Playoff Scenarios for 10-6 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Playoff Scenarios for 10-6

ckparrothead

ckparrothead

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I hate doing this but I got into it somehow so I figured I'll share my thoughts.

Basically it breaks down into three branches...but ALL of them assume we win out. Let's get that out of the way right now. Miami has no right to the playoffs if they go 9-7 and we probably shouldn't even be speculating on 9-7 playoff scenarios because those will drive you COMPLETELY nuts.

Here are your four obvious choice division winners...

Indianapolis (10-1), Baltimore (9-2), San Diego (9-2), New England (8-3).


Here are the teams I consider to be "in the hunt"...

Denver (7-4), Kansas City (7-4), Jacksonville (6-5), NY Jets (6-5), Cincinnati (6-5), Miami (5-6).

Sorry Buffalo (5-6), I'm just not a believer.

We will concern ourselves over the final #5 and #6 seeds, among this pool of teams.

Assumption Alpha: Miami goes 10-6.

Assumption #1: No team goes 11-5 or better.

Assumption #1a: Kansas City goes 9-7.
Scenario #1a(1): DEN goes 10-6, loses to SEA or SFO. BAD
Scenario #1a(2): The NY Jets go 10-6. BAD
Scenario #1a(3): The Cincinnati Bengals go 10-6. BAD
Scenario #1a(4): Miami makes the playoffs. GOOD

Assumption #1b: Kansas City does go 10-6
Scenario #1b(1): BOTH the Jets and Bengals go 10-6. BAD
Scenario #1b(2): Miami makes the playoffs. GOOD

Assumption #1c: Miami makes the playoffs. GOOD



Assumption #2: Only one team goes 11-5 or better.

Assumption #2a: The Cincinnati Bengals are the 11-5 team.
Scenario #2a(1): The NY Jets go 10-6. BAD
Scenario #2a(2): KC is 9-7, DEN is 10-6 loses to SFO or SEA. BAD
Scenario #2a(3): Miami makes the playoffs. GOOD

Assumption #2b: The Chiefs are the 11-5 (or 12-4) team.
Scenario #2b(1): DEN is 10-6 w/ loss to SFO or SEA. BAD
Scenario #2b(2): The NY Jets go 10-6. BAD
Scenario #2b(3): The Cincinnati Bengals go 10-6. BAD
Scenario #2b(4): Miami makes the playoffs. GOOD

Assumption #2c: The Broncos are the 11-5 (or 12-4) team.
Scenario #2c(1): The NY Jets go 10-6. BAD
Scenario #2c(2): The Cincinnati Bengals go 10-6. BAD
Scenario #2c(3): Miami makes the playoffs. GOOD

Assumption #2d: Miami makes the playoffs. GOOD


Assumption #3: Two teams go 11-5 or better.

All Scenarios: BAD

Hope this helps ya'll figure out who to root for.



Notes: Everything has flaws...even my own stuff :)

Flaw #1: Not sure how a common games tiebreak would end up between ONLY Denver and Miami. This would come about only if Denver and Miami are in tiebreak with each other without KC being present...AND, if Denver's two upcoming losses came to AFC opponents.

Flaw #2: Now sure how a common games tiebreak would end up between Denver and KC should they both end up 3-3 in the division, which is unlikely and would require that KC lose to Oakland.
 
Wow. No replies. Considering this is an air tight list of scenarios, with the lone caveat listed at the bottom, I'm surprised no interest.
 
By the way if a mod merges this piece of work with some stupid thoughtless thread that has absolutely no research or coherent sentences in it, I'm forking someone's eyeball.
 
It is good to see someone provide records and tiebreakers but I am going to try to not talk about the playoffs unless Miami wins the next two then I will be talking about them all the time but right now it is all a little premature.
 
I did this with another member last year (updated everyone on all possible playoff scenarios)

It will be a lot easier in a week or two when there arent as many scenarios on tiebreakers, but I guess I'll come up with a few scenarios if I can see any (which I probably can)
 
Alex44 said:
I did this with another member last year (updated everyone on all possible playoff scenarios)

It will be a lot easier in a week or two when there arent as many scenarios on tiebreakers, but I guess I'll come up with a few scenarios if I can see any (which I probably can)
Click to expand...

Honestly I don't see the situation changing much for a few weeks. Nor do I see it getting more or less complicated.

As it is, for 5 games out, this is VERY uncomplicated. That is why for weeks I have been saying that if Miami goes 10-6, chances are we get into the playoffs.
 
ckparrothead said:
By the way if a mod merges this piece of work with some stupid thoughtless thread that has absolutely no research or coherent sentences in it, I'm forking someone's eyeball.
Click to expand...

:sidelol:

Goodwork as usual CK.
 
ckparrothead said:
Honestly I don't see the situation changing much for a few weeks. Nor do I see it getting more or less complicated.

As it is, for 5 games out, this is VERY uncomplicated. That is why for weeks I have been saying that if Miami goes 10-6, chances are we get into the playoffs.
Click to expand...

Well depending on who beats who tiebreakers change. For example in a three way tie with KC and Denver one of them would have to be eliminated first since they are in the same division, depending on division record and which games they win from here on out that can change, also record within the AFC will change.

So there are a few variables.
 
Thanks for laying it out. Basically it seems that we need to root for all of those teams in the hunt to lose as many games as possibly and preferrably to AFC opponents.
 
Alex44 said:
Well depending on who beats who tiebreakers change. For example in a three way tie with KC and Denver one of them would have to be eliminated first since they are in the same division, depending on division record and which games they win from here on out that can change, also record within the AFC will change.

So there are a few variables.
Click to expand...

Believe it or not, I've already pretty much accounted for all of that. There's a lot of interplay going on here.

The scenarios are not 100% air tight, but they ARE about 95% air tight.
 
ONe thing is certain . . . . Miami has to win out . . . but to avoid the stress, they just gotta worry about Jville, I really don't like the playoff talk, because technically . . . we are already in the playoffs, and if we lose, we are done.
 
ckparrothead said:
Believe it or not, I've already pretty much accounted for all of that. There's a lot of interplay going on here.

The scenarios are not 100% air tight, but they ARE about 95% air tight.
Click to expand...

Wow thats pretty impressive then, great work.
 
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