Percentage chance that the top Qb selected turns out to be the best player | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Percentage chance that the top Qb selected turns out to be the best player

dlockz

dlockz

Hall Of Famer
Joined
Sep 6, 2004
Messages
52,028
Reaction score
3,954
Age
58
Location
Tampa Fl
Since 1980 until 2004 I researched all drafted Qb's and these I the results I came up with.

Oddswise your chance of getting the most successful QB still reside in the top rated Qb. Basically a 50/50 chance. If you dont get one of the top two Qb's the odds go down significantly of getting the best qb in a particular class. You could reduce the number one overall by one if you choose to call Marino the best of his class of which I would agree but it doesnt really change the results and would give the first Qb at the sixth overall positional player. 2004 could also change at some point if Eli Manning or Phillip Rivers overtake Big Ben. Some choices were judgement calls but basically 1st overall would still be about 50 percent and 2nd overall at 25 percent. 3rd slightly below 10 percent. The chances are very low of getting the best Qb in a particular draft after the first three choices. 15 percent for any qb drafted past the top three.

I analized every draft class since 1980 and my subjective results for which qb was most successful by overall choice by position.

1st overall 14 times 56 percent
2nd overall 7 times 28 percent
3rd overall 2 times 8 percent
7th overall 1 time 4 percent
13th overall 1 time 4 percent
 
Man I hate it when people analize every draft.

Couldn't resist. :p

Of course, some QB draft classes rock and some plain suck. I suppose according to your analysis we are to either hope last year's QB class was plain awesome or draft Ryan.
 
oasis said:
Man I hate it when people analize every draft.

Couldn't resist. :p

Of course, some QB draft classes rock and some plain suck. I suppose according to your analysis we are to either hope last year's QB class was plain awesome or draft Ryan.
Click to expand...

Well the class could still be awesome and the top quarterback turns out to be Russel or Quinn which is fairly likely. If we are going to draft a qb any year the odds are with the top prospects to be the most successful. This had nothing to do with how good any class was just which Qb in each class turned out. 1983 was a class for the ages, three hall of famers in one draft and all taken in the first round.
 
QB's have the resale of a Honda even if a particular QB bombs with one organization hes almost always traded for good value to another team.

Brett Farve come to mind......
 
Thanks for the research. This is why the rebuttle of "Ryan isn't worth it, take Flacco or Henne in the 2nd" doesn't hold water.

And T - however many seconds until a Beck supporter mentions the rare exception of Ryan Leaf...
 
I wish the draft was here already so we didn't have to see people politicing their choice on these boards.
 
I think if you look at all the teams Qb's last year, you will find something close to 50% were not first round picks. Just a guess off the top of my head.
 
NorFlaFin said:
QB's have the resale of a Honda even if a particular QB bombs with one organization hes almost always traded for good value to another team.

Brett Farve come to mind......
Click to expand...

????what?????....Brett Favre didn't "bomb" in Atlanta. He was expendable because in 91 ATL went 10-6 and Chris Miller was vote to the pro bowl. The Falcons thought they were on their way up with the team they had.
Now if I would want to present some information that might fly in the face of this thread topic (and using Favre's situation), I could say:
Brett Favre was drafted in the 2nd rd, 33rd overall, and he was the 3rd QB taken. He was drafted behind other notable QBs - (1st rounders) Dan McGwire and Todd Marinovich, and 1 spot ahead of Browning Nagle.
John Beck was drafted in the 2nd rd, 40th overall, and he was the 4th QB taken. He was drafted behind JaMarcus Russell, and Brady Quinn in the 1st rd and Kevin Kolb in the 2nd.
Basically, it's still a crapshoot.
 
NJFINSFAN1 said:
I think if you look at all the teams Qb's last year, you will find something close to 50% were not first round picks. Just a guess off the top of my head.
Click to expand...


Was not debating what round a qb was picked , just that the top rated Qb 50 percent of the time is the best qb in any particular draft.
 
late again said:
????what?????....Brett Favre didn't "bomb" in Atlanta. He was expendable because in 91 ATL went 10-6 and Chris Miller was vote to the pro bowl. The Falcons thought they were on their way up with the team they had.
Now if I would want to present some information that might fly in the face of this thread topic (and using Favre's situation), I could say:
Brett Favre was drafted in the 2nd rd, 33rd overall, and he was the 3rd QB taken. He was drafted behind other notable QBs - (1st rounders) Dan McGwire and Todd Marinovich, and 1 spot ahead of Browning Nagle.
John Beck was drafted in the 2nd rd, 40th overall, and he was the 4th QB taken. He was drafted behind JaMarcus Russell, and Brady Quinn in the 1st rd and Kevin Kolb in the 2nd.
Basically, it's still a crapshoot.
Click to expand...

There have been 2 qb's that were the third qb taken that were best in thier class. Roth and Favre although in time Rivers or Manning could supplant Roth, so not sure how that flys in the face of the thread. As for last years class, there is no clear evidence of the best player in that draft, if forced to pick one after a year it would be the fifth QB drafted but its way too early.
 
when you panic and waste value by picking a number ten WAY before you should, it doesn't "increase" the chances of hitting it big time. It just means you THREW AWAY all that value. You can parade all these wonderful facts all day long but they mean nothing because ryan is simple not that good. NONE of his college numbers, no matter how you twist them indicate ryan is any better than the kid we ALREADY have.
 
Whitedolphin54 said:
Marino was the 6th picked in 83 :winkwink:

The point I was making was that Ryan isn't necessarily the best that's all shag. Good research all the same :up:
Click to expand...


Marino is the exception not the rule and people can argue that Elway was the best in that draft. That draft had three hall of famers and is far from the norm. Nobody in thier right mind would have chosen Marino as the top pick since he threw 17 tds and 23 int his senior year.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom