Nailed it! I get tied of the debates over how good/bad Miami will be. No one knows. No one knows because this team is full of questions that won't be answered until at least game 8. I've said for a while, my win prediction is 4 to 10. The range sounds ridiculous, but makes perfect sense judging by how the questions are answered.Not bad, but certainly and justifiably not optimistic either. Basically the whole thing is a big ?
Lol.........pressure on 39% of his drop backs. Sounds like a job for Patches O'houlihan "If you can dodge a wrench you can dodge a defender".
Jermon Bushrod and Kraig Urbik are far from Pro Bowlers, but even slightly below-average play at this point is a massive upgrade there. Miami had the lowest-graded run-blocking offensive line in 2015 even though they barely ran the ball. If they can all stay healthy, there is a chance that the offensive line could even be a strength by year end.
Earl Mitchell and Jordan Phillips were completely ineffective against the run at nose tackle.
In 2015 though, Tannehill started to even look shaky in the things he used to do well. His downfield accuracy wasn’t nearly the same as it had been in the past.
Lets keep it real, from a personnel standpoint, the team remains largely unchanged. Alonso is the biggest upgrade on the entire team (and he hasn't been healthy for two years) but all other positions are kind of a wash from last season.
We are basically relying on health and coaching to turn a 6 win team into a 10 win team. It is not impossible but expecting it is very premature at this point.
Bah....I didn't see regression last year in Tannehill....I saw progression in his deep ball.
PFF is so numbers driven they miss the big picture....ignore the crumbling O-line and the failures of Lazor and Philbin.
Tannehill still had respectable numbers and an improved long ball...once Parker started getting in the flow it started looking good.
Are there some question marks?...of course...but there is reason for optimism.
I usually agree with 100% of your posts Kdawg, but I think we have changed a bit from last year personnel wise.
1) Kiko in for Sheppard.
2) Devante Parker for a full year (it was mainly just Landry last year).
3) At Safety, we were weak outside of Reshad. IAQ can play.
4) Jenkins was hurt all last year. Yes, it's the same guy, but he broke out the year before when he was healthy. Maybe he can go back to that.
5) Wake was hurt last year, and despite the critics, OV was not that good. Wake is back (hopefully he can stay healthy), and Mario is better than OV...that can't even be disputed.
6) Grimes had a bad year last year, so did Maxwell so we are even there (even though Maxwell apparently played well during latter part of the season per reports).
7) Tunsil will start, and Dallas Thomas will be on the bench - HUGE personnel upgrade here. HUGE.
8) Arian Foster. I thought he was done (and he still may be), but he has looked damn good so far. When healthy, he is no slouch, and with Philbin gone....Gase will actually let him run & catch.
9) However, the biggest thing is the change in coaching personnel though as you mentioned. Philbin would not run the ball - Gase will. Philbin did not throw to his tight ends - Gase will. Philbin had no balls - Gase does. Philbin would not let Tanny audible - Gase will. Philbin sucked - Gase doesn't. Coaching alone should give us 2 wins.
This team should win at least 9 games.
My three additional wins (over last year) come from better coaching, better O-line play, and a healthy defensive line, and Brady being out in our first game against the Pats.
However, we could easily go 5 - 11 if it takes the offense 8 weeks to gel, which is what I've been hearing lately from the experts/masses. Sounds like a huge excuse for the team to accept failure to me, but who am I.
To me it isn't what has changed, but what is unknown. Obviously, Gase, VJ, CC. Are these guys the REAL coaches we hope, or are they Philbin 2.0. Williams and Maxwell - will they be their previous top talent selves or the 2015 versions? Albert, Pouncey, James, Ajayi, Foster, Parker, Wake, KA, Jenkins - will these guys play most/all of '16 or will injuries bite early? Who will the OGs be and how will they play? Who is the #2 CB and how will he respond? Jordan or Mitchell? What of Culliver? And, yes, it WILL take 6-8 games for the OL and D back end to gel. How will Tannehill do with his audible freedom? That's life in the NFL. That's a LOT of unknowns and just the ones I thought of on the fly.We see the same things . . . Alonso and health and coaching. I like IAQ, but he just turned a full time starter during his fourth year last season and he is more of a SS, even though Vance wants more of an interchangeable set of safeties. We'll see if he can be the Lou Delmas of this defense. I know Tunsil will be great, but maybe not year one at LG . . . But yea better than Thomas (i hope). Jenkins, Parker, Wake, James, Albert, Foster, Maxwell, Misi, Alonso, Howard, Ajayi, Pouncey . . . All hurt now or within the last season . . . Guys gotta stay healthy. When I say largely unchanged, currently the offense is returning the same starting 5 on the line, top 2 te's, qb, 3 of the top 4 wrs and 2 of the top 3 rbs. Lamar Miller/Rishard Matthews for Arian Foster/Laronte Carroo. Tunsil should win a job as well and depth on the line is vastly improved. Defensively OV/Grimes for Williams/Maxwell . . . Hopefully we have upgraded there, I think we upgraded there, but not betting the house that we have. Alonso and to a lesser extent IAQ are upgrades but one is still a major health risk and the other is still inexperienced. Coaching has to be better and has to get more out of a roster that still contains 75% of last years starters.