On one hand, the playoff panic here is understandable after Miami lost control of its fate. On the other hand, it’s getting a little bit overblown with five weeks left to play, and Miami just one game out with a reasonably favorable schedule.
It’s true that there’s very little if any margin for error left, and it’s true that Miami needs some help no matter what – but not that much help, if the Fins get back on a run.
To simplify this a little, I’m skipping the 10-6 wildcard scenarios detailed elsewhere. I’d also note that I’m not predicting an 11-5 finish, merely trying to detail what happens if Miami finishes strong.
Finish 11-5, win the division?
No team has ever missed the playoffs at 11-5, although that doesn’t mean Miami can’t be the first. We’d still need a little help, but it seems premature to worry about missing the playoffs at 11-5.
One detail that’s getting overlooked is that Miami needs LESS help to win the division at 11-5 – just two games out of nine going our way – than to win a wildcard.
To win the division, Miami would need only one loss each by the Pats and Jets (besides the Fins-Jets finale). Any of the Pats’ five games and Jets’ next four would work, because Miami would win an 11-5 tiebreak against either team, or both, no matter which games the others lost. (I can explain why that’s true if anyone isn’t convinced.)
After Denver, the Jets have two west-coast trips and an always-unpredictable division game (Buffalo). One loss among four is certainly possible.
The Pats’ schedule isn’t daunting, but it includes two likely playoff teams, a division game, and consecutive west-coast games. Counting on one specific upset may be wishful thinking, but hoping for one out of five is different: 5-0 is tough in the NFL for anyone (including Miami, of course).
If this Sunday went as well for the Fins as last Sunday went badly, they could be back in control of the division title by the end of the day. If not, there are three more chances before week 17.
There are various ways to get a wildcard at 11-5 – so it seems unlikely we wouldn’t. The simplest is the Pats lose once and the Ravens lose twice, but you could also have the Colts lose twice, or even the Steelers losing three times (with games against the Pats, Cowboys, Ravens and Titans on their schedule).
Win four, then what?
Forget about the Jets game for a moment, and consider the chances that Miami enters the final weekend still contending for a playoff spot. Let’s assume Miami wins its next four – always difficult, but the schedule makes it reasonable to contemplate.
The only way Miami is out of contention at 10-5 is if the Jets, Ravens and Colts all go 4-0 (one loss among those 12 games keeps Miami alive) and the Steelers go at least 3-1.
In fact, since the Ravens play the Steelers in week 15, a Pittsburgh loss to the Pats or Cowboys (their next two games) would guarantee that Miami remains alive at 10-5 (unless the Steelers-Ravens game is a tie, but let’s ignore that). Obviously we’d prefer the Steelers to beat the Pats, but this is still worth remembering.
As noted above, if the Jets lose once, then Miami can win the division by beating them if the Bills also beat the Pats on the final Sunday. And if the Pats have lost before then, Miami could win the division in week 17 with no help required.
If the Colts or Ravens lose just one of their next four, they would enter week 17 at 10-5 along with the Fins – leaving at least one wildcard available if Miami wins, the other 10-5 team loses, and the Pats lose (since we’d win the 11-5 division tiebreak over New England). A Steeler fade would expand these possibilities.
Some of the above is probably going to happen. If the Fins can fight their way to 10-5, I expect they not only be alive in week 17, but probably control their playoff fate. And if you can’t win the final game with the season on the line, you probably don’t deserve the playoffs.
Bottom line
Yes, Miami has lost control of its fate, at least for now. Yes, as posted in other threads, a 10-6 wildcard looks difficult – but it looks difficult mostly under the assumption that all the leading teams will keep winning consistently over five more weeks. There are many ways for the outlook to change. We don’t need a complete meltdown by multiple teams, only a game here and there, with many opportunities for them to happen. It’s just too early to assume we can’t make the playoffs, even at 10-6.
Every year, teams finish strong while others unexpectedly fade. Upsets happen. There are five weeks left, not two or three. The Colts have what looks like an easy path to a wildcard, but Miami has an achievable path to 10-5, while the Steelers and Ravens have some tough games coming. The Pats are improved, but not enough to assume they’ll breeze through five straight.
Certainly, the Fins could finish strong and miss the playoffs. For that matter, they could lose an “easy” game and take themselves out of it (or nearly out of it). But for now, if they get back to winning, they’ll remain in the playoff chase. It’s not yet time to panic.
It’s true that there’s very little if any margin for error left, and it’s true that Miami needs some help no matter what – but not that much help, if the Fins get back on a run.
To simplify this a little, I’m skipping the 10-6 wildcard scenarios detailed elsewhere. I’d also note that I’m not predicting an 11-5 finish, merely trying to detail what happens if Miami finishes strong.
Finish 11-5, win the division?
No team has ever missed the playoffs at 11-5, although that doesn’t mean Miami can’t be the first. We’d still need a little help, but it seems premature to worry about missing the playoffs at 11-5.
One detail that’s getting overlooked is that Miami needs LESS help to win the division at 11-5 – just two games out of nine going our way – than to win a wildcard.
To win the division, Miami would need only one loss each by the Pats and Jets (besides the Fins-Jets finale). Any of the Pats’ five games and Jets’ next four would work, because Miami would win an 11-5 tiebreak against either team, or both, no matter which games the others lost. (I can explain why that’s true if anyone isn’t convinced.)
After Denver, the Jets have two west-coast trips and an always-unpredictable division game (Buffalo). One loss among four is certainly possible.
The Pats’ schedule isn’t daunting, but it includes two likely playoff teams, a division game, and consecutive west-coast games. Counting on one specific upset may be wishful thinking, but hoping for one out of five is different: 5-0 is tough in the NFL for anyone (including Miami, of course).
If this Sunday went as well for the Fins as last Sunday went badly, they could be back in control of the division title by the end of the day. If not, there are three more chances before week 17.
There are various ways to get a wildcard at 11-5 – so it seems unlikely we wouldn’t. The simplest is the Pats lose once and the Ravens lose twice, but you could also have the Colts lose twice, or even the Steelers losing three times (with games against the Pats, Cowboys, Ravens and Titans on their schedule).
Win four, then what?
Forget about the Jets game for a moment, and consider the chances that Miami enters the final weekend still contending for a playoff spot. Let’s assume Miami wins its next four – always difficult, but the schedule makes it reasonable to contemplate.
The only way Miami is out of contention at 10-5 is if the Jets, Ravens and Colts all go 4-0 (one loss among those 12 games keeps Miami alive) and the Steelers go at least 3-1.
In fact, since the Ravens play the Steelers in week 15, a Pittsburgh loss to the Pats or Cowboys (their next two games) would guarantee that Miami remains alive at 10-5 (unless the Steelers-Ravens game is a tie, but let’s ignore that). Obviously we’d prefer the Steelers to beat the Pats, but this is still worth remembering.
As noted above, if the Jets lose once, then Miami can win the division by beating them if the Bills also beat the Pats on the final Sunday. And if the Pats have lost before then, Miami could win the division in week 17 with no help required.
If the Colts or Ravens lose just one of their next four, they would enter week 17 at 10-5 along with the Fins – leaving at least one wildcard available if Miami wins, the other 10-5 team loses, and the Pats lose (since we’d win the 11-5 division tiebreak over New England). A Steeler fade would expand these possibilities.
Some of the above is probably going to happen. If the Fins can fight their way to 10-5, I expect they not only be alive in week 17, but probably control their playoff fate. And if you can’t win the final game with the season on the line, you probably don’t deserve the playoffs.
Bottom line
Yes, Miami has lost control of its fate, at least for now. Yes, as posted in other threads, a 10-6 wildcard looks difficult – but it looks difficult mostly under the assumption that all the leading teams will keep winning consistently over five more weeks. There are many ways for the outlook to change. We don’t need a complete meltdown by multiple teams, only a game here and there, with many opportunities for them to happen. It’s just too early to assume we can’t make the playoffs, even at 10-6.
Every year, teams finish strong while others unexpectedly fade. Upsets happen. There are five weeks left, not two or three. The Colts have what looks like an easy path to a wildcard, but Miami has an achievable path to 10-5, while the Steelers and Ravens have some tough games coming. The Pats are improved, but not enough to assume they’ll breeze through five straight.
Certainly, the Fins could finish strong and miss the playoffs. For that matter, they could lose an “easy” game and take themselves out of it (or nearly out of it). But for now, if they get back to winning, they’ll remain in the playoff chase. It’s not yet time to panic.
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