Potential trade down scenario for Phins' #9 pick | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Potential trade down scenario for Phins' #9 pick

Maggot Brain

Trade Bait
Joined
Jul 4, 2003
Messages
235
Reaction score
2
Location
Land of Milk & Honey
I posted this previously at the tail end of another thread where it didn't get any action but I'd like others' input and potential trade downs:

At least once every year during the void between the combine and draft I like to bust out the abacus and trade value chart and work out a hypothetical trade down scenario with the Phins' top pick. This year's hypothetical partner is the Denver Broncos. Why the Broncos you ask? Besides simply having them on the brain over the potential voiding of the "Big Duddy" trade, they have a fairly glaring need for help and youthful infusion across the board on the defensive line. It seems almost a certainty that at least one from the group of Branch, Anderson, Okoye and Carriker will still be available at #9 and if Denver's hot and heavy for whomever's there...let's make a deal.
For rights to the #9 overall pick (1400 pts) the Broncos give up:
R1-#21 (875 pts);
R2-#56 (340 pts);
R3b-#87 (155 pts); and
R6-#163 from Detroit (27.6 pts)
Miami ends up 2.4 pts on the short end of the stick (undoubtedly more after announcement of compensatory picks) but that's a small price to pay to have 6 of the first 87 selections including 4 between 56 and 71 where it seems some of the true draft gems are traditionally mined. If the Dolphins are truly interested in Joe Staley, I would think they should still be able to nab him at pick 21. However, after seeing the numbers he posted at his pro day--two sub 4.8 40's, 4.3 short shuttle and 7.17 cone (for those of you scoring at home, that short shuttle time is better than those posted by both Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch)--I'm not so sure. Of course it goes without saying that this trade would not or should not be made until Miami's on the clock (for both parties' sake) to see who's still sweating it out in the green room at #9.

__________________
 
I did the same basic trade scenerio on the 13th of this month
I had us with the #9 pick whose value is (1350 points not 1400)
taking Denvers
21st pick...800 pts
56th pick...340 pts
70th pick...240 pts
total 1380 so we would have to throw in a 6th to even the pts.

Which would give us
1- first round pick(21)
3-second round picks(40,56,60)
2-third round picks(70,71)
1-4th round pick (104)
0-fifth round picks
1-sixth round pick(183)
2-seventh round picks(201,210)
10 picks on draft day with 6 on the first day
I would love this scenerio
 
I posted this previously at the tail end of another thread where it didn't get any action but I'd like others' input and potential trade downs:

At least once every year during the void between the combine and draft I like to bust out the abacus and trade value chart and work out a hypothetical trade down scenario with the Phins' top pick. This year's hypothetical partner is the Denver Broncos. Why the Broncos you ask? Besides simply having them on the brain over the potential voiding of the "Big Duddy" trade, they have a fairly glaring need for help and youthful infusion across the board on the defensive line. It seems almost a certainty that at least one from the group of Branch, Anderson, Okoye and Carriker will still be available at #9 and if Denver's hot and heavy for whomever's there...let's make a deal.
For rights to the #9 overall pick (1400 pts) the Broncos give up:
R1-#21 (875 pts);
R2-#56 (340 pts);
R3b-#87 (155 pts); and
R6-#163 from Detroit (27.6 pts)
Miami ends up 2.4 pts on the short end of the stick (undoubtedly more after announcement of compensatory picks) but that's a small price to pay to have 6 of the first 87 selections including 4 between 56 and 71 where it seems some of the true draft gems are traditionally mined. If the Dolphins are truly interested in Joe Staley, I would think they should still be able to nab him at pick 21. However, after seeing the numbers he posted at his pro day--two sub 4.8 40's, 4.3 short shuttle and 7.17 cone (for those of you scoring at home, that short shuttle time is better than those posted by both Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch)--I'm not so sure. Of course it goes without saying that this trade would not or should not be made until Miami's on the clock (for both parties' sake) to see who's still sweating it out in the green room at #9.

__________________

From reading the Denver Post pretty much every day, it seems like Shannahan is focusing on getting another D-Back following the death of D. Williams. Champ Bailey is still their main man in the defensive backfield but they could use another solid d-back, especially as Lynch is getting old. They also need help along their D-line, especially if the Big Daddy deal is voided. I could see Denver trying to trade up to get a DE (maybe Carriker of Nebraska?)...so maybe we can deal with the Donkeys.
 
I did the same basic trade scenerio on the 13th of this month
I had us with the #9 pick whose value is (1350 points not 1400)
taking Denvers
21st pick...800 pts
56th pick...340 pts
70th pick...240 pts
total 1380 so we would have to throw in a 6th to even the pts.

Which would give us
1- first round pick(21)
3-second round picks(40,56,60)
2-third round picks(70,71)
1-4th round pick (104)
0-fifth round picks
1-sixth round pick(183)
2-seventh round picks(201,210)
10 picks on draft day with 6 on the first day
I would love this scenerio

Sorry, didn't see yours or I would have picked a different team. What made you pick the Broncos? As for the pick trade value points, I used this chart, http://www.eastcoastsportsnews.com/NFLDraftChart.html, but have seen others where your point system was used. For the record, I'd be pretty jazzed with that array of picks as well. Maybe then everybody else I know (except my one friend who's as insane about the draft as me) won't think I'm loony for watching both days' coverage from start to finish.
 
Sorry, didn't see yours or I would have picked a different team. What made you pick the Broncos? As for the pick trade value points, I used this chart, http://www.eastcoastsportsnews.com/NFLDraftChart.html, but have seen others where your point system was used. For the record, I'd be pretty jazzed with that array of picks as well. Maybe then everybody else I know (except my one friend who's as insane about the draft as me) won't think I'm loony for watching both days' coverage from start to finish.
No problem because I think your scenerio is great and
would look forward to it.As for draft charts I think I used the one
from http://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue.cfm
not sure which one is the correct one
 
Trade down and pick up Joe Staley, the BIGGEST need we have on the team right now. If you don't like Staley, what about Leon Hall or Chris Houston, the other biggest need. Try picking up and extra 2nd rounder if possible, maybe to GB at #16.

If you take Staley, then in round 2 you could have 3 choices.
Take:
WR - Craig Davis/Sidney Rice
OL - Ryan Kalil/Aaron Sears
Drew Stanton/Zach Miller
*Wildcard - Tank Tyler

Round 3 take:
CB - David Irons/Daymeion Hughes
*Wildcard - Samson Satele
 
I would love for us to trade down only if Quinn, and Ginn are not there at #9.
 
It is absolutely essential to our teams success that we find a trading partner and trade down in this draft. And if we can't there isn't any doubt who we take.

Passing on Landry would be almost as stupid as passing on Calvin Johson, but it looks like three teams are going to do so.
 
If Quinn is there @ 9, you take him. Otherwise trade down. (unless Brown puts up better numbers at his Pro Day) Ginn, Branch, Adams, Hall, Landry are all nice players but we need bodies. We have many holes to fill. One guy (unless he is a BPA and fills a critical need isn't worth it)
 
Alright here's another couple of simple scenarios on which I'd like some input. The first one, for the ominpresent Bills' contingent that frequent this board, involves the following:
For rights to the #9 overall pick (1400 pts) Buffalo gives up
R1-#12 (1200 pts); and
R3-#74 (220 pts)
I'm thinking this deal would be contingent on Adrian Peterson still being there when Miami's on the clock assuming the Bills covet him the way I expect they do. While Buffalo gave up an extra twenty value points in this deal it ensures
1. Atlanta won't take him as I've seen a few mocks predicting (although personally I don't know why they would after the way Jerious Norwood acquitted himself last year); and
2. No other team trades up with Miami, Atlanta or San Fran to snatch him up.
Thoughts?

The second scenario has Miami trading down with the 49ers and involves the following:
For rights to the #9 overall pick (1400 pts) San Francisco gives up
R1-#11 (1250 pts);
R4a-#101 from Washington (96 pts); and
R4c-#121 from NY Jets (52 pts)
While Miami may come up slightly shy value wise in this one, I think the additional pick more than offsets it. I've always had great affinity for fourth round picks, especially early ones and this would give Miami 2 of the first 9, as it allows teams to concentrate on blue chip players who, for one reason or another, fell through the cracks on day 1.
Digest and respond, please.
 
Alright here's another couple of simple scenarios on which I'd like some input. The first one, for the ominpresent Bills' contingent that frequent this board, involves the following:
For rights to the #9 overall pick (1400 pts) Buffalo gives up
R1-#12 (1200 pts); and
R3-#74 (220 pts)
I'm thinking this deal would be contingent on Adrian Peterson still being there when Miami's on the clock assuming the Bills covet him the way I expect they do. While Buffalo gave up an extra twenty value points in this deal it ensures
1. Atlanta won't take him as I've seen a few mocks predicting (although personally I don't know why they would after the way Jerious Norwood acquitted himself last year); and
2. No other team trades up with Miami, Atlanta or San Fran to snatch him up.
Thoughts?

The second scenario has Miami trading down with the 49ers and involves the following:
For rights to the #9 overall pick (1400 pts) San Francisco gives up
R1-#11 (1250 pts);
R4a-#101 from Washington (96 pts); and
R4c-#121 from NY Jets (52 pts)
While Miami may come up slightly shy value wise in this one, I think the additional pick more than offsets it. I've always had great affinity for fourth round picks, especially early ones and this would give Miami 2 of the first 9, as it allows teams to concentrate on blue chip players who, for one reason or another, fell through the cracks on day 1.
Digest and respond, please.

I would trade down for Buffalo's 12th and 74th overall pick...take Carriker of Nebraska with the 12th, Kolb, QB, Houston with #74....we will have JT and Carriker up front, Crowder, Zach and Porter at LB's....ohhhh that would be sweet.
 
I am always for accumulating draft picks but now if we did something like that i would start to get some picks for next year.
 
I posted this previously at the tail end of another thread where it didn't get any action but I'd like others' input and potential trade downs:

At least once every year during the void between the combine and draft I like to bust out the abacus and trade value chart and work out a hypothetical trade down scenario with the Phins' top pick. This year's hypothetical partner is the Denver Broncos. Why the Broncos you ask? Besides simply having them on the brain over the potential voiding of the "Big Duddy" trade, they have a fairly glaring need for help and youthful infusion across the board on the defensive line. It seems almost a certainty that at least one from the group of Branch, Anderson, Okoye and Carriker will still be available at #9 and if Denver's hot and heavy for whomever's there...let's make a deal.
For rights to the #9 overall pick (1400 pts) the Broncos give up:
R1-#21 (875 pts);
R2-#56 (340 pts);
R3b-#87 (155 pts); and
R6-#163 from Detroit (27.6 pts)
Miami ends up 2.4 pts on the short end of the stick (undoubtedly more after announcement of compensatory picks) but that's a small price to pay to have 6 of the first 87 selections including 4 between 56 and 71 where it seems some of the true draft gems are traditionally mined. If the Dolphins are truly interested in Joe Staley, I would think they should still be able to nab him at pick 21. However, after seeing the numbers he posted at his pro day--two sub 4.8 40's, 4.3 short shuttle and 7.17 cone (for those of you scoring at home, that short shuttle time is better than those posted by both Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch)--I'm not so sure. Of course it goes without saying that this trade would not or should not be made until Miami's on the clock (for both parties' sake) to see who's still sweating it out in the green room at #9.

__________________

I keep saying that if Brady Quinn doesn't fall to Miami, and I'm now positive that he won't, the move for our franchise is to trade out of 9 either up or down.

I absolutely love the hypothetical situation above. Just begin to imagine all of the players that might still be available at 21 that fills a need on our club:

Ted Ginn Jr WR (doubtful but isn't heating up boards with lack of activity)
Ryan Kalil C
Greg Olsen TE
Robert Meachem WR
Sydney Rice WR
Dwayne Jarret WR
Joe Staley OT (not sure he's a first rounder even with the impressive #s)

Now check out what just the first day of our draft could look like: [speculating that Ginn is already off the board]

Draft# / Name / Pos / School / Height / Weight / 40 /
#21 - Greg Olsen TE ~ Miami (FL) ~ 6-5 7/8 ~ 254 ~ 4.51
#40 - Drew Stanton QB ~ Michigan St. ~ 6-3 1/4 ~ 226 ~ 4.71
#56 - Tony Ugoh OT ~ Arkansas ~ 6-5 1/4 ~ 301 ~ 5.06
#60 - Jason Hill WR ~ Washington St. ~ 6-0 1/2 ~ 204 ~ 4.32
#71 - Fred Bennett CB ~ South Carolina ~ 6-0 7/8 ~ 196 ~ 4.46
#86 - Samson Satele C ~ Hawaii ~ 6-2 5/8 ~ 300 ~ 5.25

If that's not a great first day I don't know what is. All our offensive needs accounted for with outstanding young talent.
 
We may be able to fall back a couple of times, but I'd rather not fall below Green Bay at 16.

If Landry is still on the board, I would imagine he'd garner a ton of interest. Perhaps we trade down 2 spots with SF and pick up their 3rd. Then at 11, Green Bay may want to move up to grab Marshawn Lynch before Buf does. Perhaps we pick up a 3rd and 5th from G.B.

So, now we have a one 1, two 2's, three 3's, a 4, a 5, two 6th's and two 7th's.

We can grab:

1. Joe Staley LT (just what the doctor ordered)
2a. Justin Blalock OG (physical, could be a pro bowl LG)
2b. Marcus McCauley CB (major upgrade at cb)
3a. Zach Miller TE (slow but great hands and runs great routes)
3b. Anthony Gonzalez WR (replaces Welker)
3c. John Wendling S (our version of John Lynch)
4. Quincy Black OLB (need depth at that spot)
5. LeRon McClain FB (physical kid to groom behind Schleshinger)

This group would bring a much better attitude than the malaise we have now. Then next year, we go get a WR that can fly and a QB.
 
Back
Top Bottom