Predicting The SuperBowl Winner(unscientific statistical breakdown)

[zodiak]

Ok, This is my breakdown of the playoffs and who I predict will win.

My assesment was based on Total Offense,Scoring Offense,Combined Offense-Total Defense,Scoring Defense,Combined Defense after that was determined I then gave each team a combined value.

I also factored in home field advantage & QB ratings into the final determination and here are the results.

Team SO TO CO SD TD CD Combined team value
--------------------------------------------

Indy 7- 9- 6- 8- 18- 7 6.5
SD 4- 10- 4- 11- 16- 8 6
Cincy 22- 24- 10- 6- 4- 6 8
NE 6- 3- 5- 5- 11- 5 5
Balt 9- 13- 7- 3- 3- 2 4.5
NYJ 17- 20- 9- 1- 1- 1 5
NO 1- 1- 1- 20- 25- 11 6
Miny 2- 5- 2- 10- 6- 5 3.5
Dallas 14- 2- 6- 2- 9- 3 4.5
Arz 11- 14- 8- 8- 14- 20 9
GB 3- 6- 3- 7- 2- 4 3.5
Philly 5- 11- 6- 19- 12- 9 7.5
_______________________________________________________

For QB rating check nfl.com
ok lets look at the games,I take the Team Value number & then give the Home Team a .5 advantage then the team with the higher rated QB is given another .5 advantage for each slot their QB is rated above the other.

NYJ vs. Cincy.....the jets team value is 5 the Bengals are 8 so to start NYJ have a +3 advantage,now subtract .5 for being the road team,now look at the QB's Sanchez is rated #28 Palmer is #16 a positive difference for cincy of +6(remember its .5 for each rating point above the opposite qb,the difference is 12 points so cut that in half gives you 6)

so with cincy having a +3.5 I pick the Bengals to advance, now the rest of the field.

Philly @ Dallas= Dallas
Balt @ NE = NE
GB @ Arz = GB

Divisional
-----------

NE @ Indy = Indy
GB @ NO = GB

Cincy @ SD = SD rolls
Dallas @ Miny= miny

Conference
-------------

SD @ Indy= comes down to QB's rivers is rated 3rd Manning 6th advantage SD(1.5) winner Chargers

GB @ Minnesota= both teams come in with a 3.5 team value so it comes down to two factors HFA & QB rating minnesota gets a .5 edge in both catagories and wins winner Vikings

SuperBowl SD vs. Minnesota
with no home field advantage it comes down to Team Value and QB ratings minnesota wins in both so the winner is MINNESOTA!

 

[Lilseb93]

Ok, This is my breakdown of the playoffs and who I predict will win.

My assesment was based on Total Offense,Scoring Offense,Combined Offense-Total Defense,Scoring Defense,Combined Defense after that was determined I then gave each team a combined value.

I also factored in home field advantage & QB ratings into the final determination and here are the results.

Team SO TO CO SD TD CD Combined team value
--------------------------------------------

Indy 7- 9- 6- 8- 18- 7 6.5
SD 4- 10- 4- 11- 16- 8 6
Cincy 22- 24- 10- 6- 4- 6 8
NE 6- 3- 5- 5- 11- 5 5
Balt 9- 13- 7- 3- 3- 2 4.5
NYJ 17- 20- 9- 1- 1- 1 5
NO 1- 1- 1- 20- 25- 11 6
Miny 2- 5- 2- 10- 6- 5 3.5
Dallas 14- 2- 6- 2- 9- 3 4.5
Arz 11- 14- 8- 8- 14- 20 9
GB 3- 6- 3- 7- 2- 4 3.5
Philly 5- 11- 6- 19- 12- 9 7.5
_______________________________________________________

For QB rating check nfl.com
ok lets look at the games,I take the Team Value number & then give the Home Team a .5 advantage then the team with the higher rated QB is given another .5 advantage for each slot their QB is rated above the other.

NYJ vs. Cincy.....the jets team value is 5 the Bengals are 8 so to start NYJ have a +3 advantage,now subtract .5 for being the road team,now look at the QB's Sanchez is rated #28 Palmer is #16 a positive difference for cincy of +6(remember its .5 for each rating point above the opposite qb,the difference is 12 points so cut that in half gives you 6)

so with cincy having a +3.5 I pick the Bengals to advance, now the rest of the field.

Philly @ Dallas= Dallas
Balt @ NE = NE
GB @ Arz = GB

Divisional
-----------

NE @ Indy = Indy
GB @ NO = GB

Cincy @ SD = SD rolls
Dallas @ Miny= miny

Conference
-------------

SD @ Indy= comes down to QB's rivers is rated 3rd Manning 6th advantage SD(1.5) winner Chargers

GB @ Minnesota= both teams come in with a 3.5 team value so it comes down to two factors HFA & QB rating minnesota gets a .5 edge in both catagories and wins winner Vikings

SuperBowl SD vs. Minnesota
with no home field advantage it comes down to Team Value and QB ratings minnesota wins in both so the winner is MINNESOTA!

OMG!!! That's my SB pick. I've predicted 3 SB's in a row too.

 

[Charlie Rivers]

Saints

 

[#1Phins]

Sd

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I wouldn't pick the Vikings. They allowed 7.1 YPPA this season, the worst of any playoff team.

Only 4 teams have won the Super Bowl while allowing 7.0 or higher. The two rejects this year among the playoff teams were Minnesota at 7.1 and New England at 7.0. So they are already out.

The Vikings would need a surreal pass rush in the playoffs to overcome their shaky pass defense, something like the Giants managed in 2007. Cris Carter had it correct today in the pregame; You can't defend the pass from the back anymore, given the rules changes and the eagerness of officials to find pass interference or ticky tack calls to bail out passing teams.

 

[Ricky_Fan34]

I picked Vikings-Colts week 4, so I have to stand by that pick. But what I think will actually happen in Cardinals and Chargers.

 

[KDog13]

Cardinals is an Underdog again. They gonna Shock People.