PFT : Jags Interested In Wright / Phinz Have Dibs | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

PFT : Jags Interested In Wright / Phinz Have Dibs

Just Win Baby said:
Why would the Jags need him? They're more than set at DT.
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Same as us, injuries.. and they will only have enough cash to resign one of the 2 (Henderson, Stroud)...
 
Wagon Circler said:
PFT is nonsense.
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Just curious what you consider "deep" into the playoffs? 2nd round? conference championship game? superbowl?

Nasty
 
Drafting Wright might be a good idea in more ways than one...

This just occured to me and I haven't seen anyone else bring this up but, if we draft Wright with a high second round pick in the supplemental draft, there's always the possibility that the second round pick that we would lose in next years' draft may be a lot lower than the one we use now.

Let's say we finish 8-8 to make it simple. That would put us choosing somewhere close to 16th in the second round. The lowest we can choose right now, is 11th so, we gain ......

On second thought, that really doesn't mean we gain anything we just use whatever second round pick we have....

nm....:(
 
ckparrothead said:
We have about a 14% chance of getting the top pick in every round of the supplemental draft. Whether or not we pick him depends on how high the coaches are willing to draft him.

I would bet a lot of money that the Phins would not draft him in the 2nd round. So, if any team offers up their 2nd rounder, my guess is he's gone. If he gets to the 3rd round, I think Saban would pony up.
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CK, you probably expressed your opinion about this guy before, but I have no idea where it would be. What's your take on him? Desperation aside, would he be worth a 3rd rounder and maybe help us this year at DT? Thanks in advance for any thoughts!

Steve
 
I say offer a third for him and if we get him we get him--If we dont we keep our draft picks for next year.. Incidently are there any decent DB's up for grabs
 
inFINSible said:
This just occured to me and I haven't seen anyone else bring this up but, if we draft Wright with a high second round pick in the supplemental draft, there's always the possibility that the second round pick that we would lose in next years' draft may be a lot lower than the one we use now.

Let's say we finish 8-8 to make it simple. That would put us choosing somewhere close to 16th in the second round. The lowest we can choose right now, is 11th so, we gain ......

On second thought, that really doesn't mean we gain anything we just use whatever second round pick we have....

nm....:(
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Actually, it could be a net value gain. If we end up with a mid-late round pick and the talent level at that point is clearly less, then we not only gained in value, but got the use of him for an extra year . Of course, the key question is how good is this guy and where would he rank right now in the draft. You can't project where he could/would go in next years' draft; what's he worth now?
 
And the issue with projecting his worth now is that you will find it extremely difficult in this arena to gauge where he would have been drafted in the regular draft. Right now, his value in the supplemental draft is hyper sensitive to team needs. If you think of free agency and the draft as like a game of musical chairs, someone is always left standing without a chair at certain positions. Manuel Wright has the luxury of being considered a fairly decent talent, at a position where there are some teams left standing without a chair either due to miscalculation, bad luck, or injury.

I personally would not try to rationalize any kind of net value gain by drafting him. We do not know what record we will end up with (it could be as bad as this year, who really knows). We don't know what the pick we will be giving up is truly worth, because we don't know who will be in next year's draft, and more importantly we don't know the value of the players who are set to be in that draft because they still have a whole season of college football to play and then lots of poking and prodding to go through before they establish their value.

There are so many unknowns involved in drafting a guy in the supplemental draft. You have to approach it conservatively just to be safe. You're trading a 2006 draft pick whose selection order you do not know, in a round whose basic value you do not yet know, for a guy whose 2005 regular draft value you do not truly know but whose value is likely biased higher by the amount of demand and lack of supply. It's a bad equation.

To me, I think it is pushing it even to draft the guy in the 3rd round.

As for Manuel Wright's talent level, he was a very highly recruited kid coming out of high school, has fantastic physical measurables, unknown speed (but rumored to be very good in 20 yard split), but he's not very bright, has been accused of being lazy in conditioning and taking plays off, and is wildly inconsistent in his playmaking ability.
 
Actually, it could be a net value gain. If we end up with a mid-late round pick and the talent level at that point is clearly less, then we not only gained in value, but got the use of him for an extra year .
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Actually, this is a notion that I have come to generally disagree with on a very basic level...regarding the time value of NFL players.

The idea, popularized around here when Jimmy Johnson first gave a future 1st round pick for the 2nd rounder we used to get Pat Surtain, is that a future draft pick is only worth a present draft pick one round lower than the future one. In other words, if you want someone to give you a 2nd rounder now, you have to give a 1st rounder in the next draft, or if you want a 3rd rounder now (ehem, Morlon Greenwood), you have to give away a 2nd rounder in the future.

This, to me, is blatant short-sightedness. Everyone is biased toward the present, the future is now, what have you done for me lately, wants to draft guys that can help us NOW not some time in the distant future. Why do you think some people are always against drafting a QB here in Miami? What people fail to register is that this short-sightedness, emphasis on the here and now, actually translates to high expectations in ANY GIVEN YEAR of football. Meaning, as Saban says, the best way to satisfy the fans is to make your team the best you can in a long-term way from year in and year out. What people fail to realize, is that 3 years from now is not going to be any less important than 1 year from now, when we get to 3 years from now.

If I were a GM, I would consistently fish for SUCKERS that will trade future higher round draft picks for current picks of lower value. To me, it's like arbitrage. Eventually, the higher value will just pile and pile and you will consistently build a portfolio of draft picks with higher value than the rest of the league, because you're adding value simply by giving people one year's worth of a player when they fail to realize that every year counts, including future years. And, if you'll notice, this is a strategy that Bill Belichick has employed ever since joining New England. He traded a pick this year for a higher future pick, I believe, and I know that he's done it in the past. Heck, wasn't New England the team that gave us the pick for Morlon Greenwood?
 
ckparrothead said:
Actually, this is a notion that I have come to generally disagree with on a very basic level...regarding the time value of NFL players.

The idea, popularized around here when Jimmy Johnson first gave a future 1st round pick for the 2nd rounder we used to get Pat Surtain, is that a future draft pick is only worth a present draft pick one round lower than the future one. In other words, if you want someone to give you a 2nd rounder now, you have to give a 1st rounder in the next draft, or if you want a 3rd rounder now (ehem, Morlon Greenwood), you have to give away a 2nd rounder in the future.

This, to me, is blatant short-sightedness. Everyone is biased toward the present, the future is now, what have you done for me lately, wants to draft guys that can help us NOW not some time in the distant future. Why do you think some people are always against drafting a QB here in Miami? What people fail to register is that this short-sightedness, emphasis on the here and now, actually translates to high expectations in ANY GIVEN YEAR of football. Meaning, as Saban says, the best way to satisfy the fans is to make your team the best you can in a long-term way from year in and year out. What people fail to realize, is that 3 years from now is not going to be any less important than 1 year from now, when we get to 3 years from now.

If I were a GM, I would consistently fish for SUCKERS that will trade future higher round draft picks for current picks of lower value. To me, it's like arbitrage. Eventually, the higher value will just pile and pile and you will consistently build a portfolio of draft picks with higher value than the rest of the league, because you're adding value simply by giving people one year's worth of a player when they fail to realize that every year counts, including future years. And, if you'll notice, this is a strategy that Bill Belichick has employed ever since joining New England. He traded a pick this year for a higher future pick, I believe, and I know that he's done it in the past. Heck, wasn't New England the team that gave us the pick for Morlon Greenwood?
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Very nice post CK.I agree .I was coming to the same conclusion as I was reading your post.If I had the luxury of job security I would do as you suggest.Look for suckers who are willing to part with first day picks in order to
draft someone now .After a couple of years we would be in the enviable draft position that the Pats and Eagles have had lately.
 
Philly makes me nervous though. They probably are very confident they will have a low 1st rounder in 2006 so they could use their 1st rounder and screw us since our 1st rounder will be top 15 atleast. The Jags don't bother me. The Bengals do since they have no DTs who are special prospects. I hope we get this kid but he's not worth next year's 1st and may not be worth next year's 2nd. Ther are too many blue-chip OTs coming out next year. It's almost unbelievable; D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Marcus McNeil (who knows a thing or two about blocking for Mr. Ronnie Brown), Eric Winston (injuries are the only concern I know of), Jon Scott from Texas, and Saban's own Andrew Whitworth. And this is not counting possible juniors or players who come out of nowhere to be top 20 picks. But meanwhile I'm not sure how the DT/NT crop is looking for the '06 draft.
 
Whitedolphin54 said:
What well known players have been drafted through the supplemental draft in the past
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The last one taken I believe was Tony Hollings with the Texans spending a 2nd rounder (they owned 2 second rounders) and his college career was marred by injuries as is his NFL career so far. He has not been worth a 2nd round pick.

I can't think of any recent successful supplemental draft picks.
 
DolphanD said:
The last one taken I believe was Tony Hollings with the Texans spending a 2nd rounder (they owned 2 second rounders) and his college career was marred by injuries as is his NFL career so far. He has not been worth a 2nd round pick.

I can't think of any recent successful supplemental draft picks.
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Thx Dolphan, i say dont spend any more than a third--our D line is ok without him-we are already wandering how D Bowens and Holliday are going to fit in now
 
Whitedolphin54 said:
What well known players have been drafted through the supplemental draft in the past
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I remember Brian Bosworth and Steve Walsh been drafted in the supplemental draft.I am sure there are others who names escape me.
 
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