I would say these are the scenarios that must happen for Dave to stay:
1) We must make it at least to the championship game in the AFC and, if we lose, lose a close game that could have been won.
Or, if we don't make it to the championship game ...
2) We must have a very good year, win the Division and get a bye, then lose the playoff game in a very close contest, where we play well but get a couple of bad breaks.
or
3) not getting a bye but having a good record and playing well in December, winning our first playoff game and losing the 2nd in a very close contest.
Anything short of that and DW's gone. 2 and 3 are not sure bets for him to stay but they could keep him alive if we look like the better team but lose a tight game.
1) We must make it at least to the championship game in the AFC and, if we lose, lose a close game that could have been won.
Or, if we don't make it to the championship game ...
2) We must have a very good year, win the Division and get a bye, then lose the playoff game in a very close contest, where we play well but get a couple of bad breaks.
or
3) not getting a bye but having a good record and playing well in December, winning our first playoff game and losing the 2nd in a very close contest.
Anything short of that and DW's gone. 2 and 3 are not sure bets for him to stay but they could keep him alive if we look like the better team but lose a tight game.