vinivedivichi
So you're telling me there's a chance...
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2005
- Messages
- 1,133
- Reaction score
- 1
- Age
- 41
First off, this is a virtually impossible task. There are far too many variables on draft day that could throw a kink into the master plan, but no question our FO is going into this draft with a vision. The real question is, what is that vision? At this point we've basically heard all the possibilities...i.e. Get big, get better "inside out," find a quarterback of the future as a hedge against the possiblity of Beck being a flop, etc.
Again, I don't know for sure, but putting some things we've heard together and analyzing the track records of the guys we have running the draft, I think we can come up with some general nuggets regarding the possible draft plan:
1 - Jake Long - This pick makes sense on a lot of levels, and you've already heard the arguments for and against the pick, so not much more to add.
2a - Potential targets, in my preferred order:
For the rest of the draft I think we go value and pick guys, regardless of position, that we think can contribute.
My dream (hopefully realistic) mock:
1 - J. Long
2a - Q. Groves
2b - C. Lofton
3 - P. Sims
4 - J. Carlson
5 - 7... who cares? We already have 5 starters from this draft :).
Again, I don't know for sure, but putting some things we've heard together and analyzing the track records of the guys we have running the draft, I think we can come up with some general nuggets regarding the possible draft plan:
- I think, in general, we will build from the inside out. I believe that we are very likely to select Jake Long with the first pick, and I would expect maybe 3 or 4 more linemen/linebackers to be selected before the draft is over. One area that people seem to overlook is our linebacking corps...we are thin at linebacker, and that's a vitally important position in our 3-4 scheme. We are decent as a starting unit, but my guess is that we want to pick up some guys that have potential to grow in the system and maybe win some starting positions down the road.
- I'm not sure I believe that we are targetting Henne with the 32nd pick. It's clear that this regime has some confidence in John Beck (impossible to know how much confidence, obviously), and this is a team that has a lot of needs. The fact is, there will be 4 or 5 guys that have first round grades that are available with that pick, and I don't really know that we pass up one of those guys to pick Henne. It's entirely possible that we really like Henne and we value him enough to pick him at that spot, but I tend to think we aren't necessarily looking at him for that draft slot.
- Based on our regime's history, I think we can expect to see some movement. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised to see us trade down from #32, although I think our second 2nd round pick, or maybe our 3rd round pick, is a more likely candidate. Also, don't be surprised if the compensation we receive is a draft pick next year. While it seems that, based on our roster, we would value picks this year to get better in a hurry, this regime has been willing to trade current year picks for future picks in the past, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen this year if we get the right deal.
1 - Jake Long - This pick makes sense on a lot of levels, and you've already heard the arguments for and against the pick, so not much more to add.
2a - Potential targets, in my preferred order:
- Quentin Groves - IMO an underrated prospect that would be an excellent fit in a 3-4. Assuming we are OK with his heart condition, this would be really nice pickup for us.
- Kenny Phillips - I think this would be more of a value pick. I think we really want to go LB here, but if Phillips is available he may just be too much of a talent to pass up.
- One of the ILBs - Depending who you believe, there could be as many as 3 pretty good ILBs fall to us at 32. Mayo has probably seen his stock rise high enough to exclude him from the discussion, but Connor and Lofton are definite possibilities. If Groves is gone and we think the ILBs could be on the board a few picks down, don't be surprised to see us move down a few slots.
- Calais Campbell - Not sure how he projects in a 3-4, but this would be good value for him if we thought he could fit somehow in the scheme.
- Justin King - This is not necessarily a need position (relatively speaking...we aren't good at CB, but we are bad/really thin at other positions), but this guy represents really good value and could be a great player.
- James Hardy - He's probably gone at this point in the draft, but if available he represents good value at a need position...too good to pass up.
- Sam Baker/any good value OL - This is a unique draft in that you can find starting OTs into the second round. We probably already have Long, but we should take advantage of this draft's strength if the opportunity presents itself.
- Pat Sims (Auburn DT) - We don't necessarily have a need on the interior DL, but this guy has the measurables that we like.
- I think with this pick we look at guys we liked before and hope one of them fall to us. If not, this may be a pick we are willing to trade out of - either for additional picks this year or 2nd rounder next year.
For the rest of the draft I think we go value and pick guys, regardless of position, that we think can contribute.
My dream (hopefully realistic) mock:
1 - J. Long
2a - Q. Groves
2b - C. Lofton
3 - P. Sims
4 - J. Carlson
5 - 7... who cares? We already have 5 starters from this draft :).
