Potential Draft Picks and the Impacts of Holding Out

[anthonyvfrancis1989]

I’m not sure if it is just me, but the idea of some of these top prospects not playing this past year really turns me off to the idea of selecting any of them high in the draft. I would only imagine they remained training, and in whatever way possible kept sharp to the game. But looking back on when I played ball (obviously nowhere near the level these kids are playing at), a year off is a big deal. Are we adding to the rookie learning curve, adjustment periods, getting NFL ready?

Beyond the physical portion of it, the other side of the equation really interests me too. Kids that went out their and played their asses off, not missing a beat, really speaks to their work ethic and the types of players I’d wanted associated with my football club.

This doesn’t seem to really be a topic I hear discussed on FinHeaven or by the analysts in the media. What do you think about this?

 

[warren4prez]

The same thought has crossed my mind as well but they shouldn't be punished. I would take Chase over Smith but I would prefer Waddle if we can trade down a few spots.

 

[Feverdream]

I’m not sure if it is just me, but the idea of some of these top prospects not playing this past year really turns me off to the idea of selecting any of them high in the draft. I would only imagine they remained training, and in whatever way possible kept sharp to the game. But looking back on when I played ball (obviously nowhere near the level these kids are playing at), a year off is a big deal. Are we adding to the rookie learning curve, adjustment periods, getting NFL ready?

Beyond the physical portion of it, the other side of the equation really interests me too. Kids that went out their and played their asses off, not missing a beat, really speaks to their work ethic and the types of players I’d wanted associated with my football club.

This doesn’t seem to really be a topic I hear discussed on FinHeaven or by the analysts in the media. What do you think about this?

We've kicked this around, but it is a touchy subject because of the political ramifications around Covid.

Several threads have gotten ugly quickly... then closed by the mods because of it.

The tough thing is that most of the truly elite sophomores opted out... they already were guaranteed 1st round placement and decided not to risk their livelihood... because the NFL wouldn't allow them to declare for the draft last year.

 

[anthonyvfrancis1989]

The same thought has crossed my mind as well but they shouldn't be punished. I would take Chase over Smith but I would prefer Waddle if we can trade down a few spots.

I’m not so sure it is much a punishment, as it is a legitimate evaluation of their current stock. It may be exaggerating to say the year off would turn them into projects; however, that much time away from a proper NCAA regiment is definitely something that will impact how much of, and how quickly, they make an impact o their new respective teams. This will also, obviously, differ from player to player. I guess whatever workouts are accessible will really tell the tale of the tape.

 

[anthonyvfrancis1989]

We've kicked this around, but it is a touchy subject because of the political ramifications around Covid.

Several threads have gotten ugly quickly... then closed by the mods because of it.

The tough thing is that most of the truly elite sophomores opted out... they already were guaranteed 1st round placement and decided not to risk their livelihood... because the NFL wouldn't allow them to declare for the draft last year.

This makes a lot of sense. But, deep down we know there isn’t a GM out there that is ignoring how off the wagon a certain player may have fallen, because of what they had done a year prior (or political reasons for that case).

I didn’t realize the political aspect of things has gotten in the way of prior conversations. I ask that doesn’t present itself in this thread - it definitely isn’t a direction I want to go.

 

[Feverdream]

This makes a lot of sense. But, deep down we know there isn’t a GM out there that is ignoring how off the wagon a certain player may have fallen, because of what they had done a year prior (or political reasons for that case).

I didn’t realize the political aspect of things has gotten in the way of prior conversations. I ask that doesn’t present itself in this thread - it definitely isn’t a direction I want to go.

I was just warning you... It's a certain way to get a thread locked.

But back to the subject at hand... Chase, Rousseau, and Sewell all just DOMINATED as true sophomores last year; and all three of them would have been first round picks, but the NFL won't let a two year player declare for the draft, so all of them were well served to sit out and wait until they could apply for the job that would make them rich vs. take a risk on injury.

I know that Sewell has links to the medical community and may have opted out due to the pandemic, but it's hard to say on the other two. I know that Gainwell had four members of his extended family die from Covid, so I'm pretty sure that this one was honest fear.

...and that's what makes it hard to judge whether there is a character flaw... or whether a player honestly had concerns. Teams will have to do their homework on each player, because all of them are not the same.

 

[Swollcolb]

I mean the one thing with football and it being a physical contact sport a lot of these guys miss seasons at some point in their careers anyway. Having a year to get healthy and build up their body’s with out the physical damage football can cause can be beneficial. But it definitely makes scouting the player and personality that much more important, did the prospect put in the work when nobody was looking, did they still watch film, work on technique, put in the extra work in the weight room when there isn’t external pressure to perform. I guarantee you there is some prospects who did and some that didn’t so in a sense it no doubt increases the risk for this years draft. However I think you still have to be objective when scouting, grade the film, meet the players, talk to coaches and just get as much information as possible. I’m not knocking anyone who held out, but if I have 2 guys graded extremely closely it could be a tie breaker

 

[warren4prez]

We've kicked this around, but it is a touchy subject because of the political ramifications around Covid.

Several threads have gotten ugly quickly... then closed by the mods because of it.

The tough thing is that most of the truly elite sophomores opted out... they already were guaranteed 1st round placement and decided not to risk their livelihood... because the NFL wouldn't allow them to declare for the draft last year.

Us fans need to realize players are people too and not just property. Covid is scary and some of these players have live-in grandparents/parents and newborns and unfortunately, once game day rolls around we as fans expect the player to be available. When Saquuon Barkley got hurt I saw comments on different forums upset because he was on their fantasy team. I didn't see any of the posts you're talking about but it's good the mods stepped because we don't know everyone's situation.

 

[anthonyvfrancis1989]

Us fans need to realize players are people too and not just property. Covid is scary and some of these players have live-in grandparents/parents and newborns and unfortunately, once game day rolls around we as fans expect the player to be available. When Saquuon Barkley got hurt I saw comments on different forums upset because he was on their fantasy team. I didn't see any of the posts you're talking about but it's good the mods stepped because we don't know everyone's situation.

The idea of someone placing priority in their fantasy season over the well-being of another human being is absurd. These folks, like anyone else, need to make the best decisions for themselves and their families, and I understand for many that is opting out.

However, from a business standpoint, GM’s do have to assess these prospects’ value and the choice to step away from the game has to play a role in that. This is also something that I am sure these prospect consider before making their decisions.

A positive note to keep in mind, as alluded to earlier (an excellent point by Swollcolb), some of these guys may very well have kept themselves on point without external pressures and assistance. This would obviously reflect greatly on their value - perhaps a perspective I hadn’t originally considered.