Its not just them. Vegas odds for the Phins to win the AFC East are like 8-5, while the Patriots are like 5-12.
I'll just say it pretty simple. New QB acquisitions can work. They can work out beautifully, in fact. But, very RARELY, do they work out like that in the first year.
Remember when Dave Wannstedt came down on the critics that wanted him to pick up Brad Johnson or Trent Green in 2001? After 2001 was over, Johnson had like a 78 QB rating in Tampa and Green had like a 71 QB rating in KC.
But after 2002, Green was one of the better QBs in the NFL (with a 93 QB rating) and Johnson just won the Super Bowl in Tampa with a similar 93 QB rating.
Same thing with Mark Brunell in Washington. He goes over there in 2004 for a 3rd rounder, had a terribly 64 QB rating. This year? QB rating of 86, they go to the playoffs, and Santana Moss turns into a super duper stud.
Matt Hasselbeck, acquired 2001...first year QB rating of 71. Then he has a QB rating of 88 in both of the next two years.
Kerry Collins, first year in NY has a 73 rating, next year an 83 rating.
Jake Delhomme, never really got a shot in NO, goes to Panthers in 2003 and has a 80 rating, then in 2004 has an 87 rating.
Jon Kitna, first year with Cincy has a horrible 61 rating. Second year jumps up to a 79. Third year jumps to an 87.
Heck, even Jay Fiedler his first year with us had a 74 rating, second year jumped to a 80 rating, and third year jumped to an 85 rating.
Rich Gannon, goes from Washington to KC in 95 and has a 77 rating. Next year, a 92 rating. Goes from KC to Oakland in 98 and has an 86 rating, next year has a 92 rating, then 95 and 97.
This is why I consider QB a position of investment, not a position where you acquire finished products. It just seems to me there's an extensive history showing that veteran QB acquisitions take a year before you get your team tracked the way you want them to play.
There are of course exceptions...Bledsoe had his best year with Buffalo in 2002 the first year acquired after spending basically all of 2001 on the Patriots' bench. Vinny Testeverde went from Tampa to Cleveland and had his best year there in his first year, then funny enough went from Baltimore to the Jets later in his career and had his best season as a pro in his first year with the Jets...then downhill from there. Jake Plummer had his best year so far in Denver in the first year acquired.
So personally, my expectations for Daunte in 2006 aren't that high. I severely doubt he'll have a QB rating in the high 80's or 90's. I'm hoping for around 83 or 85. But in 2007 I bet that rating is gonna shoot up about a full 10 points or more.
