PFT : Jags Interested In Wright / Phinz Have Dibs

[Geforce]

What well known players have been drafted through the supplemental draft in the past

Two of the best supplemental drafts picks with ties to South Florida are Bernie Kosar and Cris Carter.

 

[Minnphin]

Say we pick him up and go 3-13 next year. Can we trade for a lower pick in that round and give that one up? Like if we use a third on him and go 3-13. Can we trade our first pick in the fourth round and change to whichever team wins the superbowl for the last pick in the third and then forfeit that pick?

 

[Emskirch]

What people fail to realize, is that 3 years from now is not going to be any less important than 1 year from now, when we get to 3 years from now.

This has to be one of the best football statements I have read on these boards.

Period.

 

[Roman529]

Does anyone know if the NFL Network will be showing the supp draft on July 14th? I know it is done by e-mail but will the cameras be there or will there be any coverage? :confused:

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Actually, this is a notion that I have come to generally disagree with on a very basic level...regarding the time value of NFL players.

The idea, popularized around here when Jimmy Johnson first gave a future 1st round pick for the 2nd rounder we used to get Pat Surtain, is that a future draft pick is only worth a present draft pick one round lower than the future one. In other words, if you want someone to give you a 2nd rounder now, you have to give a 1st rounder in the next draft, or if you want a 3rd rounder now (ehem, Morlon Greenwood), you have to give away a 2nd rounder in the future.

This, to me, is blatant short-sightedness. Everyone is biased toward the present, the future is now, what have you done for me lately, wants to draft guys that can help us NOW not some time in the distant future. Why do you think some people are always against drafting a QB here in Miami? What people fail to register is that this short-sightedness, emphasis on the here and now, actually translates to high expectations in ANY GIVEN YEAR of football. Meaning, as Saban says, the best way to satisfy the fans is to make your team the best you can in a long-term way from year in and year out. What people fail to realize, is that 3 years from now is not going to be any less important than 1 year from now, when we get to 3 years from now.

If I were a GM, I would consistently fish for SUCKERS that will trade future higher round draft picks for current picks of lower value. To me, it's like arbitrage. Eventually, the higher value will just pile and pile and you will consistently build a portfolio of draft picks with higher value than the rest of the league, because you're adding value simply by giving people one year's worth of a player when they fail to realize that every year counts, including future years. And, if you'll notice, this is a strategy that Bill Belichick has employed ever since joining New England. He traded a pick this year for a higher future pick, I believe, and I know that he's done it in the past. Heck, wasn't New England the team that gave us the pick for Morlon Greenwood?

Brilliant post, CK, one of the best I've seen on FinHeaven especially the final two paragraphs. The Rick Spielman apologists should absorb and swallow hard.

I think I have an advantage verifying the basic logic via my 15+ years in Las Vegas, holding down regular jobs but also betting on sports all year. In the early years I was a ****y 20-something kid, merely isolating games with distinct talent or matchup edges and wagering big on them. I had ups and downs but never sustained anything. Meanwhile, the so-called local wise guys were intent on value, a word that made me sick. If a number at one book was distinctly different than anyplace else, they would wager even if they had no opinion and didn't know a damn thing about the team or individual. I thought it was simpleton idiocy and said so on a radio show I was on.

Then in '94 I met two guys who explained the math to me, that even slight advantages could net huge profit if wagered on frequently enough. The keys, as they put it, were volume and edge. Volume was no good without an edge. An edge was no good without volume. I finally embraced the philosophy in '95 and have had 10 straight winning years. Nothing awesome but plenty comfortable. Let's say I like the Spurs tonight, but walk into a sportsbook with a bizarre favorable line on the Pistons, either a pointspread, a money line or a prop, etc. I will walk up and wager on it without second thought, value overcoming subjectivity. In the long run no question I will come out ahead.

Likewise, in team sports it doesn't matter if Rick Spielman is convinced A.J. Feeley is the second coming of Johnny U. Surrendering a #2 is suicidal. As you noted the astute value traders like Bellichick make moves for future picks every year, an example of volume and edge. In Spielman we had volume and deficit. It can't be understated how vital it was to expel him before further damage was inflicted.

 

[CrunchTime]

Say we pick him up and go 3-13 next year. Can we trade for a lower pick in that round and give that one up? Like if we use a third on him and go 3-13. Can we trade our first pick in the fourth round and change to whichever team wins the superbowl for the last pick in the third and then forfeit that pick?

I was studying this possibility and I read an article which suggested we would only have to give up the lowest pick if we had two picks in the same round.

I was going to start a thread suggesting we should purposefully take advantage of this loophole but I could not find any confirming information if it works that way.

If anyone knows I would appreciate this info.

 

[ckparrothead]

I was studying this possibility and I read an article which suggested we would only have to give up the lowest pick if we had two picks in the same round.

I was going to start a thread suggesting we should purposefully take advantage of this loophole but I could not find any confirming information if it works that way.

If anyone knows I would appreciate this info.

The answer is no, you can't. The moment we draft Wright, we forfeit OUR pick in that round of the next draft. It isn't ours to trade anymore. And, if we've already traded that pick to another team, I don't believe we can use it to pick Wright in the supplemental draft. In other words, if we trade our 3rd rounder tomorrow, for someone else's 3rd rounder, we're not eligible to select Wright in the 3rd of the supplemental draft.

 

[CrunchTime]

The answer is no, you can't. The moment we draft Wright, we forfeit OUR pick in that round of the next draft. It isn't ours to trade anymore. And, if we've already traded that pick to another team, I don't believe we can use it to pick Wright in the supplemental draft. In other words, if we trade our 3rd rounder tomorrow, for someone else's 3rd rounder, we're not eligible to select Wright in the 3rd of the supplemental draft.

That wasnt my point.If we had two same round picks before we selected Wright for instance we would only have to give up the lower of the two picks.

 

[ckparrothead]

That wasnt my point.If we had two same round picks before we selected Wright for instance we would only have to give up the lower of the two picks.

That's not true. My point was that no matter what, we give up OUR pick in the round. As in, it is gone, right then and there after the supplemental draft. It doesn't matter if we've traded for another team's pick or not. If we still have our pick in that round at the time of the supplemental draft, we give it up. If we don't have it at the time of the supplemental draft, I don't believe we're allowed to select the player in that round, even if we have another team's pick in that round.

 

[MrClean]

What well known players have been drafted through the supplemental draft in the past

The Chargers' Jamal Williams was a 2nd rounder in the supplemental draft a few years ago. He has turned out to be worth the pick IMO.

 

[TRUDOLFAN54]

JAGS ENTER FRAY FOR WRIGHT
=========================

Add one more team to the list of franchises interested in USC defensive tackle Manuel Wright, who'll be eligible for selection in the NFL supplemental draft on July 14.

Wright, we're told, will visit the Jags on Wednesday and Thursday before heading to Miami for a Friday visit. Wright also has visited the Eagles and the Bengals.

As we've previously reported, the Dolphins plan to select Wright in the supplemental draft.

And of the teams interested in Wright, the Fins will have dibs -- if they pull the trigger in the same round as the Eagles, Jags, and/or Bengals. Although the process is based on a weighted lottery (with the worst team from a year ago getting 32 balls in the hopper, the next worst team getting 31, and so on), the draft order is split between teams with six or fewer wins from the prior season -- and all other teams.

So the Fins will be lumped together with the Browns, the Titans, the Raiders, the Giants, the Redskins, the Cowboys, the Lions, the Bears, the Bucs, the Cardinals, and the 49ers. In any given round, then, there's no way that Miami will fall below Philly, Cincy, or Jacksonville.

Still, there's definitely a poker-table aspect to this venture. Each round lasts ten total minutes, and the franchises exercise their picks -- if any -- via e-mail during the same ten-minute period. After the e-mails are submitted, the league office determines whether two or more teams have selected the same guy, and the league office then awards the player to the highest team in the lottery rankings.

Thus, teams who claim to be interested in Wright could be bluffing in order to prompt another team to burn a high-round 2006 draft pick. And teams who haven't expressed an interest might be keeping quiet in the hopes of pouncing at the right time.

Because many believe Wright to be a third-rounder or a fourth-rounder, our guess is that someone will put in a claim for him in round two. It would be a shock, frankly, if a team burns a 2006 first-round pick on Wright. However, we don't rule out a first-round move by a team projected to be picking low in round one next year.

The team that picks Wright will get extra money added to their 2005 rookie pool for the purposes of signing him. Nevertheless, the team will be required to fit all 2005 draft picks -- and all other players -- under the current cap year.
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PFT isn't the most credible source, but I like reading their stuff anyway. Wright is one player we really could use since we're so thin at DT, and the way they make it sound, we have one of the the best chances to take him....

PHINZ RULE!!!

DAMN DUDE THANX NEVER UNDERSTOOD HOW THAT WORKED NOW I KNOW.

 

[SWS84]

Very interesting everyone, thanks for the thoughts! After seeing what Saban can do in the draft, I really want us to go into the draft next year with a full compliment. That said, I trust Saban's judgement and if we snag him, then I think it is for good reason. I only hope we don't give up a 3rd or higher.

Steve