Fin Thirteen
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Play Action passes are on the rise. The percentage of PA plays per game for the NFL as a whole is consistently rising. In certain quarters, it’s rising way above the average. It’s considered by some to be the most effective play in pro football (for more info, see Bill Barnwell’s interesting article here http://grantland.com/features/nfl-c...ss-strategy-run-game-screen-pass-play-action/). The teams who are using it a lot seem to mostly be found in the playoffs and beyond. So, even if you’re the median team (unless you’re coached by Mike Sherman), you will almost certainly be scheming more PA this year than you did the last year. There is no evidence to say that you should reduce or stay pat, if you’re league-average. Only on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down is it more or less constant at a low level of 5% across the league (for pretty obvious reasons). On 1[SUP]st[/SUP] and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] downs, this year you will run more PA if you are able to, book it.
For PA to be successful you need a serious run game. Virtually all good PA teams do. To have a serious run game you need an RB that teams fear enough to encourage bodies toward the box and you need a decent o-line. You may or may not use a FB/HB. In 2013 the teams who used PA the most include Seattle (34%), Philly, Minnesota, Carolina, SF and Washington. Only maybe Carolina doesn’t have a blue-chip RB in that list. Of those teams, only Minny didn’t make the playoffs, (because Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel). Denver, using Moreno at RB, were 9[SUP]th[/SUP].
Miami, with a run game that wasn’t totally awful but which nobody respected, was 25[SUP]th[/SUP] out of 32 teams in PA percentage (14%). Ironically, Miami showed the greatest improvement in outcomes across the league when we did run PA, but Mike Sherman. Tannehill was more or less born for the PA play and you don’t have to search far online or on Finheaven to find multiple professional and amateur opinions to that effect, not to mention the evidence captured in digital glory.
Clearly, Philbin and the brains trust agreed in the offseason. They have on their books a QB who thrives in play action, they brought in the QB coach from the Philly system that played the second highest percentage of play action passes in 2013 (and who is a Chip Kelly acolyte, with the resultant heavy leaning on read option, misdirection and PA).
They then drafted the RB that teams respected enough to place Denver at 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in PA percentage. That’s the Denver Broncos, you know those guys with the QB that throws it on 4[SUP]th[/SUP] and inches when leading by 65 points. Teams bit on Moreno being the carrier enough for Denver to fool LBs that Peyton Manning wasn’t really going to throw it. For those who think Moreno is not all that, just think about that for a moment and what it achieves for your offense.
Then Miami invested in the line enough to have something resembling a cohesive unit, capable of the ZBS. It’s a work in progress, esp in the run game, but we seem to be headed in the right direction. Realistically though, it’s pass pro where you need to make big strides for the actual PA thrown to be effective, especially as they typically aren’t quick releases.
So, what can we expect in 2014? Well, in 2013 we ran PA only 14% of the time. When we did run it, Miami was a FULL 2 YARDS PER PLAY better than non-play action passes. Our DVOA was 51% HIGHER with PA, which was top of the league in terms of variance over non-PA passes. Philly, where Lazor was on the staff, ran it more than double what Miami did, at 31%. Denver, with Moreno, ran it 25% of the time.
I think it’s not unreasonable to assume that we’ll double our number of PA passes, or close to it. If you imagine how much better PA will work with Moreno in house and a line that can pass-pro, we should expect a dramatic improvement in yards per play.
Is that important for us? Hell yeah.
We had one of the best redzone efficiencies in the NFL last year (before we added Moreno and Landry and improved the line). When we get down there, we score. Our problem has been getting down there. Our problem has been our rinky-dink Mike Sherman WCO inching down the field with all the fluidity of Dimitri Patterson’s groin. Too few chunk plays, too many 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs, too many unconverted 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs.
If we can add a yard or two per play (before we even talk about the other wrinkles in the offense, just through PA), that would be huge for us. That could be the golden ticket to 25 points per game, which Philbin correctly identified as the target you need to have a chance of being in the playoffs.
We showed little in preseason, but even then I’d guess we ran more PA than we did last season. I don’t have a PFF or Football Outsiders account to check if they recorded it. When the real bullets are flying, expect us to feast heavily on PA. If we do, the offensive turnaround that has been promised for what seems like a decade, might actually happen. It won't be because we lack the pieces.
For PA to be successful you need a serious run game. Virtually all good PA teams do. To have a serious run game you need an RB that teams fear enough to encourage bodies toward the box and you need a decent o-line. You may or may not use a FB/HB. In 2013 the teams who used PA the most include Seattle (34%), Philly, Minnesota, Carolina, SF and Washington. Only maybe Carolina doesn’t have a blue-chip RB in that list. Of those teams, only Minny didn’t make the playoffs, (because Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel). Denver, using Moreno at RB, were 9[SUP]th[/SUP].
Miami, with a run game that wasn’t totally awful but which nobody respected, was 25[SUP]th[/SUP] out of 32 teams in PA percentage (14%). Ironically, Miami showed the greatest improvement in outcomes across the league when we did run PA, but Mike Sherman. Tannehill was more or less born for the PA play and you don’t have to search far online or on Finheaven to find multiple professional and amateur opinions to that effect, not to mention the evidence captured in digital glory.
Clearly, Philbin and the brains trust agreed in the offseason. They have on their books a QB who thrives in play action, they brought in the QB coach from the Philly system that played the second highest percentage of play action passes in 2013 (and who is a Chip Kelly acolyte, with the resultant heavy leaning on read option, misdirection and PA).
They then drafted the RB that teams respected enough to place Denver at 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in PA percentage. That’s the Denver Broncos, you know those guys with the QB that throws it on 4[SUP]th[/SUP] and inches when leading by 65 points. Teams bit on Moreno being the carrier enough for Denver to fool LBs that Peyton Manning wasn’t really going to throw it. For those who think Moreno is not all that, just think about that for a moment and what it achieves for your offense.
Then Miami invested in the line enough to have something resembling a cohesive unit, capable of the ZBS. It’s a work in progress, esp in the run game, but we seem to be headed in the right direction. Realistically though, it’s pass pro where you need to make big strides for the actual PA thrown to be effective, especially as they typically aren’t quick releases.
So, what can we expect in 2014? Well, in 2013 we ran PA only 14% of the time. When we did run it, Miami was a FULL 2 YARDS PER PLAY better than non-play action passes. Our DVOA was 51% HIGHER with PA, which was top of the league in terms of variance over non-PA passes. Philly, where Lazor was on the staff, ran it more than double what Miami did, at 31%. Denver, with Moreno, ran it 25% of the time.
I think it’s not unreasonable to assume that we’ll double our number of PA passes, or close to it. If you imagine how much better PA will work with Moreno in house and a line that can pass-pro, we should expect a dramatic improvement in yards per play.
Is that important for us? Hell yeah.
We had one of the best redzone efficiencies in the NFL last year (before we added Moreno and Landry and improved the line). When we get down there, we score. Our problem has been getting down there. Our problem has been our rinky-dink Mike Sherman WCO inching down the field with all the fluidity of Dimitri Patterson’s groin. Too few chunk plays, too many 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs, too many unconverted 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs.
If we can add a yard or two per play (before we even talk about the other wrinkles in the offense, just through PA), that would be huge for us. That could be the golden ticket to 25 points per game, which Philbin correctly identified as the target you need to have a chance of being in the playoffs.
We showed little in preseason, but even then I’d guess we ran more PA than we did last season. I don’t have a PFF or Football Outsiders account to check if they recorded it. When the real bullets are flying, expect us to feast heavily on PA. If we do, the offensive turnaround that has been promised for what seems like a decade, might actually happen. It won't be because we lack the pieces.