagious not to have to play up north in jan.
 
I guess more realistically we should probably hope that, being the #6 seed, the Patriots do end up getting the bye week, and the Colts end up winning the division.

That means we get to play the Colts in the wildcard round in Indianapolis, a place where we've arguably had more success playing against the Colts than at home here in Miami. Not only that, but the Colts as the favorite last year in the wildcard round got blown up by the Jets...and in general the Colts with Peyton Manning do not have a good playoff history (nor does Tony Dungy). The Colts didn't manhandle us the way that the Titans did. So maybe we oughtta hope more for this more realistic scenario. That way we get to go to the second round of the playoffs and play the Chiefs in Arrowhead.
 
At least traveling to Arrowhead for the 2nd round, I don't think it would be nearly as cold and/or snowy as it would be in New England.
 
Originally posted by ckparrothead

First things first, gotta win the division. For that to happen, the Dolphins need to win out...meaning we beat the Pats next week then the Eagles, Jets, and Bills. The Pats, need to drop a game against the Jets or Bills, which gives us the division record tiebreak.
Click to expand...


If we beat the Patriots & win out we will have the division tie breaker over the Patriots regardless of if they lose to Buffalo or the Jets. If they lose us & the Jags while we win out we have the division.
 
That's true... I highly doubt that we get homefield advantage anyhow. We may beat the Patsies... but then we have the Jets and the Bills to worry about. They worry me because playing against a division rival with nothing to loose and a chance to ruin our playoff hopes is a dangerous scenario. We'll see though, won't we?
 
Originally posted by ckparrothead
At least traveling to Arrowhead for the 2nd round, I don't think it would be nearly as cold and/or snowy as it would be in New England.
Click to expand...

It probably wouldn't be as "snowy" but KC can be one of the coldest places in the U.S. when it gets a little windy. I lived in Oklahoma when I was in the Army (same general hemisphere and terrain as KC) and there is nothing like the cold coupled with the biting wind that accompanies it out there. No matter what you're wearing it just cuts right through and tries to freeze you to death!
 
I would love to win the AFC East but it will be an uphill battle for the Fins and the Pats are sittin pretty right now...regardless...

the Fins still need to beat the Pats Sunday...even if we don't win the AFC East. This will be a confidence booster and momentum builder and a statement to all!!!

We have a good shot to get a wildcard berth and need to stay ahead of the Broncos and Ravens.

Go Fins!!!
 
I would love to play Indy in the first round. The Dolphins have won 5 straight games at the RCA Dome, and they should have beaten Indy in November.
 
Re: Re: Optimal Scenario

Originally posted by SMadison29
If we beat the Patriots & win out we will have the division tie breaker over the Patriots regardless of if they lose to Buffalo or the Jets. If they lose us & the Jags while we win out we have the division.
Click to expand...

That's right: if we win out, it doesn't matter which other team the Pats lose to; Jaguars are fine.

One interesting thing to consider: If Miami wins out, there will be six games played in the final three weeks, any one of which could improve Miami's playoff position. So to move from the #2 wildcard to the #1 or to the AFC East title, we'd need only one of six games to go 'our way' (besides Miami's four, of course).

To get a bye, we would need three of six to go our way (not the same six though).

I've updated the Playoff Watch thread to reflect Monday's Jets-Titans game. Later today or tomorrow (probably) I'll post what Miami needs in order to secure a wildcard after two more wins. The Jets upset means there's some re-figuring to do.
 
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