mandal24
Genesis
- Joined
- May 5, 2007
- Messages
- 6,195
- Reaction score
- 7,462
Armstead injury sucks but luckily, Ian Rappaport says it's just a pec strain so I'm going to assume he misses the 49ers game. That man is so ridiculously valuable to our team's success. Once he went down, our OL was a MESS.
This season has me so pumped and I realized resting Armstead (and Jackson?) isn't the end of the world...I'm okay with a 49ers loss Obviously I want to win out but I think our D is going to have to step up for that game. I think McDaniel is smart enough to know our OL blows without Armstead and isn't going to put Tua in harm's way so we may see an ultra conservative game plan offensively.
According to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/upshot/miami-dolphins-nfl-playoff-picture.html
Some things I've uncovered:
Chiefs, Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys, Titans, and Bills have all unofficially clinched (94% or better odds)
The entire NFC East has 64% or greater chance of making the playoffs.
The AFC/NFC South are both a joke
Some funny stuff - if the Panthers or Lions win out, they most likely make the playoffs lol (Panthers have the 3rd easiest remaining schedule)
The Texans are the only team officially eliminated
The Broncos (HIGHLY paid QB), Cardinals (HIGHLY paid QB), and Bears are all but out.
The Redskins, er Commanders went from definitely not making the playoffs to probably making it in a matter of a couple of weeks
DOLPHINS RELATED
As of right now, we have an 84% chance of making the playoffs
With the disclaimer out of the way that we want to win every game...
WILDCARD:
-If the Dolphins were to ONLY win 2 of their remaining games and they happened to be against any combination of the following teams: Chargers, Bills, Patriots, Jets---The Dolphins (with extreme probability) make the playoffs
-We could also get in by beating BOTH NFC teams AND one AFC team
HOSTING A WILD CARD:
-We're going to need to win 4 of our remaining 6 games (Unless we win our 3 remaining AFC East opponents, then we have a 55% of hosting a playoff game)
BYE WEEK
-Pray that the Chiefs lose a game and win out (Unfortunately, they have the easiest remaining schedule in the league)
-Chiefs only shot at a loss is next week @ Bengals (which is annoying bc we also want the Bengals to lose to increase our chances of getting in), possibly vs Seahawks or @ Raiders final week of the season (divisional game, ya never know)
Our Remaining Schedule
-The Packers game is the least important game remaining on our schedule (one could argue the 49ers game)
-If the Dolphins were to win the next 3, we're in with possibilities of hosting a wild card game OR bye week
-If the Dolphins were to crash and lose the next 4, but beat the Pats and Jets, we'd make the playoffs
Games in order from most to least important
1- @ Chargers
2 -vs Jets
3- @ Patriots
4- @ Bills
5- @ 49ers
6- vs Packers
Best/Worst Case Scenarios
I played around with the simulator and chose the worst case scenario for us to get in (there are probably worse scenarios to get us in)
-- If we win our 2 "easiest games" ---vs Packers (NFC team) and EITHER @Patriots OR vs Jets. there is still a STRONG path for us to get in
On the flip side, best case scenario, we win out.. We would either have an 85% of a bye week OR a 15% of hosting a wild card game
Too much work to dive in, but if we were to JUST beat the Chargers or the Jets, we'd still have a >35% of making the playoffs. Not bad
If y'all find anything cool, feel free to let me know
This season has me so pumped and I realized resting Armstead (and Jackson?) isn't the end of the world...I'm okay with a 49ers loss Obviously I want to win out but I think our D is going to have to step up for that game. I think McDaniel is smart enough to know our OL blows without Armstead and isn't going to put Tua in harm's way so we may see an ultra conservative game plan offensively.
According to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/upshot/miami-dolphins-nfl-playoff-picture.html
Some things I've uncovered:
Chiefs, Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys, Titans, and Bills have all unofficially clinched (94% or better odds)
The entire NFC East has 64% or greater chance of making the playoffs.
The AFC/NFC South are both a joke
Some funny stuff - if the Panthers or Lions win out, they most likely make the playoffs lol (Panthers have the 3rd easiest remaining schedule)
The Texans are the only team officially eliminated
The Broncos (HIGHLY paid QB), Cardinals (HIGHLY paid QB), and Bears are all but out.
The Redskins, er Commanders went from definitely not making the playoffs to probably making it in a matter of a couple of weeks
DOLPHINS RELATED
As of right now, we have an 84% chance of making the playoffs
With the disclaimer out of the way that we want to win every game...
WILDCARD:
-If the Dolphins were to ONLY win 2 of their remaining games and they happened to be against any combination of the following teams: Chargers, Bills, Patriots, Jets---The Dolphins (with extreme probability) make the playoffs
-We could also get in by beating BOTH NFC teams AND one AFC team
HOSTING A WILD CARD:
-We're going to need to win 4 of our remaining 6 games (Unless we win our 3 remaining AFC East opponents, then we have a 55% of hosting a playoff game)
BYE WEEK
-Pray that the Chiefs lose a game and win out (Unfortunately, they have the easiest remaining schedule in the league)
-Chiefs only shot at a loss is next week @ Bengals (which is annoying bc we also want the Bengals to lose to increase our chances of getting in), possibly vs Seahawks or @ Raiders final week of the season (divisional game, ya never know)
Our Remaining Schedule
-The Packers game is the least important game remaining on our schedule (one could argue the 49ers game)
-If the Dolphins were to win the next 3, we're in with possibilities of hosting a wild card game OR bye week
-If the Dolphins were to crash and lose the next 4, but beat the Pats and Jets, we'd make the playoffs
Games in order from most to least important
1- @ Chargers
2 -vs Jets
3- @ Patriots
4- @ Bills
5- @ 49ers
6- vs Packers
Best/Worst Case Scenarios
I played around with the simulator and chose the worst case scenario for us to get in (there are probably worse scenarios to get us in)
-- If we win our 2 "easiest games" ---vs Packers (NFC team) and EITHER @Patriots OR vs Jets. there is still a STRONG path for us to get in
On the flip side, best case scenario, we win out.. We would either have an 85% of a bye week OR a 15% of hosting a wild card game
Too much work to dive in, but if we were to JUST beat the Chargers or the Jets, we'd still have a >35% of making the playoffs. Not bad
If y'all find anything cool, feel free to let me know
dance.
