playoff odds for dolphins

[dolpns13]

i guarentee we make the playoffs. maybe i am feeling good because we just beat the titans, but i feel so confident in this team. we willl be 8-4 going into the jet game guarenteed. i am ****in pumped.

Lol.. I hope ur right bro

 

[Swantoon]

The Dolphins will not make the playoffs. It's nice to hope, but we will not have a tiebreaker over anyone and we have to go 5-2 to even have a shot. This team will most likely go 8-8 and we can hope we get a decent draft pick.

 

[Ilovemyfins4eva]

Lol.. I hope ur right bro

lol so do i. i just feel real good about this team. the truth is we only played 2 real poor games this year out of 9, and if not for the refs, we would be 6-3.

we got the bears now, who i believe are horrendous and i think this will be one of those games where us fans tonight will be calm by the late 3rd qtr period due to the margin of lead we will have, then we got oakland, who although has been much better this year, i still love us in this matchup, then cleveland, who although have played tough of late, we r home and they still do have a rookie qb, i think we r 8-4 going into the jet game with ease.

the jet game will make or break us. if we r 8-4 going into the meadowlands and win to get to 9-4, we r destined and will make the playoffs. if we lose, we r done. that will be the make or break point.

 

[BlueFin]

i looked around the internet at a few sites because i wanted to get an idea if the dolphns chances for making the playoffs were pretty much in line with my thinking and it turns out they are pretty close to my general over-all attitude toward the team and how damaging that terrible call against pittsburgh really was. it turns out it was more costly than i believe a lot of us here understand.

the bottom line is we need to finish the season AT LEAST 4-3 to have ANY chance of making the playoffs and even then the odds are about 5%. even if we finish 5-2 we STILL only have a little bit better than 50/50 shot of getting in. this team needs to finish 6-1 to virtually guarantee we make the playoffs.

considering a 4-3 finish would be a reasonable finish for this team (especially considering games AT oakland AT new york and AT new england). it is very likely that the pittsburgh loss decreased our overall odds of making the playoffs by over 50% at the end of the day. pretty sad.

one thing is clear. in the AFC if this team actually does make the playoffs they CERTAINLY WILL DESERVE to be there. in all likelihood this team in the NFC would have been a virtual lock to see postseason play. there is just that much difference between the two conferences

playoff prospects this year arent looking so hot for us dolphins fans. i guess we better pray we finish 5-2 AND get some serious help. because even 10-6 only gets us to the promise land 54% of the time. not good.

at least we should finally be a more exciting team to watch down the stretch. hopefully tyler thigpen plays well enough to give us hope for the future!

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/East/Dolphins.html

5-2? I'm looking for 7-0.

The Tyler Thigpen era begins.

 

[Shula's Legacy]

At the beginning of the year, I would have taken 5-4 thru week 10. However, I would have thought we would have at least split with Pats/Jets and got one from either Balt/Pitt. Our conf record is going to bite us in the end. I doubt anything less than 11-5 gets us in.

 

[shula_guy]

problem with this one grey is that it essentially assigns a 50/50 chance that any team can win a given game and calculates playoff odds based on that. its not reality. in reality new england has a much better than 50/50 chance of beating buffalo in new england. when this likely outcome type of approach is used miamis odds of making the playoffs are dramatically reduced from 26% to somewhere in the range of 8-12% not good either way and kind of ****ty too considering a team like oakland with an identical record at 5-4 and imo an inferior team has a much better chance at making the playoffs at around 60% in this scenario.

guess thats the price we pay for playing in the best division in football and not holding serve at home against divisional opponents and then getting robbed by 3 hometown pittsburgh officials in another home game. even just ONE victory in those 3 games would have been HUGE!

well hopefully the ball starts to bounce our way sooner or later. maybe we will get lucky and find a quarterback get some nice draft picks and avoid some injuries in the near future. because new england with all their young talent and million draft picks they always seem to obtain is going to be very strong for years to come

Yup it only gives you a general idea of your odds and is not 100% accurate. The more accurate you try to be the more complex the program becomes and at the end of the day it can not account for the human element. Bad calls or players stepping up or not showing up, etc......

I do think it would be interesting to modify that sites formula by ranking each team using the ELO format (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system ).

 

[shula_guy]

At the beginning of the year, I would have taken 5-4 thru week 10. However, I would have thought we would have at least split with Pats/Jets and got one from either Balt/Pitt. Our conf record is going to bite us in the end. I doubt anything less than 11-5 gets us in.

I completely agree and have been saying the same thing, we needed to win at least 2 of those 4 we lost and we could of lost 2 elsewhere to have the same record and have much better odds to get into the playoffs. We lose most if not all tie breakers in our current position relative to the teams we are chasing for a spot in.