Playoff Watch: Week 13 games (updated)
The following reflects Miami's win in Dallas...
New England at Indianapolis: If the Patriots lose, then next Sunday’s Fins-Pats game will be for first place in the AFC East, and Miami would win the division with a 4-0 finish.
If the Patriots win, Miami could win the division with a 4-0 finish and one more loss by the Patriots (Jaguars, Jets or Bills).
If the Patriots win, the Jets and Bills are eliminated from the AFC East division race.
And if the Patriots win, then Miami’s chances for the #1 wildcard instead of the #2 are improved slightly. If Miami finished 4-0 (but failed to with the AFC East), Indianapolis would need to lose twice more after the Patriots game – most likely at Tennessee next week, and then once again in the final three games (Falcons, Broncos or Texans).
Denver at Oakland: If the Broncos lose, they fall two games behind Miami in the wildcard chase, and their 5-4 AFC record would be the same as Miami’s. This means that Miami could guarantee a wildcard with any three wins in its final four games.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: A Bengals loss drops them two games behind Miami in the wildcard chase (if they don’t win the AFC North). Their AFC record would be 5-5, a half-game behind Miami’s.
San Francisco at Baltimore: A Ravens loss drops them two games behind Miami in the wildcard chase (if they don’t win the AFC North). Either way, their AFC record will remain at 4-4, a half-game behind Miami’s. The Dolphins hold a head-to-head tiebreak edge over Baltimore (valid in a 2-way wildcard tie).
If the Bengals and Ravens BOTH lose, the AFC North runner-up will be guaranteed at least seven losses this season (after next week’s Bengals-Ravens game, barring a tie). This would almost, but not quite, leave Denver as the only remaining contender besides Miami (and the Colts-Titans runner-up) for a wildcard.
No matter what happens Sunday, if Miami goes at least 3-1 in December then neither Baltimore nor Cincinnati can win a wildcard unless either the Titans or Colts lose nearly all their remaining games.
Bills & Jets Deathwatch
As noted above, a Patriots win eliminates the Jets and Bills from contention for the AFC East title. Otherwise...
Tennessee at N.Y. Jets: If the Jets lose (Monday night), they are eliminated from contention for the AFC East title. If the Titans lose, they would be only one game ahead of Miami in the wildcard chase (if they don’t win the AFC South). However, Tennessee would still be a game up in AFC record, and hold a head-to-head tiebreak edge over Miami.
Buffalo at N.Y. Giants: A Bills loss eliminates them from the AFC East division race.
If the Jets and Bills BOTH lose, then one of them will be eliminated from all playoff contention after next week’s Jets-Bills game, and both would be eliminated by a Miami victory over New England.
Games that matter only for ‘strength of victory’ tiebreaks
Strength of victory is the combined final record of all the opponents a team has defeated during the season. This will change weekly, right through the final games. It is very unlikely to decide the division, but could possibly decide a wildcard. Miami’s current SOV is .382, trailing Cincinnati (.500) but leading Baltimore (.369) and Denver (.327).
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville: A Jaguars win helps our strength-of-victory score.
New Orleans at Washington: A Redskins win helps our strength-of-victory score.
Philadelphia at Carolina: An Eagles win improves their record, so beating them in December becomes more valuable in strength-of-victory calculations. If Miami loses the Eagles game, Philly’s record is irrelevant.
The following reflects Miami's win in Dallas...
New England at Indianapolis: If the Patriots lose, then next Sunday’s Fins-Pats game will be for first place in the AFC East, and Miami would win the division with a 4-0 finish.
If the Patriots win, Miami could win the division with a 4-0 finish and one more loss by the Patriots (Jaguars, Jets or Bills).
If the Patriots win, the Jets and Bills are eliminated from the AFC East division race.
And if the Patriots win, then Miami’s chances for the #1 wildcard instead of the #2 are improved slightly. If Miami finished 4-0 (but failed to with the AFC East), Indianapolis would need to lose twice more after the Patriots game – most likely at Tennessee next week, and then once again in the final three games (Falcons, Broncos or Texans).
Denver at Oakland: If the Broncos lose, they fall two games behind Miami in the wildcard chase, and their 5-4 AFC record would be the same as Miami’s. This means that Miami could guarantee a wildcard with any three wins in its final four games.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: A Bengals loss drops them two games behind Miami in the wildcard chase (if they don’t win the AFC North). Their AFC record would be 5-5, a half-game behind Miami’s.
San Francisco at Baltimore: A Ravens loss drops them two games behind Miami in the wildcard chase (if they don’t win the AFC North). Either way, their AFC record will remain at 4-4, a half-game behind Miami’s. The Dolphins hold a head-to-head tiebreak edge over Baltimore (valid in a 2-way wildcard tie).
If the Bengals and Ravens BOTH lose, the AFC North runner-up will be guaranteed at least seven losses this season (after next week’s Bengals-Ravens game, barring a tie). This would almost, but not quite, leave Denver as the only remaining contender besides Miami (and the Colts-Titans runner-up) for a wildcard.
No matter what happens Sunday, if Miami goes at least 3-1 in December then neither Baltimore nor Cincinnati can win a wildcard unless either the Titans or Colts lose nearly all their remaining games.
Bills & Jets Deathwatch
As noted above, a Patriots win eliminates the Jets and Bills from contention for the AFC East title. Otherwise...
Tennessee at N.Y. Jets: If the Jets lose (Monday night), they are eliminated from contention for the AFC East title. If the Titans lose, they would be only one game ahead of Miami in the wildcard chase (if they don’t win the AFC South). However, Tennessee would still be a game up in AFC record, and hold a head-to-head tiebreak edge over Miami.
Buffalo at N.Y. Giants: A Bills loss eliminates them from the AFC East division race.
If the Jets and Bills BOTH lose, then one of them will be eliminated from all playoff contention after next week’s Jets-Bills game, and both would be eliminated by a Miami victory over New England.
Games that matter only for ‘strength of victory’ tiebreaks
Strength of victory is the combined final record of all the opponents a team has defeated during the season. This will change weekly, right through the final games. It is very unlikely to decide the division, but could possibly decide a wildcard. Miami’s current SOV is .382, trailing Cincinnati (.500) but leading Baltimore (.369) and Denver (.327).
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville: A Jaguars win helps our strength-of-victory score.
New Orleans at Washington: A Redskins win helps our strength-of-victory score.
Philadelphia at Carolina: An Eagles win improves their record, so beating them in December becomes more valuable in strength-of-victory calculations. If Miami loses the Eagles game, Philly’s record is irrelevant.
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