Please help me understand this.... | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Please help me understand this....

mandal24

mandal24

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According to Vegas lines...

Of the four teams in the AFC East, the Dolphins are the biggest underdogs to win the divison!

Patriots are - heavily favored (2-9 odds)
Jets and Bills are both underdogs (8-1 odds)
and the Dolphins, the 2008 AFC EAST Champs are the big underdogs (10-1 odds)


How does that make sense?!

Bills have no Oline, no rush defense, no ability to get to the QB, a questionable QB of their own.

The Jets have a new coaching staff, arguably the worst WR group in the NFL, a rookie QB, tension at RBs (possible holdouts by L. Washington and T. Jones). Calvin Pace is out for four games.

My 2009 Records would easily put the Jets at the bottom. I could maybe see the Bills being the surprise team, but with no Oline, Edwards will have a tough time looking downfield.

My extremely early 2009 records-
Patriots 13 to 11 wins (lack of superb defense gets them in some trouble)
Dolphins- 11 to 9 wins (toughest schedule in division)
Bills-9 to 7 wins (All depends on that Oline)
Jets- 9 to 3 wins (Rex Ryans defense and their superb rush offense will keep the team in games but having a rookie QB with no recievers to throw to will make his rookie season a fun year for us Fin fans to watch)

Note- Of the four teams, Fins are the only team with no question marks.. you know what you'll get from the Fins.
Bills question mark is their oline and if Schobel can come back healthy, one year removed from a bad injury.
Jets obvious question is Mark Sanchez. And also if the Jets have the athletes to run Ryans complicated defense.
Patriots question is Brady. Will he be back to Brady of old. Most likely yes but we'll see. And also, that defense is losing its identity.
 
its because more people have bet the fins so vegas lowers the odds to get more people to bet for the other division teams and even out the betting..
 
You'll find, in time, that you should pay very little attention to these things. They have absolutely no bearing on what will transpire on the field come September 13.
 
it also means, put hundreds on the fins, because barring injury, those 10/1 odds are the best you will see this season.. they will only go down from here
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds
Gambling odds versus probabilities
In gambling, the odds on display do not represent the true chances that the event will occur, but are the amounts that the bookmaker will pay out on winning bets. In formulating his odds to display the bookmaker will have included a profit margin which effectively means that the payout to a successful bettor is less than that represented by the true chance of the event occurring. This profit is known as the 'over-round' on the 'book' (the 'book' refers to the old-fashioned ledger in which wagers were recorded, and is the derivation of the term 'bookmaker') and relates to the sum of the 'odds' in the following way:
In a 3-horse race, for example, the true chances of each of the horses winning based on their relative abilities may be 50%, 40% and 10%. These are the relative probabilities of the horses winning and are simply the bookmaker's 'odds' multiplied by 100 for convenience. The total of these three percentages is 100, thus representing a fair 'book'. The true odds of winning for each of the three horses is evens, 6-4 and 9-1 respectively. In order to generate a profit on the wagers accepted by the bookmaker he may decide to increase the values to 60%, 50% and 20% for the three horses, representing odds of 4-6, Evens and 4-1. These values now total 130%, meaning that the book has an overround of 30 (130 − 100). This value of 30 represents the amount of profit for the bookmaker if he accepts bets in the correct proportions on each of the horses. The art of bookmaking is that he will take in, for example, $130 in wagers and only pay $100 back (including stakes) no matter which horse wins.
Profiting in gambling involves predicting the relationship of the true probabilities to the payout odds. If you can consistently make bets where the odds of paying out are better (pay out more) than the true odds of the event, then over time (in theory) you will come out ahead. Sports information services are often used by professional and semi-professional sports bettors to help achieve this goal.
The odds or amounts the bookmaker will pay are determined by the amounts bet on each of the respective possible events. They reflect the balance of wagers on either side of the event, and include the deduction of a bookmaker’s brokerage fee (“vig” or vigorish).
Click to expand...

You're welcome.
 
dolpns13 said:
I hope you saved this on your desktop or somewhere easily accessible, since I believe its about the 10th time you have posted this, these threads are popping up like there is no tomorrow :tumbleweed:
Click to expand...

I have it bookmarked. I'm not even kidding.
 
dolpns13 said:
its because more people have bet the fins so vegas lowers the odds to get more people to bet for the other division teams and even out the betting..
Click to expand...

Still, you must understand what this says. By them dropping the odds down to 10-1 means they are expecting to not get any action on the fins, nation wide and or fin nation relative to the rest of the NFL. They are putting out a sweetheart deal so people will bet on the fins to balance their books.

This is still Vegas saying the fins are not going to be good in the public's eye. Maybe it's because of all the ESPN and other sportscast totally ignoring us or maybe they believe all the tough schedule crap, but either way they are saying they expect us to suck, well at least they expect most of the ones doing the betting to not bet on us, which is kinda the same thing.

Either way you look at it, this is something that could and should make it's way to the bulletinboard.
 
mandal24 said:
According to Vegas lines...

Of the four teams in the AFC East, the Dolphins are the biggest underdogs to win the divison!

Patriots are - heavily favored (2-9 odds)
Jets and Bills are both underdogs (8-1 odds)
and the Dolphins, the 2008 AFC EAST Champs are the big underdogs (10-1 odds)


How does that make sense?!

Bills have no Oline, no rush defense, no ability to get to the QB, a questionable QB of their own.

The Jets have a new coaching staff, arguably the worst WR group in the NFL, a rookie QB, tension at RBs (possible holdouts by L. Washington and T. Jones). Calvin Pace is out for four games.

My 2009 Records would easily put the Jets at the bottom. I could maybe see the Bills being the surprise team, but with no Oline, Edwards will have a tough time looking downfield.

My extremely early 2009 records-
Patriots 13 to 11 wins (lack of superb defense gets them in some trouble)
Dolphins- 11 to 9 wins (toughest schedule in division)
Bills-9 to 7 wins (All depends on that Oline)
Jets- 9 to 3 wins (Rex Ryans defense and their superb rush offense will keep the team in games but having a rookie QB with no recievers to throw to will make his rookie season a fun year for us Fin fans to watch)

Note- Of the four teams, Fins are the only team with no question marks.. you know what you'll get from the Fins.
Bills question mark is their oline and if Schobel can come back healthy, one year removed from a bad injury.
Jets obvious question is Mark Sanchez. And also if the Jets have the athletes to run Ryans complicated defense.
Patriots question is Brady. Will he be back to Brady of old. Most likely yes but we'll see. And also, that defense is losing its identity.
Click to expand...


We have no question marks? I dont think our oline has proven anything, our secondary has question marks also.
 
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