PC's tout service... 2008

[PressCoverage]

Goal: 52.5%... or, beat the 11/10

I'll offer 20 units over three games per week, usually in a 8-7-5 ratio...

Feel free to offer your own selections, but for accountability sake, please use up-to-date lines listed here: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds

Week 1:

(WIN)
8 units -- Tennessee +3 vs. Jacksonville: The wrong team is getting points here, in my opinion, and they're at home opening the season. The Titans are better in the trenches and no worse than even everywhere else, except for QB. Still, I think the Titans' front seven will wreak havok on the Jags' unsettled O-line, and stifle the visitors' running game. The hosts feature solid special teams, and a QB who isn't flashy, but just wins. Titans win, outright.

(LOSS)
7 units -- Indianapolis -9.5 vs. Chicago: A lot of books have this number at 10 and 10.5, but 9.5 or lower is the only play if you can find it. When everyone is done stroking the Pats and Chargers as AFC favorites, perhaps they'll eventually remember Indy. Arguably the best secondary in football. Look for 4+ sacks on a Chicago offense that could be the NFL's worst. John St. Clair vs. Dwight Freeney... Enough said. Peyton will perform just fine after surgery, even without Scott and Saturday up front.

(WIN)
5 units -- Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit: Two awful teams, I know. I found the Birds at +4.5 on a betting site, and jumped on it. My power ratings say Atlanta should be -1 at worst at home. This is a value bet, and lacks confidence with a rookie QB in the mix. However, I like the new regime in Atlanta, and I think their defense can get all over Kitna in their own building. Detoit shouldn't be giving points to anyone, especially on the road, and certainly not a field goal or more.

Other games I like, but will pass on: Miami +3.5, Carolina +9; Seattle +1.5.

Record: 2-1, +6 units.

 

[PressCoverage]

Week 1: 2-1... +6u

Week 2: no picks provided... (forgot, missed 1 p.m.)
Week 3: no picks provided... (slacked again, forgot, went to Gillette the night before)

Week 4:

7 units:
Arizona (+1.5) at New York Jets: The Jets are home, but only one of these teams made the flight across the country this week, and it was not the visitors. Reports have the Cards staying out east this week after last week's hard-fought loss at Washington. Jets' NT Kris Jenkins is hurting with a bad back. He should play, but their run defense starts and stops with him. I like this Birds team, and I like Warner, Fitz and Boldin to carve up a Jets pass defense that looks in disarray. Favre is gimping too. Risky pick, but ya gotta trust your power numbers.

EDIT: I don't like what Baldinger just said about the ADVERSE affects of the Cards staying away from home all week. I'll subtract 1 unit and add it to the Pack below.

7 units:
Houston (+7) at Jacksonville: Most places have this down to 7 already, but I fortunatley got it at 7.5 on Thursday. Houston has won 3 of the last 4 meetings outright, and I still don't believe Jax's offense is very good. Houston gave a closer performance vs. a strong Tennessee team last week than the score indicated. Unproven Texans -- a bottom-5 YPPT team -- could still throw a clunker, but I believe there's value here and they're due. No Reggie Nelson for Jags, too.

6 units:
Green Bay (+1) at Tampa Bay: This number came down from +3, but I still like a modest play on the slightly better team, coming off a tough home loss to the best team in football. Tampa comes off an emotional, tough road win where they had to pass 67 times.

Others games considered: Pit. -5.5; S.F. +5.