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Let me preface my pick with this - I have serious doubts that teams behind us will offer us enough to trade down. I think some are hot for a couple of players, but I just don't see them giving up enough and I think Saban will not compromise just to trade down.
Second, this assumes Aaron Rodgers will sign with the 49ers. If he doesn't reach a contract deal with them, the 49er pick is up in the air and they could wreak havoc throughout the draft. All bets are off.
So, our first pick will be - Alex Smith. Yeah, yeah, I know - we need a big play RB and a WR. No doubt about that. But, there are several reasons I think we'll go this route - assuming Smith is there and we can't trade:
1) I really don't think Saban has confidence in Feeley. And, he may wonder when he'll get another shot at a QB with this much potential.
2) RB's and WR's available are good - but they are a bit easier to find than QB's. As Saban said, the QB position is the most important on offense b/c he has the ball in his hands every play.
3) Smith's positives - shows superior intelligence on and off the field (obtained a B.A. in Econ in two years). This is perhaps the most important factor - next to poise - that a QB can have. He has a decent arm. He's got a tall frame (6'4, 217 at the Combine) that will (and needs to) carry extra weight - another 10-15 lbs. He has very good feet with decent speed (not a McNabb or Vick, but good enough). Smith is only 20 years old!!! As his strength grows, his arm will get stronger. He'll be around a while. The upside is very impressive. Look at how much some players improve from their sophomore year to their senior year (Like Campbell at Auburn - night and day). If Smith improves that much the next two years, he could be a huge star.
4) Smith's negatives - a big target who needs to gain weight and strength to take the pounding in the NFL. He has mostly worked out of the shotgun (but I saw him work some over center earlier in the year). And, he didn't throw many bombs in college - he'll need to do that in Linehan's offense. That said, he has the ability to overcome all of these. It's not like he's 6'0 and can't make himself grow. All of these are learnable or fixable (putting muscle on his frame).
Of course, the problem with predicting draft choices is that we are not privy to all the information on the draft boards of teams. Who knows how high Saban has Smith rated? Smith might be head and shoulders at the top of the Dolphin draft board. Or, he may be pretty much equal with the other 8 players or so at the top of the board. Or, there may be some other guy (one of the RB's or WR's) clearly on top of his board. So, I'm not going to go out on a limb and say this is absolute. But, given the limited information we have, I think this is the way we will go, if no trade happens. This is just my best guess (not necessarily the guy I want us to pick - I'm trusting in Saban regardless - unless he picks Maurice Clarett).
Second, this assumes Aaron Rodgers will sign with the 49ers. If he doesn't reach a contract deal with them, the 49er pick is up in the air and they could wreak havoc throughout the draft. All bets are off.
So, our first pick will be - Alex Smith. Yeah, yeah, I know - we need a big play RB and a WR. No doubt about that. But, there are several reasons I think we'll go this route - assuming Smith is there and we can't trade:
1) I really don't think Saban has confidence in Feeley. And, he may wonder when he'll get another shot at a QB with this much potential.
2) RB's and WR's available are good - but they are a bit easier to find than QB's. As Saban said, the QB position is the most important on offense b/c he has the ball in his hands every play.
3) Smith's positives - shows superior intelligence on and off the field (obtained a B.A. in Econ in two years). This is perhaps the most important factor - next to poise - that a QB can have. He has a decent arm. He's got a tall frame (6'4, 217 at the Combine) that will (and needs to) carry extra weight - another 10-15 lbs. He has very good feet with decent speed (not a McNabb or Vick, but good enough). Smith is only 20 years old!!! As his strength grows, his arm will get stronger. He'll be around a while. The upside is very impressive. Look at how much some players improve from their sophomore year to their senior year (Like Campbell at Auburn - night and day). If Smith improves that much the next two years, he could be a huge star.
4) Smith's negatives - a big target who needs to gain weight and strength to take the pounding in the NFL. He has mostly worked out of the shotgun (but I saw him work some over center earlier in the year). And, he didn't throw many bombs in college - he'll need to do that in Linehan's offense. That said, he has the ability to overcome all of these. It's not like he's 6'0 and can't make himself grow. All of these are learnable or fixable (putting muscle on his frame).
Of course, the problem with predicting draft choices is that we are not privy to all the information on the draft boards of teams. Who knows how high Saban has Smith rated? Smith might be head and shoulders at the top of the Dolphin draft board. Or, he may be pretty much equal with the other 8 players or so at the top of the board. Or, there may be some other guy (one of the RB's or WR's) clearly on top of his board. So, I'm not going to go out on a limb and say this is absolute. But, given the limited information we have, I think this is the way we will go, if no trade happens. This is just my best guess (not necessarily the guy I want us to pick - I'm trusting in Saban regardless - unless he picks Maurice Clarett).
