Going into the draft I was certain that we would draft one of the big guards early. Looking at PFF stats I noticed that about 75% teams over the last three years that ranked in the top 10 for rush offense (yards per game, ability to pick up 3rd & 4th down, etc) made playoffs while teams in the bottom 10 were closer to 20-30% making playoffs. So logically I was hoping for a strong OG to help our rush game achieve more success. Well, that didn't happen.
So watching Sunday's game versus the Browns it all made more sense. Own 3rd down. Make 3rd down very difficult for the opponent and easier for us. We held the Browns to a league best 7% conversion on 3rd down and came away ourselves with a 7th best 50% conversion (one dropped by Gibson).
Here's the numbers:
Over the last three years teams in the 10 ten of offenses converting 3rd down were twice as likely to make playoffs over teams in the bottom 10. Extend drives, score points, win games. The Packers are consistently in this category (Hi there Philbin). Teams who could stop 3rd down were around 25% more likely to make playoffs. Interestingly there was quite an overlap of teams in both categories.
The Dolphins have done ok over that span, but as we know ok has kept us at mediocrity. Hence our pickups-
Brandon Gibson was tops in the league last year for targets converting to 1st down or TD at 57%+. He was 14th in the league on 3rd down targets over 7 yards resulting in a 1st down. Already he is tied for 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down receptions for a 1st down (5)
Wallace helps too. He was tied for 9th in the NFL on 3rd down catches for less than 3 yards that resulted in a 1st down.
Doin Jordan. He can obviously fill a nice void at pass rush opposite Wake. Back up teams on 1st and 2nd to make the conversion harder then get at them on 3rd down.
Two rookie corners - same thing, make the play last longer with good coverage. Let the sack happen.
Wheeler and Ellerbe - Stuff the run, make sacks. Longer down and distance.
Sturgis - actually make FGs when drives are extended
So I think this is the direction we are going in. Chunk plays are fine and dandy but we will be winning games via turnovers, stopping 3rd down, and converting our own 3rd down. Looking at the numbers and personnel makes me excited to see the rest of the season...from a non homer objective standpoint. We'll see Sunday I suppose. Thanks for reading.
So watching Sunday's game versus the Browns it all made more sense. Own 3rd down. Make 3rd down very difficult for the opponent and easier for us. We held the Browns to a league best 7% conversion on 3rd down and came away ourselves with a 7th best 50% conversion (one dropped by Gibson).
Here's the numbers:
Over the last three years teams in the 10 ten of offenses converting 3rd down were twice as likely to make playoffs over teams in the bottom 10. Extend drives, score points, win games. The Packers are consistently in this category (Hi there Philbin). Teams who could stop 3rd down were around 25% more likely to make playoffs. Interestingly there was quite an overlap of teams in both categories.
The Dolphins have done ok over that span, but as we know ok has kept us at mediocrity. Hence our pickups-
Brandon Gibson was tops in the league last year for targets converting to 1st down or TD at 57%+. He was 14th in the league on 3rd down targets over 7 yards resulting in a 1st down. Already he is tied for 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down receptions for a 1st down (5)
Wallace helps too. He was tied for 9th in the NFL on 3rd down catches for less than 3 yards that resulted in a 1st down.
Doin Jordan. He can obviously fill a nice void at pass rush opposite Wake. Back up teams on 1st and 2nd to make the conversion harder then get at them on 3rd down.
Two rookie corners - same thing, make the play last longer with good coverage. Let the sack happen.
Wheeler and Ellerbe - Stuff the run, make sacks. Longer down and distance.
Sturgis - actually make FGs when drives are extended
So I think this is the direction we are going in. Chunk plays are fine and dandy but we will be winning games via turnovers, stopping 3rd down, and converting our own 3rd down. Looking at the numbers and personnel makes me excited to see the rest of the season...from a non homer objective standpoint. We'll see Sunday I suppose. Thanks for reading.