Putting James pick in perspective

[FinfanInBuffalo]

You can't seriously be that naive. One of the biggest parts of the draft is trying to understand not only how YOU value a player but how others value them. How else can you predict how you think the board will fall? Of course your board will be different and no two will be alike, but to think a player doesn't have universal value is being closed minded. To prove the point, most every amature GM here on this very forum correctly predicted that another OT wouldn't come off the board until the 2nd rd.

Any GM that tries to get cute and predict what other teams are going to do as a significant basis for their picks is an idiot. No way would a GM have a player ranked at 19 and choose to wait until pick 50 to draft him because they are "sure" of where all 31 teams have them ranked. The only time you should trade back is if there are SEVERAL players at positions of need that you like equally well. It doesn't matter which one you get. If teams didn't target individual players no one would trade up, EVER. Deciding not to trade back is the same thing as deciding to trade up. You do it when there is a player you want and do not want the risk losing them. Period.

The fact that no two boards from the so-called experts are the same and none of them match what actually happens is evidence that the assessments are unreliable.

So trading our 3rd rd pick for someones 4th rd pick would be fine in your eyes because you don't want to use ANYONES trade value chart?? You can base our trades on any chart you want and we got the short end of the stick, PERIOD!!! :rolleyes2:

Your example didn't happen and makes no sense.

 

[FSU Truth]

Value....meh...

All teams value players differently as coaches and scouts all look for different traits, scheme fit, and overall need of a team in order to establish who to draft...So when we look at someone in the media ranking, it doesn't take any of that into account.

In the end,
Can he start?
Does he fill a need?
Does he fit the scheme/philosophy?
Does he make the team better?

If the answer is yes to all 4 then the" Value" is there.

 

[enigmatics]

I paid attention but it wasn't for several years that I fully put it into play. It was quickly a bonanza. Heck, I don't even want these bets yet they are throwing money into my pocket. That's the same discovery when patient teams draft previously top rated players who slip during the process, even if they don't fit an urgent team. I find myself saying, "How did they get him THERE?" That question is virtually never applied to the Miami Dolphins.

Anyway, I like JuWaun James. But this roster needed a swing at a great player. I would do that multiple times during the draft, using metrics and players who were rated much higher a year ago. James will upgrade our offensive line but we'll eventually realize that all the happy adjustments based on the offensive line were comically overblown, as shouright so astutely emphasized many months ago. The exponential and meaningful gains are from average to great, not poor to average.

Man I love it when you post. You perfectly captured what has taken place for the majority of the last decade or so. The happy adjusters will defend it to no end, compartmentalizing everything that keeps happening each season. There's a reason we're rarely drafting impact players and it's because of what you described.

I'm a full-time trader and have been trading in the financial markets for nearly 4 years now. I cannot tell you how long it took me to finally separate my "need" to earn an income from how to correctly manage risk and my trade management plan. "Needing" leaves one prone to not sit back and logically take advantage of the real opportunities that present themselves to the patient.

 

[roy_miami]

Man I love it when you post. You perfectly captured what has taken place for the majority of the last decade or so. The happy adjusters will defend it to no end, compartmentalizing everything that keeps happening each season. There's a reason we're rarely drafting impact players and it's because of what you described.

I'm a full-time trader and have been trading in the financial markets for nearly 4 years now. I cannot tell you how long it took me to finally separate my "need" to earn an income from how to correctly manage risk and my trade management plan. "Needing" leaves one prone to not sit back and logically take advantage of the real opportunities that present themselves to the patient.

Barnwells and Mays touched on this subject in their podcast and they say the draft is effectively set up for teams that are already stacked for this very reason. Teams like the 49ers have the luxury of drafting the guys that slipped cause they might have to sit out for a season, I think last year they took 2 guys in later rounds that were first round talents but both fell due to injury. Its kind of a damned if you do damned if you don't situation if you're a mediocre team though and Ireland found that out the hard way.

 

[DolfanDuBbZ~]

No, they shouldn't care.

The giant flaw in your argument is that there is no single definitive, infallible ranking of the players. In fact, there can't be one. Different teams run different systems. A team that runs a ZBS CANNOT put the same grades on OL as a team that runs a man blocking scheme. QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, OL, DL, LBs, CBs, Safeties, all evaluated differently based on the offensive or defensive philosophies of the team.

Also, despite the fact that teams (and draft analysts) rank players in numerical order, that is a completely arbitrary way of looking at the players. Player #40 is not necessarily any better than player #30, but people insist on a straight numerical ranking.

You claim that players shouldn't be drafted higher than their ranking.... who's ranking? Yours? Mel's? Todd's? How about the team's ranking?

BTW, there is no one universal draft value chart either. 47 points of lost made-up value.... just laughable.

Well good lord, we have someone who can actually put this into its proper perspective. Alot of what I wanted to say, but didn't have the necessary verbage or thought is in this post.

My thoughts going into this draft were, 2 of my top 3 picks were oline. Hickey was brought here not to dismantle and build a team, but to FIX the team. That a new era had begun with Philbin getting his say in players and the GM working with him to get those players.

Those still bitching about value. Want a team built in the image they deem a winner, or how to build a winner. Never mind different teams, different schemes find a way to get their differently. What KTOWN and others want is a universal system that they like, to be the say all end all. When it takes more than that. It takes flexibility and faith that your system and your way will succeed. If you don't believe in what you are building, how should anyone else?

 

[DolfanDuBbZ~]

Man I love it when you post. You perfectly captured what has taken place for the majority of the last decade or so. The happy adjusters will defend it to no end, compartmentalizing everything that keeps happening each season. There's a reason we're rarely drafting impact players and it's because of what you described.

I'm a full-time trader and have been trading in the financial markets for nearly 4 years now. I cannot tell you how long it took me to finally separate my "need" to earn an income from how to correctly manage risk and my trade management plan. "Needing" leaves one prone to not sit back and logically take advantage of the real opportunities that present themselves to the patient.

When you lose something to the equivalent of 58 sacks. Then get back to me.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Barnwells and Mays touched on this subject in their podcast and they say the draft is effectively set up for teams that are already stacked for this very reason. Teams like the 49ers have the luxury of drafting the guys that slipped cause they might have to sit out for a season, I think last year they took 2 guys in later rounds that were first round talents but both fell due to injury. Its kind of a damned if you do damned if you don't situation if you're a mediocre team though and Ireland found that out the hard way.

This is a good point Add to that the fact that teams that are stacked can trade picks for future picks in higher rounds (e.g. the Pats). They have fewer holes to fill and can afford to give up picks. Not all the draft picks will make the team anyway. As long as they keep improving the roster and replacing veterans, they stay stacked.

Even the Pats aren't immune to bad drafting though. Their failure to draft quality WRs bit them in the ass last season. Hopefully, they will age before they can replace all of their players and neither Mallet or Garoppolo will be the next Brady. BTW, the pre-draft buzz was that they in love with Savage. Typical Patriots. Played it well.