Patriots 7.5 Point Favorites???? | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Patriots 7.5 Point Favorites????

J. David Wannyheimer said:
Hey listen, I like what we're doing and I like us to win 10 games, but in Foxboro, I need to see them do it before I'm gonna believe it.
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Agree completely. The last time the Pats were 1-2 and embarrassed on national TV, they went and blew out the undefeated Bengals on national TV. We’re getting that Brady this week. I don’t like our chances this week.

My comment was specific to that poster, who has verbally-fluffed Brady and the Pats on every single thread about them so far.
 
People keep saying hes gona be pissed next week but he looked pissed last night and the week before but it didnt help. Js lol
 
Dbest said:
People keep saying hes gona be pissed next week but he looked pissed last night and the week before but it didnt help. Js lol
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A lot of Brady's wins aren't all Brady. It's the coaching, players around him and in some cases weaker opponents. Right now it's showing more than ever Brady isn't good enough to do it all by himself.
 
FINSItalia said:
Because of our team speed expect the grass to be about a foot tall and for them to run the sprinklers all night before the game
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That's actually illegal now. The NFL inspects the field early like 7am, if its not short enough they have to cut it again. Crazy amount of work.
 
it doesn't matter what the spread is. You win the games out on the field. We can win this damn game.
 
The early line has dropped -1.5. That means the sharps are not buying it. Doesn't mean we win. but they think it will be closer than the spread. By the way, I have a strange feeling we may have a legit shot to win this game - haven't been able to say that in a long time, especially in Foxboro. Hope reality doesn't shatter my perception.. I think most of our skill positions are better than the Patriots(save the QB and TE). I just hope the DL injuries don't come back and bite us in the butt. Forgot to mention, as always there is the real possibility that the refs screw us in this game. We have all seen it before, so don't say it can't happen.
 
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Going down. Now -6 1/2 at many offshore sites, and primarily -7 EVEN in Las Vegas.

That means give -120 instead of -110 to take the +7 points. Adjusted juice due to more money on Miami at +7 than on New England at -7
 
On paper, it looks like Miami is a better team than New England through three games.

- According to the SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM, Miami is a good team (7.1 rating) while New England is the worst team in the NFL (-18.5 rating). The SRS isn't a super in-depth tool, but it's been around forever and is typically pretty reliable for showing the relative strengths of football teams.

- In passing offense, edge to Miami. Miami is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt (2nd in the NFL), has a passer rating of 128.7 (3rd), and has 8 passing touchdowns (T-3rd). New England is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt (22nd), passer rating 93.9 (14th) and has 6 passing touchdowns (T-10th).

Worth noting that New England has not been prolific throwing the ball, but has still produced touchdowns despite a 1-2 record.

- In passing defense, Miami is giving up 7.6 yards per attempt (T-19th), but allowing a league-best passer rating of 65.6. Miami has allowed just 2 TDs (T-1st) and has scored 7 interceptions (T-1st). The Patriots allow 7.1 yards per attempt (T-13th), opposing passer rating 93.9 (17th), have given up 7 passing TDs (T-24th), and have 3 interceptions (T-8th).

Miami's pass defense has allowed yardage, but has been stingy in the red zone and has a lot of interceptions. I'll take that trade, personally. New England's pass defense has been average.

- Miami and New England have both been marginal running the ball. Both teams are tied for 17th in the league with a 4.0 YPC average.

- Miami is 2nd in run defense at 3.3 yards per attempt, while New England is tied for 22nd with a 4.7 Y/A against. Miami has allowed two rushing TDs to New England's one.

- Miami is averaging 25 points per game, New England only 19.

- Miami has allowed only 52 points in three games, while the Patriots have allowed 77 points.



Looking at everything, I think the big difference between the Patriots and the Dolphins is big plays. Miami has created big plays on offense, while New England has not. NE's longest passing play: 30 yards. Longest rushing play: 15 yards. Miami's also been intercepting the football at a ludicrous rate.

I think if this game was anything but "at the Patriots," we would have a much different feeling about it.
 
J. David Wannyheimer said:
On paper, it looks like Miami is a better team than New England through three games.

- According to the SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM, Miami is a good team (7.1 rating) while New England is the worst team in the NFL (-18.5 rating). The SRS isn't a super in-depth tool, but it's been around forever and is typically pretty reliable for showing the relative strengths of football teams.

- In passing offense, edge to Miami. Miami is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt (2nd in the NFL), has a passer rating of 128.7 (3rd), and has 8 passing touchdowns (T-3rd). New England is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt (22nd), passer rating 93.9 (14th) and has 6 passing touchdowns (T-10th).

Worth noting that New England has not been prolific throwing the ball, but has still produced touchdowns despite a 1-2 record.

- In passing defense, Miami is giving up 7.6 yards per attempt (T-19th), but allowing a league-best passer rating of 65.6. Miami has allowed just 2 TDs (T-1st) and has scored 7 interceptions (T-1st). The Patriots allow 7.1 yards per attempt (T-13th), opposing passer rating 93.9 (17th), have given up 7 passing TDs (T-24th), and have 3 interceptions (T-8th).

Miami's pass defense has allowed yardage, but has been stingy in the red zone and has a lot of interceptions. I'll take that trade, personally. New England's pass defense has been average.

- Miami and New England have both been marginal running the ball. Both teams are tied for 17th in the league with a 4.0 YPC average.

- Miami is 2nd in run defense at 3.3 yards per attempt, while New England is tied for 22nd with a 4.7 Y/A against. Miami has allowed two rushing TDs to New England's one.

- Miami is averaging 25 points per game, New England only 19.

- Miami has allowed only 52 points in three games, while the Patriots have allowed 77 points.



Looking at everything, I think the big difference between the Patriots and the Dolphins is big plays. Miami has created big plays on offense, while New England has not. NE's longest passing play: 30 yards. Longest rushing play: 15 yards. Miami's also been intercepting the football at a ludicrous rate.

I think if this game was anything but "at the Patriots," we would have a much different feeling about it.
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Very good stuff here. Really appreciate your time.
 
J. David Wannyheimer said:
On paper, it looks like Miami is a better team than New England through three games.

- According to the SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM, Miami is a good team (7.1 rating) while New England is the worst team in the NFL (-18.5 rating). The SRS isn't a super in-depth tool, but it's been around forever and is typically pretty reliable for showing the relative strengths of football teams.

- In passing offense, edge to Miami. Miami is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt (2nd in the NFL), has a passer rating of 128.7 (3rd), and has 8 passing touchdowns (T-3rd). New England is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt (22nd), passer rating 93.9 (14th) and has 6 passing touchdowns (T-10th).

Worth noting that New England has not been prolific throwing the ball, but has still produced touchdowns despite a 1-2 record.

- In passing defense, Miami is giving up 7.6 yards per attempt (T-19th), but allowing a league-best passer rating of 65.6. Miami has allowed just 2 TDs (T-1st) and has scored 7 interceptions (T-1st). The Patriots allow 7.1 yards per attempt (T-13th), opposing passer rating 93.9 (17th), have given up 7 passing TDs (T-24th), and have 3 interceptions (T-8th).

Miami's pass defense has allowed yardage, but has been stingy in the red zone and has a lot of interceptions. I'll take that trade, personally. New England's pass defense has been average.

- Miami and New England have both been marginal running the ball. Both teams are tied for 17th in the league with a 4.0 YPC average.

- Miami is 2nd in run defense at 3.3 yards per attempt, while New England is tied for 22nd with a 4.7 Y/A against. Miami has allowed two rushing TDs to New England's one.

- Miami is averaging 25 points per game, New England only 19.

- Miami has allowed only 52 points in three games, while the Patriots have allowed 77 points.



Looking at everything, I think the big difference between the Patriots and the Dolphins is big plays. Miami has created big plays on offense, while New England has not. NE's longest passing play: 30 yards. Longest rushing play: 15 yards. Miami's also been intercepting the football at a ludicrous rate.

I think if this game was anything but "at the Patriots," we would have a much different feeling about it.
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The Dolphins have plenty of unsustainable stats going on. That's why I have not fully joined in on the hoopla, although obviously 3-0 is great.

There are bounce indications all over the place, if not necessarily this week but certainly over time. We have scored more points than our offensive production suggests, and in particular we have allowed far fewer points than our defensive numbers suggest.

It equates to a Yards Per Point Differential that is second in the league and by far the greatest change of any team from 2017 to 2018. We were -3.9 last season to +8.8 this season. That net shift of +12.7 is surreal and almost never seen, even after only 3 games. The Browns have something like a +9 shift right now from terrible to mostly even while Arizona likewise has a 9 point move from -3 in 2017 to a horrendous -12 so far this year.

Dolphins at 8.8 are second behind the Rams, who currently have 11.7 or some obscene number. I have followed this stat since 1984. It was a pet stat of Las Vegas handicapper Mike Lee, who put out a weekly tout sheet called Mike Lee's Moneymaker and thoughtfully included the yards per point offensively and defensively of every NFL and major college team. He didn't have the differential but it was simple to compile by simply looking at the two numbers. Differential categories weren't well known in that era but slowly gained popularity. I started mentioning differential numbers on Las Vegas radio in October 1988.

Every season the league leader in this YPP Differential category is somewhere around +5, to +6.5 on the high end if some team has a freakish season, like Seattle several years ago.

So you can see the Miami +8.8 is in a rare stratosphere and will not survive

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-point-margin
 
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