Playing from Behind: The Story of the Joe Philbin-led Dolphins | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Playing from Behind: The Story of the Joe Philbin-led Dolphins

TheWalrus

TheWalrus

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Since coming to town in 2012, in 48 games played by the Dolphins (no playoff trips) they have led after the first quarter in just 12 games (25%). NO TEAM has done worse. Even the lowly Titans and Jets have led after one quarter in 13 games, and the Raiders have done it in 14. Hell, even the Jaguars have led after one quarter in 17 games since 2012.

Getting off to a good start is key in football. Since 2012, teams who lead after 1 quarter win 66% of their games.
So while they might not be getting “manhandled” in 1 quarter, they routinely are NOT leading, which is a problem.

Its not their only problem. On 3rd and short, the Dolphins converted 70% of their runs into first downs, 11th best in the NFL. The problem was they passed on 52% of their play calls, 9th most often, and they converted just 55% of their pass attempts. So they missed out on 15% better efficiency by simply not running enough on 3rd and short.
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More on this, especially the third down playcalling balance, at the link:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/joe-philbin-went-to-miami
 
those 10 that lead this list have a combined 2 playoff apps since 2012. Hard to win consistently when you are always playing from behind.
 
That last paragraph sounds about right. Pass on third and short. Yep. And run on third and long...

And given our record when leading in the first quarter (6-6) and our overall record (23-25 I believe) I would say it apparently hasn't made a huge difference. We clearly aren't achieving that 66% win average in those games anyways...


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I don't have a problem with throwing the ball 50% of the time, on 3rd and 1 or 2 when the defense has 9 guys in the box. The problem is that we need to throw it and catch it better, it's not the play call. Just last week we failed to convert a 4th and short and we ran the ball.

Same goes for running a draw play sometimes, on 3rd and 5 or 6, when the defense has all the LBs out of the play expecting a pass.
 
These numbers say it all about why he is terrible coach.
 
In Week One we just didn't have the ball much on offense in the first half thanks to our D not getting stops, especially on third downs. We will be alright.
 
This was obvious to all Dolphin fans. However, I didn't know it was this bad. Very damning, and this falls totally on the coaching staff.

It's been a problem for years. Not only do we not lead early, even when we do lead, we are comfortable leading by thin margins.
 
FinHopeful said:
Why?
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Shows a lack of preparation. Shows that he is not getting his team to come out of the gates of a game flying. How many times does Joe say in the pressers leading up to a game that "we are looking to get off to fast start"...and it never happens. So that means either he is not able to produce that result or the players are not responding to what he is asking...neither is good.

It is still stunning to me that the best this team has played in his 3 year years was last year vs. SD. Truly it was unfortunate that Philbin's father was passing and he was not around the team during the week's preparation. With that said, the team had a resounding win over the Chargers. 37-0, I think?

Now, PERHAPS, it was out of playing hard for Philbin because of his loss that the team played so well. However, I never been able to shake the idea that one week he is not leading and preparing the team was the week they seemed the most "up" and razor sharp with their execution vs San Diego.
 
kcbrown said:
This was obvious to all Dolphin fans. However, I didn't know it was this bad. Very damning, and this falls totally on the coaching staff.

It's been a problem for years. Not only do we not lead early, even when we do lead, we are comfortable leading by thin margins.
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Coming out flat definitely does not fall solely on the coaches. Players play and they deserve blame for slow starts and giving up leads.

If anything coaching staff deserves credit for half-time adjustments - we were tops in the league coming out after half last season.

Improvements needs to be made but it must be re-stated that the GM Philbin worked under the early part of his tenure here was an absolute bonehead. That accounts for some of the troubles in Joe's first few years.
 
We need to stop deferring when we win the toss. The strategy seems to put us behind early in the game. Have some confidence in your offense to set the tone. In 7 games we started last year on offense we scored twice (TD & FG) and had 2 more FG attempts (One missed and one blocked). So its not like the offense hasn't moved the ball when starting the game on offense.

And to add to that we are much better in the 3rd period when we defend first. We had 5 TD's in the 9 games where we started on defense in the 3rd.

I wish they would use their analytics to look at stuff that really matters
 
The table seems to indicate a correlation between leading in the first quarter and winning. I would like to see the number of first quarter leads between 2009 and 2011 before commenting on your conclusion. The players on the team may have an impact upon this statistic. Further, it would be useful to see the numbers for each year separately.
 
FinfanInBuffalo said:
I'm sure part of this is due to deferring to the second half so often.
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received opening kickoff:
2012: 8 times
2013: 10 times
2014: 7

Out of 48 games they received the opening KO 25 times. I would assume that is about average for all teams but I don't know.
 
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